Wolf Money(world market review 2-9 May 2022)

 

National Galley Singapore 

Former Supreme Court 

Historical Corridor  

Market Summary 2-9 May 2022

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- US announced sharpest rate hike in 22 years, raise rates by 50 bps, starts balance sheet reduction June 1 

- US trade deficit surged to record high in March to US$109.8bn, up by 22.3%

+ US nonfarm added 428,000 jobs in April, unemployment rate held steady at 3.6%, wages continued to climb 

- US worker productivity fell at steepest pace since 1947 in Q1, nonfarm productivity plunged 7.5% annualised rate 

- US stock fell on Friday to close out tumultuous week, Dow drops for 6th straight week , S&P suffers longest weekly losing streak since 2011

+ US 10-year real yield is back in positively territory, signalling end to negative real rates 

- US can’t rule out 75 bps rate hikes: Fed’s Barkin 

+ US private payrolls rose by 247,000 jobs in April, below expected: ADP

- US major banks including JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, Citibank raised prime rate to 4% after Fed move

- US services industry growth slowed in April with employment contracting for 2nd time this year: ISM survey 

- US added >80 Chinese firms, including JDcom and Pinduoduo to list of entities facing possible delisting 

+ US regulators are in China for talks to settle dispute over auditing compliance of US listed Chinese firms: sources  

+ US employers posted record 11.5m job earnings in March, unprecedented 2 jobs openings for every person unemployed 

+ Airbnb’s booking hit new high in Q1, fresh signal travel rebound 

- Florida pension fund seeking to stop Musk from completing US$44bn takeover Twitter shareholder lawsuit  

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- China recorded largest quarterly capital outflows on record in Q1, total US$17.5bn worth of portfolio outflows in March, included US$11.2bn in bonds, the rest were equities 

+ China will deepen capital market reform, facilitate fair and orderly competition: Xi

+ China’s central bank issued 100bn yuan of relending facilities to support coal development and energy storage 

- China’s Caixin services PMI fell to 36.2 in April vs 42 in March, lowest in over 2 years   

+ China’s final consumption contributed 69.4% to the expansion in GDP in Q1, up 4.8% YoY, retail sale consumer goods up 3.3% 

+ China rolls out measures to support small firms, export sector to help companies to cope with challenges 

+ China will accelerate de-dollarisation efforts to protect against similar financial sanctions to limit impact US financial weapons 

+ China will roll out more support measures to stabilise employment: cabinet 

+ China new policies to support big tech innovation: state newspaper 

- China car sales drop 48% in April stood at 1.17m units  

+ China to auction 324,000 tons of imported soybeans through competitive bidding to stabilise market 

- China’s trade seen faltering in April as Covid curbs hit output

+ Chinese economy to recover by end May: analysts 

+ China to further regulate coal prices by clarifying reasonable long-term and spot price fluctuation range 

+ China world larges hydropower station, still under construction, exceeded 10bn kWh electricity so far this year

+ Guangdong leads Chinese provinces in Q1 GDP, Xinjiang tops in growth 

+ Shanghai >70% of 1800 essential industrial enterprises have resumed production 

+ Shanghai issued 43.5m yuan in coupons for tech companies to tide over epidemic 

- Chinese yards to halt work on Russian Arctic LNG2 modules 

+ China’s EV buyers may get subsidies from local govts to boost industry 

- Didi Global revealed in annual report it faces SEC probe over NYSE IPO 

+ HK John Lee officially confirmed as new chief executive

- HK economy posted contraction of 4% on yearly basis in Q1 

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+ Japan to reopen borders to int’l tourists in June 

+ Japan Airlines forecasts return to profit in FY2022 on expectations travel demand will recover 

- Japan >40% of firms to raise prices within a year: survey 

+ Japan will turn to nuclear power to reduce dependence on fossil fuel imports: PM

- Russians may be banned from buying EU real estate 

+ Ruble hits 2-year high against dollar, euro 

- Russian selling part of its estimated US$70bn in reserves allocated to China, partly responsible for the huge outflow 

- Worldwide factory output falls for first time since June 2020 as supply conditions worsen 

+ Global trade up 2.1% in April despite Russia-Ukraine crisis and China’s Covid-19 curbs 

- UN: financial firms face US$225bn in water-related losses with 1/3 doing nothing to assess potential impact, warned 40% shortfall in supply by 2030 if water consumption and production patterns do not change 

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+ ECB may need to raise interest rates as early as July to stop “extremely high” inflation: ECB board member Schnabel 

+ ECB key rate should be back in positive territory by year end: French central bank chief 

- ECB must quickly raise interest rates in line with US given high inflation in euro zone: Germany’s Ifo institute

- European businesses in China increasingly looking to shift investments to other markets due to strict Covid-19 measures: chamber 

- EU plans embargo goes beyond borders of Europe: media reports 

- Europe can’t replace Russian gas: Shell CEO

- EU aims to cut off Serbank, Russia largest lender from SWIFT int’l payment system 

- German industrial orders dropped 4.7% in March due to reduction in orders from abroad 

- German industrial production down 3.9% in March 

- UK private-sector growth in April slowed to weakest pace in 4 mths as inflation soars: PMI 

- UK annual house price growth up by 10.8% in April 

- UK to send US$1.6bn military aid to Ukraine 

- France manufacturing output fell by 0.3% over the mth, follow the sharp and downward revised fall in Feb 

- Greece to spend another €3.2bn to relieve pressure on household budgets and businesses from soaring energy prices 

- Slovakia says embargo of Russian oil will destroy European economy 

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+ Australia central bank lifted benchmark interest rate from 0.1% to 0.35%, first rate hike in 11 years 

- Australia’s wine exports slumped 26% YoY to A$2.05bn in 12 mths to March 31

- India’s services sector grew at its fastest pace in 5 mths in April, S&P Global India Services PMI rose to 57.9 vs 53.6 in March

- India planning to reopen >100 coal mines as heatwave worsens power crisis 

- India’s exports recording highest ever shipments in April, but high value of imports caused trade deficit to widen 

+ Saudi economy expected to grow by around 10% in 2022: capital economics 

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+ Indonesia’s S&P Global PMI rose to 51.9 in April vs 51.3 in March, marking 9th consecutive mth expansion 

- Thailand cuts GDP outlook to 3.5% form previous forecast of 4% 

+ Bangkok prepares to shift Covid-19 treatment from pandemic to endemic 

+ Cambodia officially started construction of US$1.5bn deep seaport 

+ Malaysia paving the way for palm oil to regain market share in EU: Minister 

+ Sg manufacturing sector expands for 22nd consecutive mth, PMI edged up 0.2%

- Sg median mortgage rates roughly doubled over last 6 mths, set to rise further: analysts  

+ Sg received 20 proposals involving import of low carbon electricity from solar, wind, hydro from 4 SEA nations

- Sg overall occupancy rate for industrial property market fell 0.4% from previous qtr in Q1: JTC

- Sg imposed new regulations on family offices of the wealthy, required increased investment in local labour and securities 

+ Nio, Chinese EV maker gets SGX conditional approval for secondary listing on mainboard 

+ Sg F&B sales up 4.7% in March, total value estimated at S$806m 

- Sg retail sales up 8.7% in March, and S$3.9bn sales value, 14.9% were online sales 

+ HDB resale prices up 1.1% MoM in April, overall price up by 11.9% on yearly basis 

- Sg High Court has convicted Soh Chee Wen and Quah Suh-Ling of cheating offences, masterminds in 2013 Penny Stock Crash  

+ Golden Mile Complex sold en bloc for S$700m, developers to restore building 

Contribution by Derek@valueinvestments chat group. Thank you.

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