Wolf Money(world market review 15-21 Jan 2024)

Semsar Siahaan Indonesia 1952-2005

Homage to Christo’s Mother circa 1996

Collection of the Singapore Art Museum 

Market Summary 15-21 Jan 2024

*USA* 

+ US year-ahead inflation expectations complied by University of Michigan fell to 2.9% in Jan vs 3.1% previous mth, lowest in 3 yrs  

- Fed need more inflation data in hand before any rate cut: Chicago Fed President  

+ US retail sales rose 0.6% MoM in Dec, topping expectations for holiday shopping 

+ US consumer sentiment soared to 78.8 in Jan, highest since July 2021: University of Michigan

+ US unemployment benefits fell by 16,000 to 187,000 to 16-mth low 

+ US manufacturing output edged up 0.1% in Dec 

- US business inventories fell for 2nd straight mth in Nov amid declines in retail and wholesale stocks 

+ US congress approved short-term funding bill to avoid govt shutdown

+ US average rate on 30-year fixed mortgage fell to 8-mth low

- US existing-home sales dropped by 1% MoM to seasonally adjusted annualised rate of 3.78m units in Dec, hit 13-year low 

- US housing starts declined 4.3% MoM to annualised 1.46m in Dec 23, above market forecast, first decline in 4 mths 

+ US building permits rose 1.9% to seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.495m in Dec 23 

- US several banks reported plunge in Q4 profits, hurt by higher deposit costs, one-time charges 

- Biden cancelled US$5bn in additional student debt in latest relief step 

- US imported >US$1bn worth of Russian uranium from Jan-Nov 2023: RIA Novosti 

+ Trump secured a record margin of victory in Lowa’s Republican caucus 

+ OpenAI CEO Sam Altman seeks to raise billions for network of AI chip factories 

- Google CEO warned of more layoffs as the company turned to AI, other priorities 

+ Google rolled out AI-powered feature in US allow users to search with an image and text simultaneously using mobile 

+ Microsoft outpaced Apple as world’s most valuable company as investor hopes of AI-fuelled growth 

+ Apple overtakes Samsung as top seller of smartphones 

+ Emmerson family listed as American’s largest landowner, owns about total 1m hectares of land 

*GLOBE*

- Baltic Exchange’s main sea freight index surged 108% to 1503 on Fri, biggest gain in nearly 2 mths 

+ Global EV sales continued to slow, rose by 31% in 2023 vs 60% growth in 2022: Rho Motion  

*CHINA*

+ China’s GDP grew 5.2% YoY to new high of ¥126.06 trillion (US$17.7 trillion) in 2023

- China’s population dropped for 2nd consecutive year in 2023 with record low birth rate, down by 2.08m or 0.15% 

+ China’s industrial output grew 6.8% in Dec YoY vs 6.6% pace in Nov

+ China’s retail sales up 7.2% YoY to ¥47.15 trillion (US$6.63 trillion) in 2023

+ China’s per capita disposable income was ¥39,218 (US$5,511) in 2023, up 6.3% YoY in nominal terms

+ China’s unemployment rate on average at 5.2% in 2023, down 0.4% from 2022 

+ China vowed to roll out further pragmatic measures to boost the development of private sector 

+ Chian to develop new consumption growth pts such as smart homes, sports events, domestic products and “China-chic” goods 

+ China Finance Ministry, US Treasury officials started 2-day meeting in Beijing to discuss financial stability, capital markets issues 

+ China granted 6 foreign banks licences allowing them to act as lead underwriters for debt issues 

- China new foreign direct investment into the country drops to lowest in 3 years 

- ICBC to pay US$32.4m to US regulators over AML lapses 

- China’s largest brokerage restricts short sales for some clients in mainland markets after stock rout 

+ China unveiled 47 new institutional innovations from pilot FTZs 

- Chinese banks tightening controls on servicing Russian clients after US approved secondary sanctions on financial institutions 

+ China oil imports surged 11% YoY to 11.28m bpd in 2023, hitting all -time high 

+ China expected to see 9bn passenger trips during Spring Festival travel rush 

+ China’s courier industry expected to reach 142.5bn parcels and ¥1.3 trillion in 2024, up by 8% YoY 

+ China number of valid invention patents exceeded 4.99m end 2023: NIPA 

+ HK luxury property market showing signs of pickup in activity as more Chinese buyers returning 

+ Taiwan and China trade volume reached US$267.8bn in 2023, remaining at high level 

+ TSMC posted better-than-expected profit and revenue in Q4, revenue down 1.5%, net income dropped 19.3% YoY 

*EUROPE*

- EU car registrations fell 3.3% to 867,100 units in Dec 23, fist decline in 17 mths 

- EU agreed tougher anti-money laundering rules for cryptoassets and dealers in luxury cars and yachts

- EU to propose a law requiring EU countries to screen foreign investments to determine if they pose a security risk 

- Euro Area construction output declined 2.2% YoY in Nov23, sharpest decline in nearly 3 years 

- German economy shrank 0.3% YoY in 202, hit by high inflation, soaring energy prices, weak foreign demand 

- German economy has lost its competitive advantage after abandoning Russian gas supplies: Vice-Chancellor n Economy Minister

+ Lufthansa pulling flight capacity from other countries to meet booming travel demand in India 

- Shell suspended Red Sea shipments over fears of new Houthi accacks

- French data watchdog imposed €10m on Yahoo over cookie policy 

+ Israel selected 4 Chinese EV models for gov’t vehicle fleet 

*AISA*

+ Japan received 25m tourists in 2023, at 79% of pre-Covid level 

+ Tokyo Exchange to require English disclosures by Prime market firms 

+ India could ease its China investment curbs if border stay calm: senior Indian official 

+ Samsung latest premium Galaxy S24 smartphones will have multiple AI functions  

- QatarEnergy has stopped sending tankers via the Red Sea amid growing uncertainty 

- Egypt’s Suez Canal revenues saw 40% YoY decline in first 11 days of 2024  

*ASEAN*

+ Indonesia exploring cooperation with China on developing autonomous rail service in new capital Nusantara  

+ Thailand approved 2nd phase of EV subsidies for 2024 to 2027

+ Malaysia’s trade exceeded RM2 trillion for 3rd consecutive year at 2.64 trillion in 2023, down 7.3%, trade surplus RM214.1bn 

- Malaysian economy expected to expand 3.8% in 2023, below central bank’s earlier projection of 4% 

- Sg key exports down 1.5% in Dec, reversal of previous mth’s 1% growth 

- Sg Marina South designated for residential and commercial development fetched just one bid at S$770.5m or S$984 psf

+ Sg Food Agency launched tender for 2 sea-based fish farm plots, to be used for fish farming 

- Sg ex-transport minister faces 27 charges including corruption 

+ Marina Bay Sands to invest US$750m in Phase 2 of reinvestment programme, on top of US$1bn committed in Phase 1 

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