Wolf Money(world market review 8-15 Jul 2024)
Market Summary 8-14 Jul 2024
*USA*
+ Powell: Fed will not wait for the country’s annual inflation to fall below target of 2% before introducing first cut in interest rates
+ Fed faces cooing job market as well as persistently high prices; suggests it is moving closer to cutting interest rates
+ US consumer price index fell for the first time in 4 yrs at 3% in Jun amid lower gasoline costs and moderating rents
-Fed has quite a way to go in trimming the size of balance sheet with endpoint of quantitative tightening still uncertain: Powell
-US Uni of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment index down 3.2% at 66 this mth vs final reading 68.2 in Jun
+ S&P 500 and DJIA hitting record highs on optimism that Fed will be cutting interest rates in Sept, hitting 33 times high this yr
-US equity funds faced first weekly outflow in 3 weeks, investors sold net US$3.57bn worth of US equity, partly reversing net US$8.56bn worth of purchases previous week
+ US more brokerages forecast Fed rate cut in Sept after unexpected drop in consumer prices in Jun
+ US producer prices index for final demand rose 0.2% in Jun
+ US initial jobless claims dipped 17,000 to 222,000, lowest level since late May
-US office loans overall rate of delinquencies or late payments rose to 2.45% in Jun from 2.42% in May at US$1.92bn YoY
+ US announced US$1.7bn in grants for auto factories in 8 states to boost EV output
-US is adopting new measures to prevent China from circumventing tariffs on steel and aluminium imported from 3rd countries through Mexico
+ JPMorgan profit rises to record for Q2 as resurgence in dealmaking and strong capital fuelled record results
+ Citigroup beat expectations for Q2, boosted by jump in investment banking, markets and services revenue
-Wells Fargo’s Q2 profit declined, missed estimates for interest income on higher deposit costs
-Boeing agreed to plead guilty to criminal fraud conspiracy charge in US probe of two 737 MAX fatal crashes, deliveries down 32% in Q2
*GLOBE*
+ IMF: gross capital inflow into emerging markets excluding China rose to US$10bn or 0.6% of their economic output, highest level since 2018
*CHINA*
+ China’s trade surplus surged to US$99.05bn in Jun from US$69.8bn same period last yr, largest surplus in near 2 yrs
+ China’s exports up 8.6% YoY to 21-mth high of US$307.9bn in Jun, imports down 2.3% YoY to 4-mth low of US$208.81bn
-Chinese banks extended ¥213 trillion in new yuan loans in Jun vs ¥305 trillion in previous year
+ China’s CPI in Jun rose 0.2% YoY vs 0.3% uptick in May, slowest in 3 mths
+ China’s total foreign exchange reserves stood at US$3.224 trillion at end Jun, down by 0.3% MoM
+ China suspended securities relending to curb instability caused by short-selling
+ China equity funds saw rising capital inflows for 5 consecutive weeks
+ China further opens up service sector in 6 cities across various areas, including tourism, cultural and telecom industries
+ China is leading the world in the use of generative AI: survey
+ China several leading telecom operators plan to purchase more domestically made CPUs
+ China is building almost twice as much wind and solar energy capacity as every other country combined: Report
+ China’s visa-free policy boosts flights by >20%, saw foreign arrivals increase to 14.64m in H1, up by 153% YoY
+ China’s summer grain harvest increased by 2.5% YoY to 150m tons, further enabling food security
+ China to further diversify soybean imports for stable supply following first soybean purchase from US this year
-China launched a trade and investment barrier probe adopted by EU in its foreign subsidy investigations
-China’s natural disasters flooding, drought, extreme temperature resulted in US$12.83bn worth of direct economic loss in H1
+ China’s sales of NEVs at 4.94m units in H1, up by 32% YoY
-China’s wholesale vehicle reached 2.55m units in Jun, down 2.7% YoY
*EUROPE*
-ECB gone too far in pushing UniCredit to quit Russia: Italy Minister
+ Airbus launched cost cuts and freeze on overall headcounts to shore up performance at its core plane making in 2024 n beyond
-Germany ‘s wholesale prices dropped 0.6% YoY in Jun vs 0.7% fall in May
+ Germany set to abstain in vote on EU tariffs for China EVs
-Mercedes-Benz Gp posted 6% drop in EV demand inQ2
-Porsche’s sales delivered 155,945 vehicles worldwide in H1, down by 7%
+ UK economy output up 0.4% in May after 0 growth in Apr
+ Russia’s revenues from oil exports continue to surge almost 50% YoY in Jun
*ASIA* / *OCENIA*
-BoJ likely trim this year’s economic growth forecast in Jul, project inflation to stay around 2% target in coming yrs
-BoJ data released suggested Japan may have spent up to 3.57 trillion yen (US$22.4bn) intervening in foreign exchange market to pop up sagging currency
+ India’s industrial output grew 5.9% YoY in May, amid higher growth in mining and electricity sectors
+ India plans to overhaul >200 state-run firms to make them more profitable, signalling departure from Modi’s privatisation plans
+ Hyundai’s H1 sales in India reached record high hitting 272,207 units, up 2% on annual basis
-Saudi “privately hinted” might sell some of its EU debt holdings if G7 went ahead with confiscation of Russian assets: Bloomberg
+ Rio Tinto considers US$32bn deal with Canadian mining company
*ASEAN*
-Indonesia’s fiscal deficit projected to be much larger than planned due to excess spending, tax shortfall
+ Thailand announced strategies to attract 40m foreign tourists, generate US$113.3bn in tourist revenue in 2025
-Vietnam’s VinFast delayed US EV plant amid market slowdown
+ Malaysia industrial production up 2.4% YoY in May, vs 6.1% growth in Apr, below market forecasts of 3.5% gain
+ Johor Singapore-SEZ to be finalised in Sept
+ Malaysia’s wholesale and retail trade up 7.1% to RM147.9bn in May: DoSM
+ Malaysia set to become BRICS’ partner country soon: Anwar
+ Malaysia’s healthcare industry to contribute US$4.19bn to economy: MATRADE
+ Sg economy grew 2.9% YoY in Q2 vs revised growth rate of 3% in Q1: MIT
+ Sg over 9 in 10 firms keen to invest in proposed SEZ in Johor: SBF report
+ Sg SMEs in expansionary mode after 5 straight qtrs of contraction, led by export-oriented industries: OCBC
+ Sg to stop registration of new diesel cars and taxis from 1 Jan 2025
Contribution by Derek@valueinvestments chat group. Thank you.
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