Wolf Money(world market report 19-25 Feb 2024）
Collection of San Augustine Museum, Manila
Manila Galleon Exhibition@Asian Civilisation Museum
Market Summary 19-25 Feb 2024
*USA*
-Fed bulk of policymakers were concerned abt risks of cutting interest rates too soon in Jan meeting: minutes show
+ Fed’s Vice Chair Jefferson said will be looking across a broad set of economic indicators to convince him time to cut rates
+ US S&P Global Flash Manufacturing PMI rose 51.5 in Feb from 50.7 in Jan, strongest growth in factory sector since sept 2022
-US S&P Global Services PMI eased to 51.3 in Feb from 52.5 in Jan, vs market expectations of 52
-US S&P Global Composite PMI at 51.4 in Feb from 52 in Jan mth
-US Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index no longer signals recession for the 1st time since summer of 2022
+ US jobless benefits down by 12,000 to 201,000, below market expectations of 218,000, fall to 5-week low
-US private businesses hired 107k workers in Jan vs downwardly revised 158k in Dec and forecasts of 145k
+ US existing-home sales rose 3.1% MoM to seasonally adjusted annualised rate of 4m units in Jan, highest level in 5 mths
-Goldman Sachs no longer expect US interest rate cut in May and see four 25bps cuts this year
-US average rate on 30-year fixed mortgage at 6.9% as of Feb 22 at 2-mth high, rising 13 pbs from prior wk
+ US 10-year treasury yield note around 4.3%, near its highest since Nov
-Biden administration to cancel another US$1.2bn of student loans
-US credit card interest costs consumers extra US$25bn each year at an all-time high: CFPB
+ US, Japan and other Indo-Pacific economies deal on supply chain resilience takes effect
-Biden plans to spend billions replacing China-made cranes at US ports
+ US hopes to continue its longstanding peaceful cooperation with Russia in space: NASA head
-US announced >500 new sanctions against Russia over invasion of Ukraine and death of opposition leader Navalny
+ Berkshire cash hit record US$168bn, operation earnings after taxes rose 28% to US$8.5bn in Q4
+ Nvidia has passed US$2 trillion in market cap, took only 8 mths from US$1 trillion to US$2 trillion
-Global debt hits new record high at US$313 trillion in 2023, developing economies scaling a fresh peak for the ration of debt: IIF
*CHINA*
+ China’s central bank cut benchmark 5-year loan prime rate by 25bps to 3.95%, largest cut on record
+ Xi held meeting of key economic policy body, to provide support to manufacturers and lowering logistic costs: state media
+ Chinese banks approved US$17.2bn of ‘whitelist’ loans for property sector, to inject liquidity into the sector
-China’s home prices in 70 major cities declined 0.3% in Jan MoM, narrowing 0.1% pt from Dec
-China’s new home prices declined by 0.7% YoY in Jan, drop the most in 10 mths
-China FDI fell by 11.7% YoY to ¥112.71bn (US$15.66bn) in Jan
+ Chinese yuan surpassed Japanese yen for 3rd consecutive mth become world’s 4th most active currency in Jan, accounting 4.51% global payments
+ China’s new year holiday spending last week surged past pre-pandemic levels: official figures
+ China and US maintained communication through bilateral and multilateral channels on debt issues: FM
+ Shanghai Composite Index regaining 3000 pts, recovering all losses since beginning 2024
-China 10 Year Govt Bond Yield decreased to 21-year low of 2.4%, bond yield down 51.9 bps last 12 mths
+ GZ banks further ease first home mortgage requirement
+ Ping An real estate gets US$1.1bn credit line as debt pressure mounts
+ China >300 tech firms will attend annual Mobile World Congress (MWC) 2024 in Barcelona
+ China explores ways to attract foreign media: state media
+ Huawei mulls relaunch of EV to boost interest amid rollout delays
+ China’s home-developed C919, ARJ 21 debut at Singapore Airshow
+ HK annual inflation rate slowed to 1.7% in Jan from 2.4% in previous mth, vs market forecasts of 2.2%
+ Macau tourist arrivals rose by 105% YoY to 2,861,609 in Jan, recovery to 84% of level in same mth 2019
*EUROPE*
-ECB officials agreed that it was premature to discuss interest rate cuts: Minutes
+ Eurozone inflation rate confirmed at 2.8% in Jan vs Dec’s 2.9%, above ECB’s target of 2%
-EBC reported record loss 2023, further losses likely as aggressive interest rate hikes fore it to pay out billions of euros to banks
-EU adopted its 13th package of sanctions against Russia, targeting 106 individuals and 88 entities
-EU placed tighter trade restrictions on Chinese companies that it claims are supporting Russia
-German economy is in “troubled waters”, govt forecast for growth 2024 had been revised down from 1.3% to 0.2%: Ministry
-Germany’s economy contracted by 0.3% in final qtr 2023 after 2 consecutive periods of stagnation
-German economic downturn deepened in Feb, HCOB Composite PMI fell to 46.1 in Feb from 47.0 in Jan
-German Ifo Buz Climate at 85.5 in Feb, remain little changed for 3.5 yrs low of 85.2
+ German Mercedes-Benz regained top position as world’s most valuable auto brand, overtaken rival Tesla
+ BoE rate cuts likely later but larger: Goldman Sachs
+ UK S&P Global Services PMI held steady at 54.3 in Feb at 8-mth high
-UK S&P Global Flash Manufacturing PMI edged up to 47.1 in Feb vs Jan 47, below forecasts
+ UK S&P Global Composite PMI for Feb increased to 53.3 from 52.9 in Jan at 9-mth high
+ UK energy regulator announced household electricity and gas bill will fall by 12% at start of Apr
-Barclays must face US shareholders lawsuit over US$17.7bn debt sale blunder: US judge
-Spanish farmers drive hundreds of tractors to Madrid, protesting excess red tape and insufficient state aid
-France HCOB flash PMI services sector rose to 48 above 45.6 forecast in Reuters poll, vs Jan’s 45.4 pts
-Maersk warned of prolonged Red Sea crisis, suspended vessel transits via key trade route in Jan due to Houthi attacks
+ Turkey ends hiking cycle after 8 mths, holding key rate at 45%
+ Russian to triple LNG exports by 2030, currently rank 4th in world
-Russia seized >US$1bn of German firm Linde’s assets over its refusal to honour contract to build gas processing plan
-Israel’s GDP contracted nearly 20% in Q4 amid Gaza war
*ASIA*
+ BoJ to scrap negative interest rates in Apr, according to >80% of economists polled by Reuters
+ Japan’s exports surged nearly 12% in Jan in 2nd straight mth of gains, trade deficit shrinks to US$12bn, abt half was a yr earlier
-Japan govt downgraded its view on economy in Feb for first time in 3 mths on sluggish consumer spending
+ Japan’s exports to China surged 29.2% in Jan YoY
+ Japan’s Nikkei closes at all-time high, breaking bubble era record set in 1989
+ Japanese companies about 35% operating in Russia continue doing business “as usual”: Japan trade body
+ India business activity expanded at fastest pace in 7th mths in Feb as demand remained strong both manufacturing and services
-India will not rush into signing FTA unless there is an equitable and fair balance in trade deals: minister
+ India to become 3rd largest economy by 2027, market cap to hit US$10 trillion by 2030: Jefferies
+ Saudi civil aviation delegation visited Chinese aircraft manufacturing, toured COMAC’s factories and facilities
*ASEAN*
+ Indonesia’s balance of payment posted US$6.3bn surplus in 2023: Bank Indonesia
+ Indonesia aims to further reduce logistics costs to 8% of GDP, after lowering it from 24% to 14% past decade
+ Thailand export surged 10% YoY to US$22.65bn in Jan, fastest in 19 mths, imports up by 2.8% YoY to US$25.41bn
+ Malaysia recording its highest-ever approved investment of RM329.5bn in 2023
+ Malaysia’s leading economic index up 0.3% MoM in Dec after 0.5% rise in Nov, 2nd straight mth of growth
+ Malaysia annual inflation at 1.5% in Jan, staying at its lowest since Feb 2021
-Malaysia Ringgit fell to its lowest level since Asian Financial Crisis 26 years ago
+ Malaysia’s food prices up by 2% YoY in Jan, slowing form 2.3% gain in Dec to the slowest rise since Oct 2021
+ Sg annual inflation rate fell to 2.9% in Jan from 3.7% in Dec, vs market forecasts of 3.8%, lowest since Sept 2021
+ Sg food consumer prices advanced by 3.3% YoY in Jan, slowing from 3.7 rise in Dec
+ Sg full-scale Airshow returns after 6 years
+ Sg to invest up to S$100m in 10 Gbps fibre network upgrade
Contribution by Derek@valueinvestments chat group. Thank you.
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