Wolf Money(portfolio update end Feb 2022)

 

This coffin’s for you, little boy, don’t be afraid, lie down,

A bullet called life clutched tight in your fist,

We didn’t believe in death, look – the crosses are tinfoil.

Do you hear – all the bell towers tore out their tongues?

We won’t forget you, believe it, believe it, be …

Belief bleeds down the seam inside your sleeve,

Chants, prayers, psalms swell up in a lump in your throat

In the middle of this damned winter all dressed in khaki,

And February, getting the ink, is sobbing.

And the candle drips on the table, burning and burning…

By Iya Kiva, Ukrainian Poet

Lone Wolf Fund(LWF)

Portfolio as at end of January 

1.) Cash 

*Stocks are not rank in accordance to capital invested. 

*Just for sharing. Not an inducement to buy or sell.

Commentary 

I am supposed to have the February month off until the volatility of the market woke me up from my slumber. The market had been more volatile due to increasing geopolitical risk in the eastern bloc. My prayer goes to people of Ukraine and the Russian soldiers which were sent by their government to fight a senseless war. I hope cool heads will prevailed. God Bless humanity. 

All the major US indexes are in corrective mode. I made a decision to hold 100% cash in my portfolio after selling GRAB(test case) and Keppel Corp just before the war broke out. In process clocking my target for the year of a mid to high single percentage return for LWF. Lone Wolf Fund is up 9 percent year to date. The S&P 500 chart is sending me an uncomfortable signal(chart below). I seriously got no idea how to make out of the reading. I have no idea how The Ukraine Russia war is going to pan out. I am taking out an insurance by having no position. One pre condition of a good stock market is to have a peaceful world free from armed conflict.

 

(Head & shoulders chart formation)

There are plenty of risks the market need to work through if we are to regain loss ground. First the geopolitical risk of a potential war in Europe involving the American, Nato and Russia can’t be rule out. If it does happen all bets are off for a quick recovery. We will be staring at World War 3. Secondly even if the situation doesn’t go the extreme way of a world war, high Inflation would probably kill the market, Fed is likely to be force into a corner to raise rates faster than a normal cycle. Oil price is running hot at 100 bucks a barrel. Higher gas price translate into an invisible tax on consumers. Given all sort of other inflationary pressures having an impact on consumers spending due to supply chain issue arise from covid, higher gas price further increase the difficulty of ordinary citizens going about their life. In Singapore, in my observation, cooked food price increased are on steroid. Operator is increasing their bowl of noodle by a dollar instead of usual 50c jumped. Interest rate are also slowly moving up. Mortgagors are paying more interest for their property loan as compare to end of last year. The interest rate situation will likely be more acute 3 to 6 months down the road. Conventional wisdom has it, the end of bull market is in conjunction with high inflation. I will take stock to observe the market situation over the next couple of months. Cash might not be ideal but the alternatives are neither appealing. 

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