Wolf Money(world market review 11-17 Dec 2023)
Market Summary 11-17 Dec 2023
USA USA USA USA USA
+ Fed lowers inflation forecast for 2024, seeing core PCE falling to 2.4%, 2.2% by 2025, reach target of 2% in 2026
+ US inflation slowed to 3.1% annual rate in Nov
+ US retail sales rose 0.3% in Nov vs expectations for a decline of 0.1%
- S&P Global Flash US Manufacturing PMI fell to 48.2 in Dec, lowest in 4 mths, vs 49.4 in Nov
+ S&P Global US Composite PMI rose to 51 in Dec, marking private sector’s 3rd straight mth of growth, fastest pace in 5 mths
+ S&P Global US Services PMI rose to 51.3 in Dec from 50.8 in previous mth
+ US manufacturing output rose 0.3% in Nov, lifted by rebound in motor vehicles, business activity picks up in Dec
+ US wholesale prices unchanged in Nov, providing a leading indicator that inflation is easing: Labor Dept
+ US 10-year Treasury yield fell 35bps toward 3.9% to 5 mths low
+ Yellen plans to accelerate climate, financial market cooperation with China
- US commercial real estate a top threat to financial system in 2024: Feds
- Manhattan median rent fell 2% in Nov first time in 27 mths
- US homelseeness soared 12% to >650,000 ppl during single-night count start of this year
+ Nasdaq 100 hit a new all-time high after Fed signalled rate-hikes to contain inflation are over and cuts are on the table for 2024
- SEC denied petition by Coinbase Global seeking new rules from agency for digital asset sector
- US house approved Russian uranium ban
- US jury found Google guilty of uncompetitive practices around its Google Play store for Android apps as trial against Epic Games
+ Intel unveiled new AI chip to compete with Nvidia and AMD
+ SpaceX valuation hit US$180bn based on ongoing secondary share sale from previous high of US$150bn
+ OpenAI CEO doubled down his vision for cryptocurrency project Worldcoin
+ Starbucks proposed restarting union talks and reaching contract agreements in 2023
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+ China’s top policymakers emphasized economic growth, signalled stronger fiscal support at key meeting
+ China’s economic work in 2024 put scientific and technological innovation at 1st place among the priorities in 9 aspects
- China to run budget gap of 3% of GDP in 2024, issue special debt
- China’s GDP 2024 to fall to 4.5% from 5.2% this year: World Bank
+ China vowed to implement policies to support developers having short-term cash flow issues
+ China’s fiscal revenue rose 4.3% in Nov YoY vs 2.6% gain in Oct, up 7.9% in first 11 mths
- China new-home prices in 70 major cities fell 0.4% in Nov MoM
+ Beijing, Shanghai govts lowering downpayments and cutting mortgage interest rates to boost home sales
+ Wanda reached deal with investors to avoid US$5.6bn immediate repayment
- China 16 provinces and regions stage tap US$29bn special bonds to fund smaller banks
+ China outlining roadmap for data industry development, eyes 20% annual growth by 2026
+ China’s generative AI market expected to exceed US$1.4 trillion in 2023: CMG
+ Chian’s video games market returned to growth this year, domestic revenue rose 13% to ¥303bn
+ PetroChina Southwest oil and gas annual natural production exceeded 40bn cubic meters for the first time
+ China discovered large gold mine with potential reserves of 38 tons worth >US$23bn in Inner Mongolia
+ China plans 3m tons of backup coal production capacity by 2030
+ TikTok to invest US$1.5bn become controlling shareholder of GoTo Gojek Tokopedia, back into online shopping in Indonesia
+ China overtakes US as largest branded coffee shop market in the world by outlets
- China more agencies, state-backed firms asked staff not to bring Apple iPhones and other foreign devices to work: Bloomberg
- China’s self-developed games sales revenue in overseas markets dropped 5.7% to US$16bn this year vs 3.7% decline in 2022
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- Japan’s factory activity shrank for 7th straight mth to 47.7 in Dec from 48.3 in Nov, fastest deterioration in 10 mths
+ Japan should make preparations to issue digital yen without delay and treat it as legal tender coexist with cash: govt panel
- Russian central bank increases interest rate to 16%, gold reserves hit new record, reaching US$151.9bn in Nov
+ Russian trade via Northern Sea Route set to reach all-time high in 2023, expected to surge past 36m tons
+ Brazil has seen its oil output jumped 400,000 bpd to 3.6m this year: Kpler data
- Argentina President devalued its currency peso by 50%, tells nation to brae for painful economic shock
- Argentina still plans to dollarize, Milei’s economy chief says
- Panama Canal drought are disrupting global trade, forcing shippers to sail longer routes, pay higher freight costs
- OPEC+ oil market share falls to 51% this year: IEA
- Coal in demand mor than ever: IEA
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+ ECB held interest rates steady for 2nd meeting in a row, revised growth forecasts lower, plans to shrink balance sheet
- Eurozone registered 2 consecutive quarters of contraction, will slip into its first recession since pandemic
- EU reportedly working on legislation allowing member states to independently ban Russian fuel
- Eurozone bond yields sink to 9-mth low
- EU agreed on 12th package of sanctions against Russia
- Germany’s Flash Composite PMI fell for 6th consecutive mth to 46.7 in Dec vs Nov 47.8
+ Germany 10 year govt bond yield decreased to 38-week low of 2.019
- BoE said headline inflation expected to remain around 4.5% through end of year, well above 2% inflation target
- UK household energy debt highest ever, total volume has hit almost £3bn: regulator
+ Standard Chartered China unit gets securities business license, expects to open early next year
- France business activity declined faster than expected in Dec at 44.3 pts at 37 mths low, below 50 level for 7th mths
+ Turkish Airlines orders 220 Airbus aircraft with option for >100 more, entire order cold add up to 355 aircraft
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+ Australia’s govt confident of end to China wine tariffs early 2024
+ Samsung and ASML to build an advanced chip plant in South Korea
+ Saudi first stock mutual fund tracks FTSE Saudi Arabia Index to be listed in HKEX submitted to Chinese regulators for approval
- Saudi energy minister: Climate deal won’t have immediate impact on Gulf oil
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+ Indonesia’s trade surplus narrowed in Nov to US$2.41bn, imports dowb more then expected, exports extended weakening
- Indonesia to see lowest invest in renewable energy projects in last 6 years amid transition push
+ Thai inflation rate reached 33 mths low in Nov
- Thailand’s tourism revised estimates, anticipating a decline of 1.5m China visiotrs this year
+ Vietnam China agree to upgrade broad cooperation, expand existing rail links
- Myanmar is now world’s top opium producer, surpassing Afghanistan
+ Malaysia economy is projected to pick up slightly to 4.3% in 2024: IMF
+ Malaysia and Japan PM announced comprehensive strategic partnership, to further enhance cooperation in 5 areas
+ Malaysia to charge 10% sales tax on low value goods from Jan 1, sold at price <RM500, brought in by land, sea or air
- Sg inflation forecast revised down to 4.9% from 5.1% for 2023: ADP
- Sg retrenchments rise to 4110 in Q3, majority due to increase to wholesale trade sector
+ MAS survey: economists and analysts cut 2024 growth to 2.3% from previous estimate of 2.5%
+ Sg new private home sales more than treble in Nov to highest in 4 mths due to more project launches
+ Sg Shenzhen launched 14 smart city projects
- Sg Int’l visitor arrivals marked 4th straight mth of declines to 1.1m in Nov, 2.3% lower than in Oct
+ Sg grade A office rents grew by 1.7% YoY in 2023: CBRE
+ Sg ranks 11th spot in Euromonitor Int’l top 100 city destination for 2023
- Sg Covid cases top 56,000 in first week of Dec
Contribution by Derek@valueinvestments chat group. Thank you.
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