Wolf Money(portfolio update end July 2026)long post
Space “Jam”(Scam)
Scams are everywhere. The legit and the illegal. “Remember the Time” when a friend named “Billie Jean” sold you an investment that promised high return. Money gone and the friend no where to be found. At least for regulated products, investors still have legal recourse through Fidrec or the court. Some scams are hard to detect. They are sold with no clear definitions in “Black or White.” Most scams disguise as unregulated investment, operating within the grey zone.
All scams should be dealt with extra care. If the amount lost is small, it creates uncertainty over one’s ability to trust. If the amount is big, it creates a financial black hole, causing stress and eventually self-destruction.
I was told of a business opportunity by a close friend. He has nothing to do with the scheme. He is a people person who enjoys meeting new people. My friend is in an organisation promoting business collaborations.
I was told of a potential business opportunity in Nanning, China, by a gentleman named W. He had infiltrated into the organisation just to sell the scam. He invited us to his office for a leisure chat with the aim to sell us the “Nanning opportunity”. He positioned himself as a very successful businessman, boasting about his multi-million dollar office fully paid for by the “Nanning business”. The crux of the scheme goes, the PRC government aims to make Guangxi the gateway to Southeast Asia, by improving the local economy in Guangxi, they are offering tax incentives and long term visa to those foreigners especially overseas Chinese to invest in Nanning. Being the provincial capital of Guangxi, the city will benefit from the investment inflow from the central government. A bit of information on Guangxi. It is the closest province to South East Asia. The development of the province lagged behind other provinces in the coastal area. The central government wants to get more investors from South East Asia to invest, stay and to improve the infrastructure of the city. As part of the plan to convince investors. Investors can invest as low as $15,000 for a start if they are not comfortable investing big amount. Free accommodation and food are available for anyone interested in visiting Nanning for a business trip. So far so good.
After an hour, I still had no clue what W is selling. The red flag starts to appear when we were told the investment involved transferring money in and out from a bank account in China. The person joining the program has to transfer a specific amount right down to cents between accounts. I saw an article by another LinkedIn contributor mentioning some Singaporeans getting duped into the scheme with some prominent ex-politician and NGO personnel being the victims too. The scam uses Singaporeans to sell the scheme, which makes it more convincing than it looks. The worrying part is some of them selling the scheme didn’t realise they are the enablers of the scam.
After the two hours meeting, I came away with the conclusion. It is a ponzi scheme that literally pays the person from the money he receives from recruiting his down lines. The scam has been on going for many years after an internet search. It seems there is a resurgence with more people perpetuating the scam. I warned my friend to stay as far away from W as possible. W was eventually kicked out of the organisation due to complaints by other members.
The moral of the story. Greed can drive some people into doing illegal things which they normally wouldn’t do. With the economy turning for the worst. Perpetrators will take every opportunity to sell you a get-rich-quick dream with the next “big thing” in investment. In this age, scammers will sell you an outlandish investment idea out of this world just to get your money. It is the duty of everyone to inform our friends and family about such matters. “Smooth criminal”(s) are aplenty and “Annie, are you ok?” should be asked before the music stops to prevent the episode from turning into a “Thriller” movie. People with ill-intentions might be lurking. Complaining to the government about your losses and crying “They Don’t Care About Us” is not going to help. Last, but not least, an investment that promised exceptionally high return is “Dangerous” and should be dealt with extra caution.
Would anyone invest in Lone Wolf Fund if I tell you, “Elong Must” is going into a joint venture with me to start a company mining meteorites on Mars? You wouldn’t believe it? Or am I wrong? 🤔. Be warned, don’t moonwalk into a “bad” situation. God Bless 🙏
Portfolio as at end of July 2026
1.) Cash
*Stocks are not rank in accordance to capital invested.
Commentary
The market is undecided on the next step. In our market, the 3 banks continue to support the STI. From my observations, most stocks, excluding the banks, are showing lacklustre performance. After the initial hype surrounding EQDP, the market is settling on some form of normalisation. Unless we have more funds coming to support the market, those existing funds are likely to be more selective about how they direct their capital.
There is an increase in activity for IPOs which does not necessarily translate into better performance. The IPOs market will never work if investors don’t see gains for applying them. Most of the newly listed IPOs are underwater, some substantially. The underwriters and managers need to do a better job in terms of quality and valuation. Leave some money on the table so as for the IPOs market to work again. Work on a win-win strategy.
LWF’s returns stay at 1%. The fund was marginally better month on month, going up ever so slightly to have any impact on overall returns. With OUE REIT pulling up the fund and Hotel Grand Central experiencing a slight weakness.
The general direction of the fund has been short term. Keeping a higher level of cash and position sizing are my strategy. Let me address the high turnover recently. I have adopted a short-term horizon on all my investments due to the potential of a catastrophic crash. At the current cycle of the market, I tend to hold more cash than usual. Most positions are small, which then gives me the flexibility to zip in and out of the market with ease. My current view on the market is conceived from my experience of surviving crashes over the past 25 years. Long-term investment sounds good, until it appears bad during a downturn in the market where good stocks suffer substantial losses. My experience is uniquely mine. Everyone has their own experience. I wouldn’t suggest doing what I am doing. Clearly, my recent trades have not worked out, but I am determined to survive for the longer term. Olam, OUE REIT and Thai Bev were in the out department.
Olam(sold)
The selling was due to the historical weak month for the equity market in Aug. Sometime the weakness stretched into Sept. Fundamentally, there are no changes to Olam businesses. I am rising cash for potential redeployment if the market do correct going forward. I rotate out the proceeds into Thai Beverage.
Thai Beverage(sold)
Bloomberg cited a source working on a deal for ThaiBev to sell their quick-service restaurant. The company operates 500 KFC restaurants in Thailand, making them the largest in Thailand. Selling the low margin business will help them improve capital efficiency. Money could be used for debt reduction and a special dividend for shareholders. The position is situational, but I wouldn’t rule out the possibility of holding stock for longer period as I see improvement in their operations. 1H results would have shown a high-single-digit growth in operating profit. I particularly like the Vietnam business. They own the number one beer and milk company in Vietnam. With Vietnam’s economy growing at 8%. Consumption will go up due to rising income. In Thailand, the new PM is very pro-business. So far he has stabilised the Thai economy. Populous policies are introduced to increase domestic spending. One aspect of Thai Bev business is the rising temperature in Thailand. Global warming has made Thailand’s weather unbearable. Cold drinks and air conditioning are in hot demand due to extreme weather heat.
Vietnamese dong has been strengthening against the Thai baht since the start of this year. The company will have some tailwinds in the next reporting period from currency. As ThaiBev results are reported in Thai Baht.
The condition is right for a BeerCo listing. The profitability in the beer business seems to be recovering nicely over the last 2 quarters. Net profit was up 40% in the recent quarter. If this is not the time for a BeerCo listing, I am unsure if they are going to get a better opportunity to do an IPO.
Towards the end of the month, I sold the position due to rising tension in the Middle East. The Houthi is opening up a new war front near the Red Sea putting another 7m barrels of crude at risk of disruption. Other issue like the rising 10 year and potential rate hikes by Fed and BOJ at the end of the month are my major concerns. I have written my thoughts on it. You can read it here. Thank you.
OUE REIT(sold)
This position is an ad hoc. Operationally, the manager of the REIT did well to improve the DPU over the last few quarters. The debt profile of the REIT will improved due to the sale of Crowne Plaza hotel. Frankly, I would have preferred them to keep the Crowne Plaza Hotel if I was a long term reit holder. The asset has high barrier of entry. Changi Airport wouldn’t increase hotel rooms indefinitely. The jackpot for the reit would be their ability to sell One Raffles Place at valuation or above.
The reit announced some impressive results. DPU increased close to 29% in the latest half yearly results. Hospitality and lower interest cost help powered the growth. Their cost of funding should move towards the 3% within the next 6 to 12 months, which will add to DPU. The reit is likely to show DPU growth for the next year or so. On an annualised basis, the reit is trading at close to 7% yield. The position was sold due to stock price hitting my trail stop. I risked 2/3 of my profit and I am unwilling to suffer a loss on a winning trade. LWF holds no share in the REIT.
Hotel Grand Central
The company’s shares continue to trade at ridiculously low valuations. The stock portfolio has increased in value due to OCBC’s surge. The stock portfolio that comprises mainly local companies with 90% invested in OCBC, is worth in the ballpark of $47m or 6c per Hotel Grand Central share. Cash and investments alone is worth 40c per Hotel Grand Central share. The company is in a net cash position. This year they are likely to add to their cash pile of $254m as there is no major capex required. The company will be reporting 1H 26 results mid of August. I hope they follow through on their promise to undertaking some form of value creation, communicated during the last AGM.
Cash
There was a net inflow of capital due to sale of Olam. High yield savings account, fixed deposit and Singapore Savings Bonds are my prefer way of holding short term liquidity. Liquid assets within portfolio are above 90%.
Summary
This year LWF has been underperforming the general market. I have step off the pedal intentionally. LWF was lucky not to get involved in AI related stocks. The sector is going through some heavy corrections. I adopted a short term view on the market given the mid term election is around the corner. Volatility will increase towards the day of election. I will continue to manage the current holding I have. I wouldn’t be rushing into a purchase. I now favour stocks that trades at a lower beta. Businesses that are less likely to be disrupted by the onslaught of AI will featured more regularly in my portfolio. God Bless. 🙏
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Disclaimers
All investments is highly speculative in nature and involves substantial risk of loss. We encourage our reader to invest very carefully. We also encourage reader to get personal advice from your professional investment advisor and to make independent investigations before acting on information that we publish. Much of our information is derived directly from information published by companies or submitted to governmental agencies on which we believe are reliable but are without our independent verification. Therefore, we cannot assure you that the information is accurate or complete. We do not in any way whatsoever warrant or guarantee the success of any action you take in reliance on our statements. All information provided are for education only. Buyer beware,do you own due diligence.
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