Wolf Money(world market report 30 Jan-5 Feb 2023)

 

Pacita Abad Philippine1946-2004

Fight for freedom circa 1980

Gift of Pacita Abad Art Estate

Collection of National Gallery Singapore 

Market Summary 30 Jan – 5 Feb 2023

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- Fed raises key interest rate by 25 bps to between 4.5% and 4.75% 

+ US added 517,000 jobs in Jan, unemployment rate fell to 3.4%, lowest since 1969

+ US job openings increased 572,000 to 5-mth high of 11m on last day of Dec 

- US layoffs hit 2-year high in Jan after tech firms cut jobs at 2nd-highest pace on record 

+ US factory orders in Dec rose 1.8% or US$10bn to US$552.5bn vs previous mth 

- US Manufacturing PMI stood at 46.9 in Jan, up by 0.7 pts vs previous mth: S&P Global  

+ Biden likely to propose budget plan on 9 Mar: ABC News

- Powell does not see central bank cutting key interest rates this year, discussing about a couple more rate hikes 

- US consumer confidence index at 107.1 pts vs 109 pts in Dec: Conference Board 

+ US jobless claims down 3000 to 183,000, lowest level since April 

- US job cuts up to 102,943 in Jan vs 43,651 in Dec  

+ US job market still very strong, growth to continue at fairly subdued pace in 2023: Powell 

+ US private payrolls up by 106,000 in Jan: ADP 

- McCarthy: No debt ceiling deal without spending cuts 

+ US announced first transfer of seized Russian assets to Kiev 

- US advances deal to acessible more military bases in Philippines 

- US construction spending stood at US$1,809.8bn in Dec, down by 0.4% vs Nov  

+ US home prices in all 9 census divisions up 7.7% in Nov on annual basis

+ ExxonMobil earned US$55.7bn in profits in 2022, historic high for Western oil industry  

- US targets Huawei with more restrictions, stopped approving licenses for US firms to export most items: Reuters 

- US Customs started issuing confiscation notices on aluminium products so-called Uyghur Forced Labour Prevention Act  

- US solar ambition could be disrupted by China’s new proposed rules to restrict exports of key solar manufacturing technology

- US readying new US$2bn Ukraine weapons package 

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+ China’s national banks extended US$3.15 trillion in new yuan-denominated loans in 2022, mainly corporate borrowing 

+ China’s service activity in Jan expanded for the 1st time in 5-mth, Caixin services PMI rose to 52.9 

+ China vows to stabilise exports as pillar of national economy, expand imports in 2023 

+ China may scrap limit on Municipal land sales to boost fiscal revenue: sources 

+ China will establish long-term mechanism to boost consumption so consumer will have stable income be able to spend without worries: Xi 

- China Caixin General Manufacturing PMI at 49.2 in Jan, remained in contractionary territory 

+ China’s securities regulator vowed all-out effort fully expand registration-based IPO system in 2023 

+ China’s economy expected to contribute to a qtr of global growth in 2023: IMF 

+ China independent refineries boosting purchases of discounted fuel oil blended from Russian barrels: Reuters 

+ China commodities hub Yiwu experienced overseas orders rush after CNY 

+ Shanghai witnessed record US$23.9bn in actual use of foreign investment in 2022 

- China’s Jan auto sales plunged 45%; due to end of govt subsidies in Dec and week-long CNY 

- China’s new-home prices in 100 cities continued to drop for 7th consecutive mth in Jan 

+ China outstanding real estate loans up 1.5% YoY to ¥53.16 trillion (US$7.88 trillion) in 2022 

+ Chinese CATL planning to raise at least US$5bn by listing global depositary receipts (GDR) in Switzerland 

+ China regulator given approval for Morgan Stanley to take controlling stake in its fund management firm 

- Chinese property market crisis not over, large stock of unfinished housing among the major problems to be addressed: IMF 

+ China renewable power installation to see robust growth in 2023: Fitch 

+ China state-back Zijin completed US$360m Suriname gold mine purchase 

+ China to reopen borders with HK, Macau after closed for nearly 3 years 

+ HK to offer half a million free air tickets to lure global visitors  

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- Japan’s Manufacturing PMI at 48.9 in Jan

+ Japan’s agricultural, fishery and forestry product rose 14.3% in 2022 to US$10.9bn 

- Japan to restrict chip manufacturing machine exports to China: Kyodo 

+ Japan’s average job availability in 2022 improved 1st time in 4 years 

+ Japan Airline and ANA posted net profits for the 9 mths to Dec, turning around losses 

- Russia nearly US$81bn in funds belonging to investors have been blocked by Western financial institutions

- Russia’s export US$8bn revenue hit by price caps in Jan: IEA 

+ Russian’s food exports jumped by 12% in monetary terms in 2022 to >70m tons 

- Russian banned sale of crude oil to parties that implement West’s price-ceiling mechanism 

+ Gazprom increased daily volume of gas transit through Ukraine to EU by 20% first time in weeks to 29.4mcm on Feb 1 

+ Mexico gearing up to build several manufacturing hubs for EVs across the country: minister 

+ Global central banks increased gold buying in 2022, soared by 18% YoY to 55-year high to 1136 tons worth US$70bn: WGC 

+ OPEC Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee confirms output will remain the same

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- Eurozone inflation at 8.5% in Jan vs 9.2% in Dec 

- ECB hikes key interest rates by 50 bps 

- EU economic activity to stay weak in near-term, to hike rates by another 50 bps in March: Lagarde 

+ Eurozone unemployment rate at 6.6% in Dec vs 6.5% in Nov 

- EU faces supply shortages after Russian oil ban: Bloomberg 

- EU seeking new sanctions against Russia by Feb 24 

- European gas falls >6% on strong supply prospects 

+ German trade surplus stood at €10bn in Dec vs €10.8bn in Nov 

+ Germany jobless rate unchanged at 5.5% in Jan 

- Germany retail sales down 6.4% in Dec YoY 

- Brexit costs UK roughly £100bn annually after its exit in 2020, currently 4% smaller it might have been: analysts 

- BoE hike key interest rate by 50 pbs

- UK half a million ppl went on strike, calling for higher wages, largest walkout in 12 years 

- UK inflation hit 10.5% annually in Dec, grocery price inflation hit record 16.7% in 4 weeks to 22 Jan

+ Shell posted record-breaking US$39.9bn annual profit in 2022, exceeded previous record of US$28bn in 2008 

- UK water bills to soar by 7.5% in April, biggest increase in nearly 20 years 

- France inflation jumped 7% in Jan YoY as govt phased out some measures to contain soaring energy and food prices 

- France unions staged 2nd mass strike against govt plans to raise retirement age for most workers 

- Sweden’s bankruptcies surged to highest level in >10 years in Jan, on construction firms, ongoing housing-market crunch  

- Switzerland addressed potential energy shortfall, ordered gas reserves to be set up for next winter 

- Norway’s sovereign wealth fund record loss of US$164.4bn in 2022 or -14.1% 

- Finland coal consumption surged 10% in 2022 YoY as EU reopened coal-fired plants after Russian supplies stopped 

+ Bulgaria and Serbia launched construction of 171km natural gas interconnector pipeline to diversify supplies 

+ Ukraine signed agreement with EU allow it to take part in single market programme 

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+ Australia’s PM looking to make an official visit to China later this year 

+ Australia, China top trade officials to meet virtually next week 

+ Australian mining giant BHP eyes broader partnerships in China: CEO  

+ India to raise capital spending by 33% of annual budget of US$550bn to spur economic growth and create jobs 

+ India refiners now using Emirati dirhams instead of USD to pay for most of Russian oil via traders based in UAE 

+ India and Russia should build oil tankers: India’s ambassador 

- India’s Adani’s losses swell above US$100bn, calls off US$2.5bn share sale 

- South Kore’s chip sales to China almost halve in Jan, impacted by US chip war against China 

- Samsung agreed to pay US$150m to UK Nanoco Technologies to settle patent lawsuits 

+ Samsung unveiled newest Galaxy S23 smartphones available Feb 17 

- Saudi energy minister warned Western sanctions against Russia could result shortage of energy supplies in future 

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+ ASEAN Business Advisory Council to work on integrating respective countries’ QR code payment systems

- Indonesia’s inflation dropped to 5.28% in Jan YoY from 5.51% in Dec 

+ Indonesia drafting new incentive for EVs and supporting industries including charging stations 

+ Thailand set rice export target 2023 of 7.5m tonnes, lower than 7.69m tonnes exported in 2022

+ Malaysia will work to gradually lower nation’s debt and narrow budget gap, without restoring to raising taxes: PM

+ Malaysia’s PPI rose 3.5% in Dec vs 3.2% expansion in Nov 

+ Malaysia can become automotive hub for Asean market: Minister 

+ Malaysia proposed a single clearance system to ease traffic along Johor-Singapore Causeway 

- Sg overall factory activity PMI at 49.8 in Jan, remains in contraction for 5th straight mth 

+ Sg retail sales up 7.4% in Dec, extending Nov’s growth 

- Sg growth to slow to 1.5% in 2023 as global headwinds offset China boost: IMF 

+ Sg corporate income tax receipts in first 9 mths already exceeded full-year estimate  

- Sg bankruptcy applications hit 17-year high in 2022, 3648 cases made by individuals or by their creditors

+ Changi Airport traffic strongest in Dec at 4.6m, reaching 72% of pre-Covid level 

+ Sg YTL PowerSEraya to buy electricity on a commercial basis from Malaysia for the first time 

- Sg more properties are likely to go under hammer in 2023 by up to 40 to 50% 

+ SG-EU signed digital partnership to strengthen connectivity and interoperability 

- Temasek-backed fish farmer Apollo Aquaculture in judicial management 

Contribution by Derek@valueinvestments chat group. Thank you.

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