Wolf Money(Thai Beverage PCL)sold

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The below article is for educational purpose only. Kindly refrain from taking any action. It shouldn’t constitute as an investment advice. Please read the disclaimer.

Today, I made a difficult decision to sell off Thai Bev at the same price I bought. I like Thai Bev’s business, but the geopolitical situation in the Middle East over the last few days is giving me shivers. It is my belief, the market is underpricing risks of the Trump administration being drawn into a forever war. Another war front at the Red Sea will create more supply shock. Oil prices are starting to look expensive again. This will cause a drag on the Asian economy. With the stockpile of oil in many countries depleted. $150 per barrel oil might become a reality.

I did a calculation on the potential KFC sales by Thai Bev. Last year, Thai Bev’s KFC earned USD $13.1m net profit. If we assume a mid single digit growth in net profit this year. The unit’s potential earnings is around USD $14m. If we put in a high number of 25x p/e. The unit will be worth USD $350m, which is about SGD $450m or literally 2c worth per share in Thai Beverage. Big money? I don’t know 

(The 500 plus KFC restaurants earned Thai Bev USD 13.1m in 2025)


The upcoming Fed and BOJ meetings next week are likely to see them tightening interest rates. The UST 10 year is trading at its highest this year. It might force the hand of the Fed to raise rates again. Japan is experiencing high inflation and a fast falling yen. A move on rates is possible, which will tighten the financial conditions in the market further. The high turnover of my portfolio is due to circumstances that are beyond my control. I seek your understanding. Brokerage fees will be accounted at the end of the month. God bless. More details at the end of the month.

(Image credit: CNBC: 10 year UST at 1 year high)


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Disclaimers 

All investments is highly speculative in nature and involves substantial risk of loss. We encourage our reader to invest very carefully. We also encourage reader to get personal advice from your professional investment advisor and to make independent investigations before acting on information that we publish. Much of our information is derived directly from information published by companies or submitted to governmental agencies on which we believe are reliable but are without our independent verification. Therefore, we cannot assure you that the information is accurate or complete. We do not in any way whatsoever warrant or guarantee the success of any action you take in reliance on our statements. All information provided are for education only. Buyer beware,do you own due diligence.

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