Wolf Money(world market review 1-7 July 2024)
Market Summary 1-7 Jul 2024
*USA* / *CANADA*
+ US nonfarm payrolls rose 206,000 in Jun vs revised 218k in May, jobless rate up 0.1% MoM at 4.1% to 6.8m, highest since Nov 2021, govt and healthcare sector saw biggest expansion in workforce
+ Fed on Jul 5: inflation is easing, job market has returned to the “tight but not overheated” situation seen before Covid-19
+ US composite PMI output index at 54.8 in Jun vs 54.5 in May, fastest increase in business activity since Apr 2022: S&P Global
-US ISM services PMI tumbled to 48.8 in Jun, sharpest contraction since Apr 2020, vs expectation of 52.5
-US new orders for manufactured goods fell by 0.5% MoM in May
+ US average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls up by 0.3% or 10 cents to US$35 in Jun
-US initial jobless claims rose by 4000 to 238,000 last wk of Jun vs market expectations of 235,000, close to 10 mths high
-US private businesses added 150k workers to their payrolls in Jun, the least in 5 mths vs forecasts of 160k
-US employers announced 48,786 job cuts in Jun, down by 23.6% from May’s 63,816, but highest Jun total since 2020
+ S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 both closed at record highs on Friday
-US trade deficit widened to US$75.1bn in May, largest since Oct 2022 from revised US$74.5bn in Apr
+ US imports fell by US$1.2bn or 0.3% MoM to US$336.7bn in May, exports down 0.7% or US$1.8bn to US$261.7bn
-US average rate for 30-yr fixed mortgage rose by 9 bps to 6.95% as of 3rd Jul, rebounding from lowest level in nearly 3 mths
-US crude oil inventories fell by 12.157m barrels in week ended 28 Jun, the most in a year, vs market expectations of 0.9m down
-US DOJ will allow Boeing to avoid criminal trial if it agrees to plead guilty to a fraud charge related to 2 fatal crashes: Bloomberg
-US seaports urged Biden to rethink a proposed 25% duty on Chinese-made gantry cranes: Bloomberg
+ Tesla’s factories in China were visited by EU inspectors, could potentially lead to Tesla receiving duty below average of 21% in Europe
+ Tesla Model Y included in China’s Jiangsu provincial govt’s procurement list for the first time
+ Nvidia could generate US$12bn from AI chips in China in 2024
-GM to pay US$145.8m fine in US over excess emissions and retire about 50m metric tons of greenhouse gas credits
-Canada’s economy lost net 1400 jobs in Jun, jobless rate at 6.4% to 29 mths high
-Canada posted largest trade deficit since Jun 2023 at CAD1.93bn in May vs market forecasts of CAD1.2bn
*CHINA*
+ Caixin General Manufacturing PMI at 51.8 in Jun, saw fastest-growth in activity in 3 yrs, up 0.1 pts from May
-China’s services activity grew at slowest pace in 8 mths in Jun, down 2.8 pts from May to 51.2 in Jun
+ Caixin BBD New Economy index at 32.4 in Jun, accounted for 32.4% of China’s overall economic input activities, biggest in 7 yrs
-China announced next stage in its investigation into EU brandy imports in response to duties on EVs
-China tightens its control on its rare earth supply chain, to ensure industrial security of its natural resources
+ China to make forward-looking arrangements for future industries including humanoid robots and brain-computer interface
+ Chinese AI companies are showcasing latest upgrades on large models, challenging ChatGPT4 at WAIC in Shanghai in response to OpenAI’s recent decision to suspend services to Chinese developers
-China automakers firms and industry associations are taking active actions against EU’s provisional tariffs on Chinese EVs
-Vanke-Linked company sold almost its entire stake in Shanghai Mall to Singapore GIC subsidy Reco Yiyuan PL
+ China’s first domestically-developed 15 MW heavy-duty gas turbine “G15” rolled off the assembly line
+ Huawei sold EV brand Aito’s trademarks, patents to Chinese car marker Seres for US$344m
+ BYD launched first-ever EV factory in Thailand, first in SEA
+ SAIC Motor, Pony.ai get green light to operate unmanned Robotaxis in Shanghai
-HK private sector S&P Global PMI dropped to 48.2 in Jun vs 49.2 in May, steepest decline since Sept 2022
-HK foreign exchange reserves decreased to US$416.3bn in Jun at 8-mth low
+ Taiwan’s foreign exchange reserves rose to new record high of US$573.3bn in Jun
*EUROPE*
-EU imposed provisional tariffs on EVs imported from China, leaving 4 mths window for both sides to resolve issues
-Eurozone composite PMI hits 3-mth low in Jun at 50.9
-EU retail sales edged up 0.1% MoM in May vs upwardly revised 0.2% fall in Apr
-Eurozone construction PMI fell to 5-mth low of 41.8 in Jun vs 42.9 in May
+ Airbus awarded a €2.1bn contract by German armed forces for military satellite system
-Germany industrial production declined by 2.5% MoM in May vs market estimates of 0.2% growth
-Germany factory orders dropped by 1.6% in May following revised 0.6% down in Apr
+ Germany’s VDA auto association urging European Commission to drop its planned tariffs on Chinese EVs
+ UK Labour leader Starmer officially become new PM after a landslide victory in GE
-France’s trade deficit widened to €8bn in May from downwardly revised €7.5bn in Apr, largest in 7 mths
-France industrial production shrank 2.1% MoM in May, biggest drop since Oct 2022
+ Russia’s oil revenues from oil exports surged close 50% in Jun YoY due to higher prices for Urals crude
+ Russia retail sales rose 7.5% YoY in May, flowing an 8.2% surge in Apr
+ Russian natural gas exports to EU soaring by nearly a quarter
+ Turkey expected to unveil US$1bn EV plant with China’s BYD
*ASIA* / *OCENIA*
-Asia-Pacific region, excluding Japan, recorded 25% YoY decline of 25% in investment banking fees to US$9.3bn in H1
-Japan household spending declined in real terms by 1.8% YoY in May, 4th time of all this year
-Japan foreign reserves fell to US$1.231 trillion in Jun at 16-mth low
+ Japanese to subsidise Antibiotics supply chain to reduce heavy exposure to China
+ Softbank reaching out to banks to borrow US$10bn for energy-related projects that would catapult in into AI race
+ South Korea’s current account shifted to surplus of US$8.92bn in May from deficit of US$0.29bn in Apr
+ Samsung expects operating profit for Q2 to surge 1432% to US$7.5bn
+ Qatar Airways posted 39% jump in annual net profit to record profit of US$1.7bn during 2023/24 fiscal
+ Tajikistan to become a ‘connecting bridge’ between China, Central Asia under BRI development: Global Times
+ Australia’s exports of goods grew 2.8% MoM to 3-mth high of AUD43.98bn in May, boosted by metal ores and minerals
*ASEAN*
+ Indonesia foreign reserves increased to US$140.2bn in Jun to 3 mths high, supported by higher tax and service revenues
+ Indonesia launched first EV battery plant, JV between Hyundai Motor and LG Energy
+ Indonesia’s poverty rate dropped to historic low this year, inequality hit lowest pt in more than a decade
+ Thailand approved 2 companies to develop large data centres worth US$280m, ramps up push to become hub for data centres
+ Malaysia has affirmed ratings of BBB+ by FITCH for its long-term foreign-currency issuer default with stable outlook
+ Malaysia 3000 smart factories powered by 5G to be in operation by 2030, expected to contribute RM36.8bn to national GDP: Minister
-Malysia govt must take switch action to protect its steel industry players due to unfair imports: MISIF president
+ Malaysia SMEs registered double digit sales or revenue growth in 2023: SAMENTA
-Malaysia MRT Corp’s losses hit RM57.6bn, MRT1 and MRT2 have failed to meet targets for daily ridership: AG’s report
-Malaysia palm reserves seen at 4-mth high on low demand as exports grower slumped
-Johor RTS Link project estimated cost overrun by 29.9% or RM1.2bn as of Dec 31 2023: AG Report
+ Johor received RM113.7bn in investments, created 35,000 jobs opportunities in 2 yrs, making the state the largest importer and exporter in the country: MB
-Sg overall factory activity grew more slowly in Jun, PMI dipped 0.2 pts to 50.4, lowest pt this year, electronic PMI at 51.2, continued expansion for 8 consecutive mths
+ Sg retail sales rose 2.2% YoY in May vs 1.2% down in Apr, highest surplus in nearly 3 yrs
+ Sg govt to reduce regulatory burden and lowering costs for businesses by making application process for licenses, regulatory approvals faster and better: Minister
+ STB launched a concept n price revenue tender for 42,000sqm to develop, operate a wellness attraction on Marina South Site
Contribution by Derek@valueinvestments chat group. Thank you
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