Wolf Money(world market review 17-23 Jun 2024)

 

(St. Andrew Cathedral@City Hall)

 

Market Summary 17-23 Jun 2024

*USA* 

-US budget deficit will jump to US$1.915 trillion for fiscal 2024, topping last yr’s US$1.695 trillion, largest outside Covid-19 era 

-US current account deficit up by US$15.8bn to US$237.6bn in Q1, equivalent to 3.4% of GDP, highest in 7 qtrs 

-US retail sales rose 0.1% MoM vs 0.3% consensus; April was revised to 0.2% contraction rather than 0% initially reported 

-US job market shows signs of cooling, initial jobless claims eased by 5000 to 238,000, close to 10-mth high 

+ US manufacturing production surged 0.9% in May following a downwardly revised 0.4% drop in Apr

+ US business inventories rebounded 0.3% in Apr after dipping 0.1% in Mar 

-US equity funds witnessed outflows for 2nd successive week, offloaded net US$8.37bn following US$21.54bn previous wk 

-US existing home sales fell for 3rd straight mth in May, record high prices, rising mortgage rates depress home sales 

+ US existing home sales fell 0.7% in May, housing inventory up 18.5% YoY, median house prices rise 5.8% to record US$419,300

-US housing starts fell 5.5% in May to lowest since 2020, led by sharp drop in multifamily projects

-US building permits fell 3.8% to seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.386m in May, lowest since Jun 2020

-US banking regulators found weaknesses in the resolution plans of 4 of the 8 largest American lenders

+ US Treasury received US$565.7m in proceeds from auctions to sell warrants in 11 major airlines govt in exchange for Covid-19 assistance 

-US DoJ considering a deal with Boeing that would allow the company to avoid criminal liability over 737 Max 8 crashes 

-Biden may tap US strategic oil reserves to reduce prices at the pump ahead of election: FT 

+ US jet fuel output rises to pre-Covid levels as demand soars

*SOUTH AMERICA*

-Brazilian real weakened past 5.45 per USD, lowest in nearly 2 years 

*CHINA*

+ China’s economy set to rebound steadily in Q2; steady demand recover, resilient exports and low comparison base previous yr

+ China left benchmark lending rates unchanged, 1-year loan prime rate at 3.45%, 5-year at 3.95%  

+ China’s key plenum aims changes to tax system will focus on allowing local govts to retain more fiscal revenues: policy advisers 

+ China will flexibly use various monetary policy tools including interest rates and reserve requirement ratios: PBOC 

+ China’s latest property support measures have boosted transactions in its biggest cities 

+ China unveiled new measures to deepen reform of STAR market 

-China’s banking regulator orders small banks to curtail wealth management business in bid to curb financial risks: sources 

+ China is building nuclear reactors faster than US, firms are up to 15 yrs ahead of US counterparts when comes to latest reactor technology” US think tank 

-Chinese automakers urged govt to hike tariffs on imported European gasoline-powered cars in retaliation on curbs on Chinese EV

-China may levy provisional anti-dumping duties on EU pork imports 

-China imposed sanctions against some Lockheed Martin subsidiaries and senior executives over US arms sales to Taiwan 

+ China’s travel and tourism to contribute 10% or record-breaking ¥12.62 trillion into its economy in 2024: WTTC CEO

-China asked Visa, Mastercard to cut card fees: Bloomberg

+ Huawei said it had made breakthroughs in fields from OS to AI, Harmony OS now available on >900m devices 

-China’s sales at big e-commerce festival drop for the first time, “618”,2nd biggest annual discount event sales event down 7% YoY 

-China’s richest ppl are avoiding flaunting their wealth in favour of more discreet fashion: Bain 

-Shein could face more trademark scrutiny under new EU rule that tightens oversight on IP rights 

*EUROPE*

-European Commission said France and 6 other countries should be disciplined for running budget deficits in excess of EU limits 

-EU agreed on 14th package of sanctions against Russia over war in Ukraine 

-Germany building permits for apartments fell 17% in Apr YoY, most severe slump in property sector in decades 

-Germany’s Economy Minister doesn’t expect to reach a solution to EU tariff tensions on his China trip 

-BMW Gp cancelled a US$2bn order for battery cells from Swedish battery maker Northvolt AB as it is behind schedule 

-UK public debt rose to £2.742 trillion last mth or 99.8% of GDP, highest since 1961

+ UK inflation dropped to 2% target for the first time in nearly 3 yrs in May 

+ BOE keeps rates unchanged at 16-yr high of 5.25% before UK election, hits that first rate cut is drawing nearer 

-France has the largest public debt load in Europe at €2.3 trillion; investors’ are concerned over far-right victory in upcoming elections 

+ Swiss National Bank makes 2nd interest rate cut by 25bps to 1.25%

-Russia has “wide arsenal of countermeasures” in the event that its assets are seized in the West: Ministry 

+ Russia’s largest private lender Alfa Bank expanding to China

+ Turkey on the verge of sharp fall in inflation: FM 

-Ukraine failed to strike deal with group of foreign bondholders include BlackRock, Pimco on restricting US$20bn Eurobonds 

*ASIA* / *OCENIA*

+ Japan’s factory activity expanded for 2nd straight mth in Jun stood at 50.1vs 50.4 in May

-Japanese manufacturers are less confident than 3 mths ago due to higher materials costs: Reuters 

-Nissan decided to close its automobile manufacturing plant in China following a decline in sales 

+ India BSE Sensex at new record peak, metal, real estate and bank stocks led the indexes 

-South Korean won depreciated past 1385 per USD in Jun, reaching 18-mth low 

+ Australia to be included in China’s visa waiver programme

*ASEAN*

+ Indonesia competitiveness rose by 7 places to 27th in rankings, surpassed Japan, UK, highest in past 6 yrs  

+ Thai govt developing plan to create 280,000 new jobs in tech market within next 5 yrs 

+ Thailand BOI approved investment worth US$1.54bn in Biochemicals, Data Centres, Hospital

+ Malaysia preparing to join BRICS economic group 

-Malaysia Airports privatisation will not involve BlackRock after criticism over alleged ties to Israel  

+ Genting Malaysia signed US$962.8m deal for floating LNG facility from China’s Wison New Energies

+ Malaysia and China to sign several deals, including renewing a 5-year trade and economic cooperation agreement 

+Taiwan’s EMC begins construction of US$191mil plant in Penang

-Sg non-oil domestic exports edged down 0.1% in May YoY, electronic exports expanded 21.9% in May  

-Condo rents fell 0.5% MoM and 4.5% YoY in May, HDB rents down 0.3% MoM, rose 6.2% YoY in May 

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