Wolf Money(world market review 3-9 July 2023)

 

Liu Kuo Sung Taiwan 1932 

Red Sun circa 2015 

Collection of Liu Kuo Sung Foundation@National Gallery Singapore 

Market Summary 3-9 Jul 2023

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- US spread between 2 n 10-year treasuries at deepest inversion since 1981; 2-year treasury hits 16-year high after ADP job data

- US inflation declining slower than expected: Fed 

+ US non-manufacturing PMI increased to 53.9 in Jun from 50.3 in May 

+ US layoffs nearly halved in Jun MoM as job cuts in tech sector fell 

- US factory orders rose 0.3% after advancing same margin in Apr, below expectations 

+ US nearly all officials at Fed’s Jun meeting believed appropriate to pause rate hikes

- Fed sees more rate hikes ahead, but at slower pace; a mild recession as likely to start later this year 

+ US private sector adds 497,000 jobs in Jun, more than double expectations: ADP

+ US unemployment rate drops to 3.6%, added 209,000 jobs in Jun, less than expected  

- US mortgage rates climb to 6.81%, highest level this year 

+ Yellen began a 4-day visit to China, expected to focus on easing ties 

+ Yellen: separation of world’s 2 largest economies would be virtually impossible; urge cooperation on economy, climate 

- US plans to restrict China’s access to cloud computing 

- SEC allegedly sees spot Bitcoin ETF as inadequate 

+ Tesla repots record 466,140 deliveries worldwide in Q2; remains by far top EV maker in US  

+ Tesla set to realise fully autonomous vehicles later this year: Musk 

- Musk threatened to sue Meta after its launched Threads, an app to compete direct with Twitter 

+ Ford’s US sales surged 9.9% on big gains for its F-Series trucks 

+ Moderna set to sign US$1bn investment deal with Shanghai to tackle China market 

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- China imposed restrictions on exporting 2 metals that are crucial to parts of the semiconductors, telecoms and EV industries  

- China’s export controls on key components for computer chip manufacturing are “just the beginning”: trade policy adviser 

+ China’s Caixin services PMI at 53.9 in Jun from 57.1 in May 

+ China to strive for new in breakthroughs in critical mineral exploration and expand production capacity: Minister  

- China stock delisting set to beat record as new rules introduced to improve the quality of listed firms 

+ China unveiled regulations for its US$2.9 trillion private investment fund sector; better protect investors, promote innovation 

- China Jun home sales plunged 28.1% YoY among the 100 largest developers 

+ China’s summer travel forecast to surpass pre-Covid levels 

+ China mulls scrapping strict controls that keep household gas rates low, allowing them to float within controlled range    

- China imposed de facto ban on Japanese seafood amid anger over plan to dump nuclear water

- China’s number of kindergartens fell for the first time since 2008, enrolments in kindergartens and preschools also dropped  

+ Chinese firms successively kicked off infrastructure project in Brazil in recent mths, 

+ Huawei launched new AI model Pangu 3.0 in ChatGPT 

+ Chinese NEV firms expanding to SEA market at an unprecedented speed, supported with preferential policies under RCEP 

+ BYD posted best-ever qtr, sold 700,244 fully electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles 

- Chinese regulators announce a fine of ¥7.12bn (US$993.54m) on Ang Gp as regulatory ratification ends 

+ China’s WeRide cleared for nationwide road test in UAE

- Taiwan’s exports plunged 23.4% to US$32.3bn YoY at fastest pace in 14 years on weak demand  

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- Japan to release about 500 Olympic pools’ worth of threated radioactive water from Fukushima into the sea 

- Japan’s real wages down 1.2% in May 

+ Russia proposed a new securities depository exchange in Persian Gulf, an alternative to EU clearing houses: VT Bank 

- Ruble down >3% against euro, falling below landmark rate of 100 

- Russia’s oil and gas revenue slumped to US$5.8bn in Jun, down by 26.4% YoY 

+ Russian grain exports hit historic high, shipments reached 60m tons in 2022-2023 season 

- Gazprom has taken legal action against several major German banks over unfulfilled contract amount to US$340m 

+ OPEC invites Azerbaijan to formally join the bloc as permanent member 

+ World top 500 billionaires added US$852bn to their fortunes in H1 

- Planet saw it’s hottest day on record this week, a record that will be broken again n again

- Global rice prices now at their highest in 11 years 

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- Eurozone retail sales unchanged in May MoM; 2.7% decline YoY 

- EU and China energy firms are racing to secure shipments of LNG from US amid potential supply shortage: FT 

- Euro area producer prices fall by 1.9% in May 

+ ECB backed proposed new EU rules for closing down smaller banks when they fail 

- EU investigates Amazon’s US$1.7bn acquisition of Roomba iRobot 

+ Airbus stepping up testing radical new wing designs in technology 

+ German industrial orders rose more than expected in May due to large order of ships, spacecraft and military vehicles 

+ Scholz expects more chip projects in Germany  

+ Volkswagen to invest €1bn in South American operations 

+ Audi to unveil EC manufacturing plans in Mexico 

- Bank of England considers clampdown on foreign bank branches: FT 

- UK mortgage rates spike to highest level not seen since unfunded tax cuts by Truss  

- UK house prices suffer steepest decline in 12 years, average price of home sold in Jun fell by 2.6% YoY

+ France refused to approve to open NATO liaison office in Japan, citing should not extend beyond North Atlantic: Politico 

- Netherlands govt collapsed after failing to reach an agreement on limiting influx of asylum seekers 

+ Austrian bank Raiffeisen is delaying withdrawal, quoted defending long-standing ties with Moscow 

- Turkey’s inflation at 38.2% in June vs 39.6% in May 

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+ India Adani considering raising US$1.5bn to fund his renewable energy unit

- South Korean firms have seen significant drop in revenues in Chinese market since 2016, combined revenues down by 13%  

- Samsung reported 96% plunge in quarterly operating profit, sales fell most in over a decade as chips slump persists 

+ Saudi’s fresh oil cuts prove ties with Russia strong: Energy Minister 

+ Saudi extends oil cut of 1m bpd effect for Jul will continue in Aug and can be extended

+ Egypt starts US$1.8bn worth gas drilling project 

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+ Indonesia, Australia set to team up on EVs, batteries 

+ Thailand’s 50 richest on Forbes list rises to US$174bn, combined wealth of all tycoons rising nearly 15% 

+ Malaysia will hold elections in 6 states on Aug 12 

+ Anwar said he will meet Elon Musk to discuss investments: Reuters 

+ Malaysia retains 2023 GDP growth projection at 4-5%: Bank Negara 

+ Malaysia palm oil reserves seen rising to 4-mth high 

+ Sg retail sales up 1.8% YoY in May vs 3.7% growth in Apr 

- MAS posts record annual loss of S$30.8bn amid rise in SGD and higher interest expenses  

+ MAS will change tax incentives it gives to single family offices to boost hiring of locals and investment in its equity markets 

+ MAS allocated 2% of its portfolio or S$8bn to its climate transition programme: Ravi Menon 

- Sg mandatory climate disclosures proposed for large and non-listcos starting FY2027, listcos from FY2025

+ HDB resale volume down 17.8%, prices up 0.6% in Jun: SRX, 99.co

Contribution by Derek@valueinvestments chat group. Thank you

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