Wolf Money(Portfolio update end March 2022)

 

(David Suchet, portraying Hercule Poirot, the Great Belgian Detective whom he was recently given a knighthood for his service to the film industry. The Queen loves a bit of detective work too)

Lone Wolf Fund(LWF)

Portfolio as at end of March  

1.) Cash 

2.) Missing texts

*Stocks are not rank in accordance to capital invested. 

*Just for sharing. Not an inducement to buy or sell.

Commentary

Another month had passed, I hope everyone is well, market wise. I have been binge watching an old tv series by British broadcaster, ITV on YouTube. I was inspired by the recent release of the movie “Death on the Nile” which feature the famous Belgian Detective, Hercule Poirot solving a series of murder case. The drama series “Agatha Christie Poirot” first air in 1989, same year when the Russian end its invasion of Afghanistan. I find the drama quite timeless, a great classic for the intellectual enjoying a brain workout. I never seem to be able to guess the murderer correctly🤨. As a value investor, we engaged in our own little detective work which is similar to the work of the Great Detective. We investigate potential company for value until we could confidently part our money. Some companies may throw you a smoke bomb boasting great value and some companies are low profile, always under the radar of investors’ sphere which processed great value. Whatever the case, it takes plenty of concentration, deduction, addition and gumption to find the right fit for your portfolio. A perceived value stock can turnout to be a (Miss) Lemon. A consensus view of an unattractive company can turn out to be a diamond in the rough. Our dependency on the analysis of our little grey cell can’t be underestimated.

US market stage a rebound in March. Key support for the S&P 500 are established at range of 4200-4300. Lone Wolf Fund was up 1 percent for month of March, taking the ytd gain to double digits(10 percent unleveraged) as I can’t resist a second bite of the cherry on Keppel Corp, in process clocking a small contra gain. I would like to think I am smarter and better researched than most participants of the market, unfortunately it was not the case, to be honest I am equally confuse like everyone else with the current state of the market. Trying to earn a few quads in the Era of Stagflation is not something I personally had experienced before. STI index which is trading at historically low valuation but the bear case was for the upcoming recession to wrack valuation further down the kitchen sink. The 2 and 10 years US Treasury yield had narrow significantly to around 5 basis points. An inverted yield curve is just around the corner. An inverted yield curve had correctly predicted every recession except for once since 1955. I personally wouldn’t bet my last dollar against that prediction. I am extremely hesitant on deploying big amount of capital currently. Recession might occur 6-9 months down the road. Stock prices might be more attractive in the future. ( Missing texts)I still retain a high level of cash for opportunities which may arise if the market capitulated. Cash as an asset class may come back with a vengeance. It is very difficult not to get a reaction from Cash after it was beaten to death over the past 3 years by easy monetary policy. Interest rate is climbing and it will be climbing fast. Getting personal and corporate finance in order are essential. The notion describing Cash is King may hold some truth. I was never comfortable with high leverage, the only leverage I took was for my mortgage, even that had been fully paid for. I leave you with Buffett famous quote “ Only when the tide goes out do you discover who’s been swimming naked.” God bless everyone for good (financial) health. 

* The blackout portion was for a particular company which I am supposed to share my view unfortunately I decided against it at the very last hour pending more observations. I like the company but I don’t like the market condition with high oil price, narrowing of the bond yield and the sudden slowdown in China due to covid lockdown. Visibility of the market is poor imho. I may revisit the idea in the future.

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Disclaimers 

All investments is highly speculative in nature and involves substantial risk of loss. We encourage our reader to invest very carefully. We also encourage reader to get personal advice from your professional investment advisor and to make independent investigations before acting on information that we publish. Much of our information is derived directly from information published by companies or submitted to governmental agencies on which we believe are reliable but are without our independent verification. Therefore, we cannot assure you that the information is accurate or complete. We do not in any way whatsoever warrant or guarantee the success of any action you take in reliance on our statements. All information provided are for education only. Buyer beware,do you own due diligence.