Wolf Money(portfolio review end 2025)long post

 

(Image credit: Freepik.com)

Before I start, I would like to pray for the victims and families of the horrific tragedy at Bondi Beach and those affected by the floods across South East Asia. May God grant those affected with peace and strength in their recovery. Amen. 🙏

My review will start by giving thanks to all my friends for their friendship and wisdom. With your kindness and guidance, my world is a much better place. Please take a rain cheque for more lunches and coffee in the coming year.

Commentary 

Lone Wolf Fund(LWF)

Portfolio as at end of Dec 2025

1.) Cash

2.) Genting Singapore

*Stocks are not rank in accordance to capital invested. 

*Just for sharing. Not an inducement to buy or sell.

LWF had a reasonable 2025. I probably did “67” for the year. The total return included dividends and cash yield came in at 18.5% unleveraged, which is higher than the previous 5 years average total returns of 17.5% and 13% over a 20-year period. Although the return was a little under STI returns. On a risk-adjusted basis, I am grateful for the profit made, given I am on a more defensive stance. The performance is lower than the STI index’s 22.5% improvement. If 4% dividends were added to the STI returns, STI would have achieved a remarkable total return of 26.5%, an eye-popping feast which the market hasn’t seen in decades. 

The majority of 2025 returns on Lone Wolf Fund came from Banyan Group’s 56% gains. There were gains in ComfortDelGro and GRAB too. The worse performance went to Genting SP with a 6% drawdown. ComfortDelGro and Thai Bev were disappointing due to their underperformance. I was expecting them to do better in 2025. Even though I made small gains in both stocks, it is still an underwhelming performance from both companies. Both ended the year with negative share prices. Thai Beverage had the unfortunate honour of being the wooden spooner for the worst performing index stock in 2025. Below are my 6-year returns if it remotely interest you. Just a note of caution, past performance is not an indicative of future performance.🙏

LWF past 6 years total returns

2020 +13% (ST Engineering)

2021 +15% (Boustead Singapore)

2022 +10% (Keppel Corporation)

2023 +14% (Boustead Projects)

2024 +36% (Great Eastern, Valuetronics, Boustead Singapore, SingPost)

2025 +18.5% (Banyan Group, Grab)

Volatility was back in 2025 due to Trump’s trade war causing a massive correction in April. The market recovered after the Trump administration toned down their rhetoric. All US indexes experienced another double-digit gain. The third double-digit gains in 3 years.

I will likely follow the path of 2025 with selected purchases of undervalued companies without fully extending beyond my guardrails. I am not entirely comfortable with the market given the problems facing the American and the Chinese economies. Our economy is in for a slowdown as major economies are facing weaker growth. The drop in oil price adds another pressure to our growth. I will seek to improve my overall returns by mid single digits with sensible and well-executed purchases. I have limited patience in my current portfolio. An improvement in their results will be anticipated closely. I am expecting lesser turnover in portfolio companies given the limited opportunity presented to me. I might have one or two ideas left in my hat. No idea if that translates into tangible action. 

What will 2026 bring? To be honest, I don’t know. Major market events likely to defined next year include, but not limited to, interest rate movement and the US mid-term election happening at the end of 2026. Locally, the opening of RTS will be the major event for next year. 

Conventional wisdom has it, the market will be under pressure if the Republican Party loses the Senate and the House of Representatives to the Democrats. It will relegate Trump to a lame-duck president for the subsequent two years due to the difficulty in pushing through his pro-business and market deregulation policies. That might spell trouble for Wall street especially in the areas of cryptocurrency and AI, which are pet subjects of Trump’s administration.

I find the commodities space attractive, especially in the area of oil & gas. The industry is not rocket science. The lower the capex and opex, leading to lower output and thus higher price. With many commodities on bull run, the price of oil is still left in the shadow. The world transition out of hydrocarbons will have a long tail end. In the meantime, always prepare for price shock. Today’s abundant, is tomorrow scarcity. I will try hard to look for suitable candidates for my portfolio. No surety it would translate into action. 

Thai Beverage(sold)

There was never a quiet moment in Thai politics. PM Aruntin declared a general election to be held on the 8th Feb 2026. There were renewed hostilities at the border between Thailand and Cambodia. My best guess, the latest conflict was driven by Thai domestic politics consideration for the upcoming election. The latest ceasefire should be taken with a pinch of salt. The positive of the half-half policy introduced by the Thai government is having a material impact on businesses in Thailand. F&B sector is experiencing a better trading environment. The recent interest rate cut to 1.25% by the Thai central bank will be supportive of the economy. For corporate action, FNN, a subsidiary of Thai Beverage, has shelled out close to $300m for an additional stake in Vinamilk, raising their stake in the largest milk company in Vietnam to just under 25%. It was transacted at around market price. The purchase alerted Fitch to put Thai Bev’s credit rating on a negative watch. The deal wasn’t bad in my view, but piling on more debt on already debt laden balance sheet is the problem here. Right deal at wrong timing? Perhaps. When a company has more debt, there will be less equity around. That is plain economics. Thai Beverage 1Q results will make an interesting read given the confluence of factors. I like the business, but I just don’t like how the shares are traded given the shares is trading with cd. I sold my position in Thai Beverage due to the shares breaching my support level, in process taking a 3% haircut on my latest position. Part of the capital was redeployed to Genting Singapore.

Fu Yu Corporation(sold)

The plot thickens with the redesignate of the deputy CFO to General Manager position. It is seriously quite painful to see one of the oldest contract manufacturers struggling with management issues. The proceeds from Fu Yu’s sales were rolled over to Genting Singapore.

Genting Singapore

I re-entered the stock that I exited 9 months ago. The recent 3Q put the fundamentals back into play. What has changed over the past 9 months? The Malaysian Ringgit had strengthened close to 10% against the Singapore dollar. If the RM continues to rise against our currency, tourists from Malaysia will get better value for coming into Singapore. The bid for the Thailand casino license had been canned with immediate effect due to inability to vote on the casino bill. Furthermore, the Thai PM has given an undertaking to China not to build casinos targeting Chinese. Without the Chinese crowd, casino investment wouldn’t make business sense. As the parent company is already RM $39b in debt. Genting Malaysia won a bid for a New York casino license. The cost of the NY casino? USD $5.5b. Genting Group must find a way to fund all those expenses. All indicators are pointing towards cash rich Genting Singapore for capital.

(Tourists enjoying a “drink” from the Merlion)

Cash rich Genting Singapore is likely to provide the Genting Group with the much-needed cash to pay down their debt. RWS new facilities, The Laurus hotel, Minionland, Oceanarium and Weave mall are starting to contribute to Genting Sp non-gaming bottomline. RWS 2.0 will have a long development period. It is unlikely $6.8b will be spent on the gate go. More likely to build as you earn. Project by project. Genting Singapore is my “RTS play”. Right Timing Stock? Run To Sky? Ringgit To Soar? Or simply Roulette, Texas Holdem and Slot machine. 

(Minion land, RWS)

Cash

There was an increase in cash due to sale of Thai Bev and Fu Yu, which was followed by an outflow of cash into Genting Singapore. Cash is generating low yield in some saving accounts while waiting for deployment. Interest rates were generally down for the whole of 2025. That had an impact on cash yield.

Summary 

2026 will be a watershed year for a lot of Singapore companies, especially in areas of retail, f&b, hospitality, medical and REITs. As the RTS opens, more out flow of our currencies to Malaysia are to be expected. Of course, there will be an increase in tourists coming from Malaysia, but I am unsure if that can offset the currency outflow to Malaysia. I am anticipating more bankruptcies and closures in Singapore. Singaporeans used to lower prices in Malaysia, will find it hard to adjust to the higher prices in Singapore. The “Earn Singapore dollar and spend Malaysian Ringgit” phenomenon will be more prevalent in 2026 and beyond. Unless our currency weakens towards the SGD$1: RM$2.50, currency outflows will continue at higher frequency. I suspect government might introduce some form of shopping mall CDC vouchers to inject liquidity, helping the retailers/reits if the situation of currency outflow to Malaysia is much greater than anticipated. 

(Image credit: Malay Mail; the first test run on the Singapore-JB RTS)

Tourists from less well off countries may opt for hotels in JB due to the lack of budget accommodation in Singapore. Traveling to Singapore via RTS for a day tour only. Those tourists are unlikely to contribute much to local spending. A few Grab and photo opportunities at hawker centre is not going to generate much tourism receipts. Foreigners without any expat package may also opt for housing in JB to save money on rental by making a daily commute to Singapore for work. Will it lower the rental demand for housing? A possibility. However, there are opportunities for the two countries to work together to make the JB-Singapore SEZ a success. The potential disruption it brings to the local economy can’t be ignored either.

(Headline credit: Mothership; Hotelier agrees Singapore is an expensive place for tourists)

The only positive sector with the opening of RTS is likely to be concentrated in our gaming industry with the ease of travelling for gamblers coming from Johor. I am worried about the long term survival of some local businesses. When it comes to investing, I prefer Singapore companies that have an ASEAN footprint. Indochina is where the growth is coming. As for AI, it is still in its infancy. Technology hasn’t reached a stage where large numbers of jobs are being made redundant. AI is a sector worth taking a closer look where opportunities and disruption come hand in hand.  AI will make its grand entry as the technology of choice for scammers in 2026 before AI can start contributing to the improvement of humans in a substantial way. A word of caution, never take any videos or pictures at face value especially coming from social media. As for my personal wish, praying for better health and safety for my family. I will be looking for a quick start in the investment year of the horse, no horsing around, getting down to serious work. 

A message of hope….

(Image credit: ABC News; Cliff Young)

If you have not done well in 2025, there is always hope for next. A story came to my mind during my conversation with a friend from Sydney. In 1983, a 61-year-old farmer from Beech Forest, Victoria, by the name of Cliff Young with no formal training in long distance running beat a field of highly qualified professional runners in an ultra marathon race between Sydney and Melbourne that stretches 875km. Cliff Young was clearly an outlier. He was the Forrest Gump of Australia, the underdog no one saw coming. He inspired a generation of Australian runners, a true Aussie icon. His job of chasing thousands of sheep for days without sleep at his farm helped set the foundation for his achievement. That was his winning strategy. During the race, no one told him, he was supposed to sleep for 6 hours daily before proceeding with the race. He eventually won the race at a record time with 10 hours to spare over the second-fastest runner. In the most humble way, he made the incredible gesture of sharing his $10,000 prize money with the rest of the runners who finished the race.

I hope the story inspires you to continue to work passionately for the things you love. Even when the chips are down and no one believes in you. With determination, one day, everyone can achieve greatness in their own right with kindness intact as well. Happy New Year and Best Wishes for 2026. God Bless. 

Please consider following us on telegram for the latest update on Lone Wolf investor by clicking on the link below. No form filling, no payment required, no collection of data, no data mining, no hard selling, no obligation. 

https://t.me/joinchat/oCgkD3sQFRMzMWM1

Disclaimers 

All investments is highly speculative in nature and involves substantial risk of loss. We encourage our reader to invest very carefully. We also encourage reader to get personal advice from your professional investment advisor and to make independent investigations before acting on information that we publish. Much of our information is derived directly from information published by companies or submitted to governmental agencies on which we believe are reliable but are without our independent verification. Therefore, we cannot assure you that the information is accurate or complete. We do not in any way whatsoever warrant or guarantee the success of any action you take in reliance on our statements. All information provided are for education only. Buyer beware,do you own due diligence.