Wolf Money(Thai Beverage PCL)sold
The below article is for educational purpose only. Kindly refrain from taking any action. It shouldn’t constitute as an investment advice. Please read the disclaimer. Today, I made a difficult decision to sell off Thai Bev at the same price I bought. I like Thai Bev’s business, but the geopolitical situation in the Middle East over the last few days is giving me shivers. It is my belief, the market is underpricing risks of the Trump administration being drawn into a forever war. Another war front at the Red Sea will create more supply shock. Oil prices are starting to look expensive again. This will cause a drag on the Asian economy. With the stockpile of oil in many countries depleted. $150 per barrel oil might become a reality. I did a calculation on the potential KFC sales by Thai Bev. Last year, Thai Bev’s KFC earned USD $13.1m net profit. If we assume a mid single digit growth in net profit this year. The unit’s potential earnings is around USD $14m. If we put in a high numb...