Wolf Money(world market review 12-18 Dec 2022)
Market Summary 12-18 Dec 2022
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- Fed raised interest rates by 50bp to 4.25-4.5% to highest level in 15 years, projected rates rising to 5.1% in 2023
- Fed expects to raise interest rate to bring inflation to 2% over longer term
- US inflation at 7.1% over 12 mths to end Nov, slowest increase in 15 mths
- US retails sales fell 0.6% in Nov, biggest drop in 11 mths
+ US import prices fell for 5th straight mth in Nov due to declining costs for petroleum products and strong dollar
+ US mortgage rates drop for 5th straight week
- US composite PMI Outlook Index on manufacturing n services sectors fell to 44.6 in Dec vs 46.4 in Nov, lowest in 2.5 yrs
- US existing home sales will fall for 2nd year in 2023 to 11-year low in 2023: NAR
- US added 3 dozen Chinese high-tech firms to trade blacklist bars from accessing US tech and components
+ US gains full access to audits of Chinese frims in breakthrough, removes risk of 200 stocks being delist from US exchanges
+ US extends tariffs exclusions on 352 Chinese goods for 9 mths
- US Senate passes record-high US$858bn defence bill
+ Biden announced new investments, trade deals in Africa, highlighting sustainable energy and infrastructure
+ United Airlines will order 100 Boeing 787 Dreamliners with possibility extending to 100 more worth US$30bn
+ Delta anticipates strong top-line, EPS growth for 2023
- Goldman Sachs considering laying up to 4000 employees or 8% of its workforce early 2023
- Blackstone real estate trusts limited redemptions prompts SEC queries, investor scrutiny
- Elon Musk seeking new Twitter investors at same price he paid at US$54.20 per share
- Tesla shares at lowest level in 2 years
- FTX founder will allegedly accept extradition to US
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- China facing largest Covid surge of the pandemic, public health officials say possibly 800m ppl could be infected next few mths
+ China to rollout >1 trillion-yuan (US$144bn) support package for semiconductor industry
+ China asked big tech firms play full role in leading economic growth, creating jobs and engaging int’l competition; strongest signal >2 years intense scrutiny gg to be over soon
+ China’s central bank ramped up cash injections via medium-term loans, holds rates unchanged for 4th straight mth
+ China will step up policy adjustments and strengthen policy coordination to support growth in 2023
+ China’s central bank issued draft rules on supervising and managing financial infrastructure
- China’s US Treasury holdings fell to 12-year low in Oct, below US$1 trillion 6th straight mth, hit 12-year low
- China’s retail sales fell 5.9% YoY in Nov vs 0.5% YoY down in Oct
+ China industrial output rose 2.2% in Nov YoY, slowest growth since May
+ China-developed ARJ21 jetliner by COMAC delivered to first overseas client in Indonesia
+ China passed new rules mandating important industrial data be stored within the country
- China filed dispute with WTO over US restrictions on chip exports
+ China hinted further support for real estate sector, new measures being considered to improve financial condition
+ Longfor gets US$101m offshore loans from BoC, 1st developer to tap into measure to help cash-strapped property firms
+ China willing to expand cooperation with EU in economy, trade, green and digital development, finance and tech
+ China approved 10 major projects with total investment of about 15 trillion yuan (US$214.9bn) by end Nov
+ China >2700 projects financed by policy-based and development financial instruments had all started construction
+ China’s weekly new home sales in 16 cities rise on easing Covid curbs
- China’s Nov urban jobless rate surges to 5.7%, highest since May
+ Country Garden owner selling stake in a unit to raise about US$650bn as shares ramp up
- ByteDance reportedly moved key executives from China to US and Singapore, reduce ties to other units in China: WSJ
+ Huawei inked patent licensing deal with smartphone rival Oppo
+ HK drops Covid curbs for arrivals, scraps health app
+ Macau 6 casino businesses to invest US$15bn after granted 10-year operating licences, to pledge bulk to non-gaming projects
+ Taiwan-China sea travel may resume in time for Lunar New Year
- Taiwan to fine Foxconn over China chip investment on Tsinghua Unigroup stake
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+ Japan govt to revise accord with BOJ that states central bank will aim to achieve its 2% inflation target
- Japan’s trade deficit surged to >2 trillion yen in Nov as higher costs for oil and weak yen to push imports higher
- Japan’s manufacturing activity shrank at fastest pace in 26 mths in Dec on soft demand and persistent cost pressures
- Japan wholesale price index hit highest level again in Nov on energy, weak yen, surging 9.3% YoY
- Japan, Netherlands to join US chip sanctions on China
+ Sony, NEC Tech executives warned latest US chip export controls unlikely to supress China progress in AI and Super computers
- Russia’s economy shrank 3.7% YoY in Q3, improvement on previously reported 4%: revised data
+ Russia will fight sanction with shift in trade and energy flows, expand trade cooperation with new partners: Putin
- Gazprom’s gas output down 19.6% YTD
+ Coal use set to hit all-time high in 2022 amid energy crisis: IEA
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- ECB raised interest rates 0.5% to 2% for 4th time in a row, warns more increases to come
+ ECB would start reducing its €5 trillion worth of bond holdings from Mar to tighter policy battles decades high inflation
- Europe needed urgent response to US inflation Reduction Act, should amount to 2% of its output: Macron
- Europe got hit by roughly US$1 trillion from surging energy costs in fallout of Russia’s war in Ukraine
- Eurozone business activity falls at slower pace in 4 mths in Dec; composite PMI rose to 4-mth high of 48.8 in Dec
- EU adopts 9th round of anti-Russia sanctions, includes 168 entities to be targeted by sectoral measures
+ EU reached agreement for major reform to carbon market, to reduce emissions and invest in climate-friendly technologies
- EU clears nationalisation of Germany energy giant Uniper
- EU to provide €18bn in financing to Ukraine in 2023, agrees more sanctions on Russia
+ EU pledges US$10bn investment in SEA during ASEAN summit
- Germany inflation likely to be higher than earlier thought, economic growth weaker with recession forecasts: Bundesbaank
- German economic activity eased for 2nd mth in Dec, composite PMI rose to 48.9 in Dec from 46.3 in Nov
+ Volkswagen to build all-electric Tavascan car in China
- BoE raised interest rates by 0.5% to 3.5% in 9th increase in a year to 14-year high
- UK’s economy shrank 0.3% in 3 mths through Oct
- UK retail sales slid unexpectedly in Nov despite soccer World Cup and Black Friday sales promotions
- UK home asking prices are falling at sharpest pace in 4 years
- UK adopts new anti-dumping tariffs on Chinese aluminium extrusions
- Dutch crypto exchange has €280bn locked at US-based firm Digital Currency Gp (DCG), currently facing liquidity problems
- Switzerland joined latest EU sanctions against Russia
+ Greece repaid eurozone bailout loans of €2.7bn ahead of schedule for the first time
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- IMF: Housing markets in Asia-Pacific region slated for decline in many countries
+ Indian to remain biggest buyer of Russian oil
+ South Korea Hanwha inked US$1.5bn deal to buy Daewoo Shipbuilding
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+ Indonesia recorded surplus of US$5.16bn in int’l trade in Nov, extends trade surplus run to 31 consecutive mths
+ Indonesia foreign debt down 7.6% at US$390.2bn as of Oct
+ Indonesia to offer subsidies for locally made EV up to US$5000
+ Thailand economy to grow 3.6% in 2023, up from estimated 3.3% this year, driven largely by tourism revival: UTCC
+ Thailand 5bn-baht Silicon Tech Park set to start next yr in Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC) through public-private partnership
- Thailand to keep electricity bills for household unchanged but to increase power tariffs on businesses by 20%
+ Philippines moving closer to setting up sovereign wealth fund after House of Representatives’ approval
+ Philippines extends tariff cuts on imported rice, other food items to fight inflation
+ Malaysia’s 9-mth approved investment up 2.5% to RM194bn
+ Malaysia manufacturing sales up 12.9% to RM158.9bn in Oct
+ Malaysia PM instructed all govt departments to develop measures to implement targeted subsidies
- Sg NODX contracted by 14.6% YoY in Nov, decreased 4th consecutive mth
- Sg top 10 markets shrank overall in Nov; China down 31.2%, HK down 41%, Malaysia down 12.9%
+ Sg GCB volumes in 2023 expected to be similar to 2022 levels at around >40 amid price gap: Realstar
+ PSA Int’l considering selling 20% stake in CK Hutchison Holdings
+ Changi Airport’s weekly passenger traffic hits 75% of pre-pandemic level
Contribution by Derek@valueinvestments chat group. Thank you.
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