Wolf Money(world market review 29 Jan-4 Feb 2024)

 

Casket Philippines circa 17th century

Manila Galleon Exhibition@Asian Civilisation Museum

Market Summary 29 Jan – 4 Feb 2024

*USA* 

- Fed leaves interest rates unchanged, indicates it is not ready to start cutting 

+ US year-ahead inflation expectations complied by Uni of Michigan fell to 2.9% in Jan from 3.1 % previous mth, lowest in 3 yrs 

+ US factory orders edged up 0.2% MoM in Dec, following 2.5% up in Nov, in line with market forecasts 

+ US nonfarm payrolls added stunning 353,000 jobs in Jan, jobless rate stayed at 3.7%, average hourly earnings rise 0.6%, up 4.5% YoY 

- US private payroll growth slowed to 107,000 workers in Jan, below downwardly revised 158,000 in Dec and forecasts of 145,000 

- US firms announced highest level of job cuts in Jan since early 2023

+ US consumer sentiment revised higher to 79 in Jan from preliminary of 78.9, highest since Jul 2021 

+ S&P 500 extended gains to hit fresh record high, strong results from megatech firms lifted investors’ mood  

+ US dollar index surged to 104, highest in 7 weeks, prompted by stronger-than-expected US jobs report for Jan 

+ US about 50% companies surveyed see Chian as top 3 global priority despite tense relations: AmCham

- US judge cancelled Musk’s record-breaking US$56bn Tesla pay package, citing compensation granted “an unfathomable sum”

+ Tesla’s latest Cybertruck pickup put on road show across 8 Chinese cities 

- Apple’s China sales fell 13% in Dec qtr

+ Exxon Mobil posted better-than-expected US$36bn profit for 2023

- UPS announced 12,000 job cuts, as package volume slipped last qtr 

*GLOBE*

- World food prices FAO Food Price Index fell for 6th consecutive mth to 118 index pts in Jan, a fresh low since Feb 2021

- Soybean futures down at US$12 a bushel, moving close to 2-year low of US$11.88 

+ IMF upgrades global growth forecast, citing US resilience and policy support in China 

*CHINA*

- China’s official manufacturing PMI rose to 49.2 in Jan from 49 in Dec, official non-manufacturing PMI rose to 50.7 in Jan from 50.4 in Dec   

+ Caixin private manufacturing PMI reached 50.9 in Jan, unchanged from previous mth

+ China’s fiscal expenditures in 2023 hit record of ¥27.46 trillion (US$3.82 trillion), increase of 5.4% YoY

+ China’s service trade up 10% 10% in 2023 to reach ¥6.585 trillion (US$915.6bn) in 2023, setting a new record high 

+ China’s top financial regulator vowed to reform small and medium-size financial institutions to reduce risks 

+ China 31 provincial-level regions set GDP growth targets of about or above 5% for 2024 

+ China several cities rolled out first lists real estate projects eligible for financing to better support development programs 

+ Shanghai further eased restrictions on home purchases in boost for market 

+ China overtook Japan as largest auto exporters in 2023; Japan exported 4.42m vehicles compared China’s 4.91m 

+ China’s exports of NEVs reached record of 1.203m, with YoY growth 77.6%

+ China NEV companies aim to increase or even double sales in 2024

+ China world’s first 4-seat hydrogen-powered aircraft successfully completed its maiden flight in Shenyang 

+ China trade promotion body vowed to step up trade promotion in 2024, to organise overseas trips >1000 business delegations, to stabilise trade amid rising friction  

+ Xinjiang will become export vanguard, manufacturing centre in China

+ China to expand visa-free travel to more countries for mutual visa exemption: FM 

+ China’s consumption of gold jewellery overtook India to become world’s top gold jewellery consumer in 2023: WGC 

+ China-Europe freight trains under BRI in high demand for cargo space amid Red Sea tensions 

+ Alibaba considers sales of consumer assets, including Freshippo, RT-Mart

- China demanded Ukraine immediately removes all 14 Chinese firms from list branded “int’l sponsors of war”

- S&P ratings China unit fined US$300,000 for not conducting credit rating biz in accordance with legal procedures 

+ Jim Rogers: I remain optimistic about Chinese stock market despite recent volatility

- BYD singed land purchase deal for new plant in Hungary 

+ HK number of property transactions, both residential n non-residential units surged 17% in Jan to 4399 deals MoM

- HK high court orders Evergrande Gp to liquidate 

+ InvestHK says city could overtake Singapore for family offices despite big cap in numbers “in a few more years”

*EUROPE*

+ Eurozone core inflation dipped to 3.3% in Jan from 3.4% in Dec

+ German firm KSB Gp will build new factory with investment of €20bn in Shanghai for petrochemical special and standard pumps

+ Ferrari reported net profit of €1.26bn for 2023, topping Wall St’s estimates 

+ Russian central bank: Yuan’s share in Russia’s export has increased from 0.4% to 34.5%, replacing USD as primary currency for foreign trade 

- Turkey’s central bank governor quits, citing need to protect her family amid a “reputation assassination” 

*ASIA*

+ Japan’s agricultural, fisheries and forestry product exports rose 2.9% in 2023 to record ¥1.45 trillion 

- Japanese transport officials raided Toyota-affiliated plant after it admitted to cheating on engine testing 

+ JAL net profit up more than fivefold YoY to ¥85.87 bil in Apr-Dec

+ India cuts import duty on number of mobile phone components ro 10% from 15%

+ Tata and Tiawan contract electronics manufacturer Pegatron in talks for iPhone assembly in India 

*AEEAN*

+ Indonesia mall occupancy rate for 2024 projected to hover at 80% like previous year 

- Thailand’s industrial output contracted by 5.1% in 2023 

+ Malaysia’s PMI at 16-mth high in Jan, overall optimism picked up: S&P

- Najib’s jail term halved to 6 years in royal pardon, expected to complete sentence in 2028

+ Sg manufacturing PMI edged up to 50.7 in Jan from 50.5 in Dec

+ MAS left monetary policy setting unchanged, full-year headline inflation now projected at 2.55 to 3.5%

+ DPM Wong to deliver Budget 2024 speech on Feb 16

+ Sg expects to receive 15m-16m visitors in 2024, below pre-Covid levels 

- Sg retrenchments more than double to 14,320, employment growth slows in 2023

Contribution by Derek@valueinvestments chat group. Thank you

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