Wolf Money(China property market)
I will just stated my observation on the issue surrounding China Evergrande and the impact on China property sector.
My best guess it will have an impact, on the scale of 1 to 5. 5 been the worst case. I will rate the event at around 3. My best guess the government is going to lead the debt restructuring and try engineered a soft landing. There are likely some tightening on lending to developer and home buyer.
I had a chat with a friend who stay in China, properties in mostly tier 2 or 3 cities saw weak demand. The first tier cities like Beijing and Shanghai is in a league of their own. Coastal cities demand are firmer and prices are holding well. This is the latest I heard. Of course situation can turn negatively on the downside if China Evergrande goes through a non orderly bankruptcy. The situation does warrant some close observation. I will write more at my month end review. Wishing all a Happy Mid Autumn.
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