Wolf Money(world market review 26 Feb-3 March 2024)
Market Summary 26 Feb – 3 Mar 2024
*USA*
+ Fed’s Reserve Bank of NY Williams reiterates rate cut likely later this year
+ US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI revised upward to 52.2 in Feb, surpassing preliminary estimate of 51.5 and Jan’s 50.7
-US ISM Manufacturing PMI fell to 47.8 in Feb from 49.1 in Jan
-US Year-Ahead inflation expectations confirmed at 3% in Feb, from a 3-year low of 2.9% in Jan
+ US PCE price index up 0.3% MoM in Jan
+ US core PCE prices, exclude food and energy, up by 0.4% MoM in Jan, the most since Feb 2023
+ US personal spending increased by 0.2% MoM, slowdown from 0.7% rise in Dec
+ US personal income rose by 1% MoM in Jan, up from 0.3% in prior mth, largely exceeding market forecasts of 0.4% advance
-US Deputy Treasury Secretary: China’s woes won’t slow US economy, but excess manufacturing capacity spilling over to global economy a concern
-US initial jobless claims jumped by 13,000 to 215.000 on week ending Feb 24th
-US construction spending down by 0.2% from previous mth in Jan
-US pending home sales dropped by 4.9% from previous mth in Jan, largest decline since Aug 2023
-US 10-year Treasury note yield fell to below 4.2% to 3-week low
+ California approved Waymo robotaxi services in LA, SP neighbouring cities
-Nvidia CEO says AI could pass human tests in 5 years
-US and its allies will keep seeking options to tap US$300bn in frozen Russian sovereign assets: Yellen
-Apple scraped its electric car project, called Project Titan, to shift its resources to AI innovation and development
*WORLD*
-WTO meeting in UAE ended failing to reach agreements on several major initiatives
-OPEC+ some members have agreed to extend voluntary 1st qtr oil output cuts into 2nd qtr
*CHINA*
+ China to enter the 2 sessions period on Monday, key year for achieving goals outlined in national 14th five-year plan (2012-2025)
+ China’s parliament expected to unveil moderate stimulus plans to stabilise growth
-China’s manufacturing activity in Feb shrank for 5th straight mth, official PMI index by NBS fell to 49.1 from 49.2 in Jan
+ China private Caixin Manufacturing PMI reached 50.9 in Feb, up from 50.8 in Jan, strongest pace since Aug 2023
+ China Services PMI increased to 51.4 in Feb from 50.7 in Jan, 14thstragiht mth of expansion, strongest pace since last Sept
-China’s trade faces complex and uncertain environment: commerce ministry
+ China average new home prices across 100 cities rose 0.14% vs 0.15% gain in Jan
-China suspense and fines Shanghai Weiwan Private Fund Mgnt for high-frequency trading in index-futures contracts
+ China to boost int’l air connectivity, build up airports’ hubs in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou
-China vowed to take “necessary measures“ in response to Western sanctions on Chinese firms over Russia-Ukraine conflict
-China’s population decreased by 2.08m in 2023
+ China’s national carbon emissions trading has become largest worldwide for greenhouse gas emissions: official
+ China, US passenger flights to increase to 100/week from Mar 31
+ China to lift foreigners’ single mobile payment cap from US$1k to US$5k and annual transaction limit from US$10k to US$50k
+ China govt urged cities and local govts to prevent property market fluctuations with balanced plans of housing supply n demand
+ China developed ARJ21, C919 will carry out demonstration flights in Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, Malaysia and Indonesia: COMAC
+ Chinese passenger airlines to increase weekly round-trip flights to US from current 35 to 50 from Mar 31
+ HK budget announced immediate removal of all property cooling measures for residential properties
-HK retail sales dropped 1.2% YoY in Jan, first decline in retail activity since Dec 2022
+ Taiwan consumer confidence index rose to 73.2 in Feb from 72.14 in previous mth, highest reading since Jan 2022
+ TSMC officially opened Japan’s most advanced wafer fab in Kumamoto
*EUROPE*
-Eurozone Feb factory activity contracted for 20th mth: PMI dipped to 46.5 from 46.6 in Jan
+ Eurozone consumer price inflation rate declined to 2.6% YoY in Feb, down from 2.8% previous mth
-EU failed to pass law requiring human rights and environmental audits on Chinese suppliers
+ Airbus has explored buying Spirit A220 wings plan: sources
-Germany’s manufacturing sector downturn deepened in Feb, HCBO final PMI fell to 42.5 from 45.5 in Jan
-Germany households prices for heating, electricity and refuelling reportedly 41% higher in 2024 than before the crisis
+ Volkswagen, Xpeng signed agreement to co-develop new EV models tailored for Chinese market
+ UK house prices in Feb rose 1.2% YoY, up for the 1st time in more than a year
-Italy recorded a budget deficit of €149.5bn in 2023, equivalent to 7.2% of GDP
+ Russia’s manufacturing sector expanded in Feb at fastest pace in 7 years; robust domestic demand offset declining new exports
-Russia hinted at higher taxes for wealthy individuals and companies
*OCEANIA* / *ASIA*
-Australia’s Index of Commodity Prices declined by 11% YoY in Feb, at 12th consecutive mth of contraction
-Japan au Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI at 47.2 in Feb, unrevised from preliminary figures, the 9th straight mth of decline
-Japan’s Jan factory output fell at fastest pace since May 2020, industrial output fell 7.5% from previous mth
+ Japan’s consume confidence index advanced to 39.1 in Feb, highest reading since Dec 2021
+ India’s economy grew 8.4% during Oct-Dec qtr, fastest pace in 1.5 years, vs 6.6% estimated by economists polled by Reuters
+ India’s Feb manufacturing industry expanding at fastest pace in 5 mths rose to 56.9 from Jan’s 56.5
+ India’s goods and services tax (GST) collection in Feb rose 12.5% to US$20.8bn
+ Sout Korea posted trade surplus of US$4.3bn in Feb, shifting from deficit of US$5.38bn YoY
-South Korea imports shrank 13.1% YoY to US$48.1bn in Feb
*ASEAN*
-Indonesia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI at 52.7 in Feb from Jan’s 5-mth peak of 52.9, at 30th straight of growth
-Indonesia annual inflation increased to 2.75% in Feb at 3-mth high
-Philippines producer prices dropped 1% YoY in Jan, sharpest fall since Jun 2021
-Malaysia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI rose to 49.5 in Feb from 49 in Jan, the softest since decline began in Sept 2022
-Sg to tighten foreign worker quota, raise levies for marine and offshore engineering
+ Sg adding >S$300m to a govt fund for tourism development, to facilitate post-pandemic tourism recovery
-Sg hotels’ average room rate fell 1.4% MoM in Jan to S$278.75m from S$282.6m from Dec
Contribution by Derek@valueinvestments chat group. Thank you.
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