Wolf Money(world market review 6-12 Feb 2023)

 

Thomas Yeo Singapore 1936

Deserted Island circa 1968

Gift of the Mandarin Art Galleries Pte Ltd

Collection of National Gallery Singapore 

Market Summary 6-12 Feb 2023

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- US posted US$460bn deficit in first 4-mth of fiscal year 2023, 9% increase from YoY, adding US$29bn in Jan 

- Powell: jobs report was stronger than expected but show why this will be a long process 

+ US consumer sentiment climbed to 13-mth high of 66.4 in early Feb  

- Biden plans to bar some US investments in some Chinese technology companies and increase scrutiny: sources 

- Texas, Florida, Arkansas and several other states considering a ban on Chinese citizens buying property 

- US exports US$1.7bn and imports US$14.46bn from Russia in 2022 vs US$6.4bn and US$29.6bn in 2021  

- US to slap steep tariff on Russia aluminium, would effectively ban US purchases of metal from Russia

- Yellen steps up pressure for World Bank overhaul as it lags on climate finance 

- FAA 5G retrofitting plan could cost industry US$637m vs govt estimate US$26m: IATA 

- US airlines strongly urged FAA to extend proposed deadline to Jun 2024 for 5G upgrade

- Boeing plans to cut about 2000 finance and HR jobs in 2023  

- Warren Buffett reduced his BYD HK shares, sold 4.235m for US$139m 

- US blacklists 6 Chinese entities over alleged “spy” balloon 

+ Rothschild family planning to take its investment bank Rothchild & Co. private 

+ Bill Gates says ChatGPT will change the world, make jobs more efficient 

- Chevron agreed to sell Myanmar assets to Canadian firm MTI and will exit the country  

- Alphabet shares lost >US$100bn or 8% after its Bard chatbot ad showed inaccurate information 

- Meta delays setting team budgets as it plans fresh round of layoffs: FT 

- Binance temporarily halt US dollar transfers without providing any reason

- Disney lays off 7000 staff as streaming subscribers decline 

+ Ford Motor plans to build battery plan in Michigan with Chinese partner CATL 

+ GM singed deal with GlobalFoundries for exclusive US semiconductor production 

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+ China’s Jan new yuan loan likely surged to record high on policy support: Reuters poll 

+ China’s 2023 growth forecast revised up to 5% from 4.1% earlier: Fitch 

+ China unveiled plan to steer its economy toward high-quality development , towards new strengths centre around technologies, standards, brands, and services 

+ China speeds up approving overseas mutual funds wholly owned by overseas capital to further open US$3.9 trillion market   

+ PBOC raised its gold holdings by 30 tons in Dec, an increase in its gold reserves for 2nd straight mth 

+ China’s forex reserves rose for 4th mth in Jan, hitting US$3.18 trillion 

+ China several provincial capitals and other major cities temporarily cut rates for first-time homebuyers 

+ China tightens requirements on classifying banks’ asset risks in a timely and prudent manner 

+ China’s equities started 2023 with foreign investors snapped up record US$21bn, more than doubled previous record in 2021 

- China’s luxury market contracted 10% in 2022, ending 5-year streak of growth 

+ China to set up blockchain research centre in Beijing 

+ China state-owned real estate firms restarted overseas bond issuances in Jan after 5 mths of suspension 

+ China dealt with 187 cases of business monopoly in 2022, imposed total fines of ¥784m, to ensure fairer market competition  

+ China’s reopening to lift aviation, tourism sectors, boost global recovery: IATA 

+ China overtaken EU to become largest buyer of Russia’s agricultural products, up by 44% in 2022 

+ China biggest maker engineering machinery - Sany Heavy Industry in preparation for Frankfurt listing 

+ Huawei CFO Meng to take turn as rotating chairwoman 

- SMIC’s profits declined 26% YoY in Q4 to US$425.5m 

+ Alibaba Gp sold its remaining stake in Indian digital payments firm Paytm for about US$167.14m through a block deal 

+ Alibaba tests ChatGPT rival to build China’s top AI chatbot

+ Baidu plans to launch ChatGPT-style bot, named ERNIE Bot, to open for public use in March 

+ HK signed 13 MOU for cooperation with various bodies in Saudi Arabia and UAE with chief executive 8 days visit 

+ HK chief executive expected to visit Greater Bay Area soon as many SMEs in Middle East had expressed interest: source

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+ Japan’s current account surplus halved to ¥11.44 trillion to 8-year low in 2022

+ Japan set to appoint academic Kazuo Ueda as next BoJ governor: sources 

- Japan’s wholesale prices rose 9.5% in Jan YoY as firms continued pass on higher energy and raw material costs  

- Japan joined price cap on Russia oil products 

- Softbank’s Vision Funds posted US$5.5bn loss 

+ Tokyo based-fund consortium made final ¥2 trillion bid to buy over Toshiba  

+ Toyota posted Q3 revenue of ¥9.8 trillion, up by 23% YoY

+ Russia’s forex reserves are approaching US$600bn: central bank 

- Russia plans to cut oil production by 500,000 bpd from March in response to Western sanctions 

- Russia to reduce euro from National Wealth Fund to zero in 2023, national reserve will only hold gold, Chinese yuan n ruble  

+ Russia has weathered Western sanctions by boosting investment in domestic production, new supply routes: Bloomberg 

+ Russia’s LNG production up by 8.1% in 2022 to record 32.5m tons

+ Moscow and Beijing singed agreement on additional natural gas supplies from Russian via Far East route 

+ Russian MTS Bank granted banking license to operate in UAE

+ Russia’s no.2 bourse to include 35 more Chinese shares for trading, bring total to Chinese firms on the exchange to 115 

+ Brazilian, China central banks singed MOU on setting up yuan clearing arrangements in Brazil 

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+ EU posed to push back against US huge subsidies for green technologies as German and France ministers reportedly started talks with US officials 

+ ECB cuts maximum rate it pays on deposits held by govt, to encourage it to redeploy cash into financial system starting May 1

- German inflation rose 8.7% in Jan YoY vs 8.6% in Dec 

- Germany real earnings down by average 4.1% in 2022 YoY

- Adidas expects €700m in operating loss in 2023 if it must write off all existing Yeezy inventory, would be 1st loss in 3 decades 

+ Siemens Q1 revenue surged 10% to €18.1bn

+ Volkswagen will speed up its shift to EVs and revamp its software strategy in 5-year investment plan 

- UK economy showed no growth in Q4, narrowly avoiding recession end 2022 

- UK households facing permanent decline in living standards; wages lag behind double-digit inflation, families struggle pay bills 

- UK’s top Rolex retailer – Watches of Switzerland Gp shares plunged most in 2 years as sales of luxury timepieces and jewellery in US missed analyst forecasts 

- France trade deficit almost doubled in 2022 and reached a new record to €164bn from €86bn YoY  

+ Swiss bourse raised total of US$3.2bn from 9 Chinese firms since end July 2022, exceeded total amount raised in US 

- Credit Suisse reports massive annual loss of 7.3bn Swiss francs, biggest annual loss since GFC 

- Turkey-Syria earthquake deaths topped 33,000   

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+ Australian coking coal arrived in China after 2-year lapsed   

+ Australia trade minister and China commerce minister held a video meeting, first in 3 years 

+ India and Russia poised bypass dollar in energy deal, to settle payments in national currencies: Novatek 

+ Air India seals record order, to purchase 250 Airbus planes, 220 Boeing aircraft worth >US$100bn at list prices 

- India started to ban and block 232 betting and loan lending apps and websites, many with China links  

- Adani crisis deepens with Moody’s downgrades and index weighting cuts by MSCI after free float review 

+ India looks to raise another 80bn rupees from 2nd tranches of green bonds 

- India regulator investigating relationship between Adani and at least 2 anchor investor firms based in Mauritius 

+ South Korea to invest US$1.1bn in surveillance satellites 

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+ Indonesia’s economic growth rises to 9-year high in 2022 of 5.31%, owing to soaring commodity prices 

+ Jakarta-Bandung HSR completed installation of 8 main transformers, entering sprint stage 

- Thailand consumer confidence rose for 8th straight mth in Jan to 26-mth high of 51.7  

- Thailand exports expected to contract 3-5% in Q1 before recover in Q2 and Q3 thanks to China’s reopening 

+ Cambodia PM to visit China in hopefully result in cooperation in certain infrastructure projects 

+ Malaysia has no plan to abolish petrol and diesel subsidies in the near future: Minister 

+ Malaysia govt will allocate more funds to support local agriculture in new Budget 2023 

+ Malaysia’s economy grew 7% in Q4 and 8.7% in 2022, highest level since 2000: Bank Negara 

+ Malaysia’s average jobless rate to touch 3.5% in 2023: MIDF 

- Malaysia will coordinate with Indonesia, weighing range of trade curbs to fight back against EU’s anti-palm oil policies 

+ Malaysia Subang Airport to be redeveloped into regional aviation hub with maximum capacity of 8m annual passengers

+ Sg secured total S$22.5bn in fixed asset investments in 2022: EDB

+ Sg median household income edges up 0.2% in real terms in 2022

-Sg further relax Covid-19 measures, to drop test requirement for unvaccinated travellers, further eases mask rules  

- HDB resale prices accelerate in Jan on average of 1.4% as million-dollar transactions surge by 42%: SRX 

Contribution by Derek@valueinvestments chat group. Thank you.

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