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Showing posts from March, 2022

Wolf Money(Portfolio update end March 2022)

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  (David Suchet, portraying Hercule Poirot, the Great Belgian Detective whom he was recently given a knighthood for his service to the film industry. The Queen loves a bit of detective work too) Lone Wolf Fund(LWF) Portfolio as at end of March   1.) Cash  2.) Missing texts *Stocks are not rank in accordance to capital invested .  *Just for sharing. Not an inducement to buy or sell . Commentary Another month had passed, I hope everyone is well, market wise. I have been binge watching an old tv series by British broadcaster, ITV on YouTube. I was inspired by the recent release of the movie “Death on the Nile” which feature the famous Belgian Detective, Hercule Poirot solving a series of murder case. The drama series “Agatha Christie Poirot” first air in 1989, same year when the Russian end its invasion of Afghanistan. I find the drama quite timeless, a great classic for the intellectual enjoying a brain workout. I never seem to be able to guess the murderer correctly🤨. As a value invest

Wolf Money(world market review 21-27 March 2022)

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  FX Harsono Indonesia 1949 Paling Top (Top Most) circa 1975, remade 2006 Collection of National Gallery Singapore  Market Summary 21-27 Mar 2022 🇺🇸 🇺🇸 🇺🇸 🇺🇸 🇺🇸  - Fed signalled ready to take more aggressive action to bring down unacceptably high inflation, including 0.5% pt interest rate hike at next policy meeting in May - Powell stated previous inflation projects fell apart and Fed may decide to move more quickly to address the situation  - US Composite PMI Output Index, tracks manufacturing and services sectors rose to 8-mth high in March  - US consumer confidence (MCSI) dropped from 62.8 in Feb to 59.4 in March  - US manufacturing PMI reached 6-mth high in March: IHS Markit in week ending March 19 + US announced funding opportunity of US$2.9bn earmarked by Transportation Dept for major infrastructure projects this year  + Americans filing new claims for jobless benefits hit lowest level since 1969  - US Treasury Dept warmed gold-related transactions involving Russia may

Wolf Bargain(I fear no falling stock market, I fear the YTF.....)

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There is one particular food which I failed to do a review for almost close to 2 years. I had the urge to name it as one of my Wolf Bargain best kept secret. House in a coffeeshop, wrap in a 70s time capsule, tug in the sleepy part of Jalan Besar. I best described my feeling towards this special Yong Tau Foo(YTF) as a stock market participant “ I fear no falling stock market but I fear the queue of Hakka Yong Tau Foo”. Getting the Yong Tau Foo market timing wrong can lead to hours of waiting. There is only that golden half an hour to get a bowl without the long wait. Remember 8am-8.30am from Monday to Thursday. I wouldn’t even try going on Saturday or Sunday. The longest waiting time if I can remember was close to 2 hrs. Of course it doesn’t take long for the Yong Tau Foo to find its way into my happy stomach.  (YTF soup with Bee Hoon) (Option of having YTF with noodle) Yong Tau Foo is one of those common food that doesn’t get the racing pulse remotely excited. The cookie cutter factor

Wolf Money(world market review 14-20 March 2022)

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Latiff Mohidin Malaysia 1941 Pagoda 2 circa 1964  Collection of National Gallery Singapore Market Summary 14-20 Mar 2022 🇺🇸 🇺🇸 🇺🇸 🇺🇸 🇺🇸  + Fed Chair Powell: time to move away from accommodative monetary policy introduced at “worst part” of Covid-19 pandemic to “more normal” one, to reduce balance sheet at upcoming meeting  + Fed hikes key interest rate by 25 basis points for the first time since 2018 + US industrial production rises 0.5% in Feb in vs previous mth  + US retail sales rise by 0.3% in Feb to US$658.1bn MoM - US actual ban on Russian oil imports unlikely as it would further propel gasoline prices, already at record high: media + US housing starts increased 6.8% to seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,769,000 in Feb  - US existing home sales fell 7.2% in Feb compared to previous mth + US initial jobless claims down 15,000 to 214,000  - SEC investigating 4 major accounting firms; Deloitte, E&Y, KPMG and Pricewaterhouse over potential conflicts of interest  - Mod

Wolf Money(interest rate watch 4.0)

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The Fed had raised interest rate by 0.25%. The US Fed had forecast another 6 hikes before the year is up. 3 increases in 2023 and no increase for 2024. The rise in interest rate end the era of accommodative policy started during covid 19 as central banks around the world refocus their battle as rising inflation. Mortgage and debt servicing cost is going to be more expensive. Getting into pink of financial health is important for individual and companies. I suspect the 3 rate hikes in 2023 to be too aggressive with potential recession looming over the horizon.  Wolf Money(Interest Rate Watch)update 3.0 December 16, 2021 This is my third update on interest rate. At the Fed meeting yesterday, the Fed Chairman had indicated tapering will be dial back at a faster pace. The 15B committed reduction in Nov and Dec 2021 will be increase to 30B a month starting Jan. By March 2022, Fed bond buying program started during covid era will end. That will pave the way for an interest rate increase star

Wolf Money(BYD Electric Vehicle)

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  (BYD, Build your dream,build your dollars) The Ukrainian Russian war have cause much pain to end users of oil. Oil at $120usd per barrel is just too expensive to be running on combustion vehicle. Harry Porter would have cried in pain “expensive petroleum!!” when he fill up his Nimbus 2000. Pump price are in excess of $3 a litre. A trip to petrol station will cost $200 for a mid size sedan on a full tank. There are plenty of merits to get an electric vehicle now. If anyone goes into the subject of EV in Singapore, Tesla name would probably come out of that conversation. The local EV market is more than just Tesla. The adoption of passenger EV had been slow in Singapore even with the advantage of low input cost. I had an opportunity to visit one of the dealers of BYD vehicles in UBI. It is an opportunity for me to get a first hand insight of the latest trend in EV. My friend, KK was kind enough to give me an introduction. KK had good experience dealing with commercial vehicles. EV comm

Wolf Money(Book recommendation)

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  “The Sale of a lifetime” by Harry S. Dent, Jr. discussed bubbles in the financial market are unavoidable due to human quest for more of the things we already had.  Remember the famous phrase by Gordon Gekko from the movie, Wallstreet, “ The point is, Ladies and Gentlemen, greed for a lack of a better word, is good”. Wallstreet is advocating greed is good. Greed and bubble always act in concert. Even the intellectually brilliant scientist, Issac Newton was a victim of South Sea bubble which nearly bankrupt him. If one is caught in a bubble, one is not alone.  It is also human-like to be greedy. Greed give rise to bubble. The author did give a good history lesson on some spectacular bubbles that went bust. The south sea company, The tulip mania and The great housing bubble in US that lead to the subprime crisis. Most bubbles if not all bubbles are created by government and its policy. The deregulation of the banking sector during the 70s lead to credit bubble. The removal of gold stand