Lone wolf investor

(Golden Chance of Second Chance)   Lone Wolf Fund(LWF) Portfolio as at end of Sept 2024 1.) Cash 2.)  Singapore Post Ltd *Stocks are not rank in accordance to capital invested .  *Just for sharing. Not an inducement to buy or sell . Commentary    STI did a stunning turnaround to become one of Asia’s best performing markets since hitting the lows in Aug. Although, I am critical of the past performance of the Singapore market. The Sept performance was the best I had seen in years. I do need to give credit to our market when it is due. I have been selling some of my positions which I have held for a few months. Wilmar was sold due to its underperformance and the additional hurdle for GRAB to turn a profit with the mandated CPF contribution was the main reason for the sale. The timing of the Second Chance Ltd delisting was impeccable. Second Chance $300m worth of marketable securities are mostly comprised of REITs. With the share price of REITs running up, the owner...

(Image credit: AZ Quotes)    Market Summary 23-29 Sept 2024 USA / ZNORTH AMERICA* + US consumer spending rose 0.2% in Aug after an unrevised 0.5% gain in Jul  + US PCE price index rose 0.1% MoM, putting 12-mth inflation rate at 2.2% in aug -US conference board’s consumer confidence index slide to 98.7 vs 105.6 in Aug, biggest 1-mth decline since Aug 2021  + Traders now see Fed delivering another 50bps rate cut in Nov after govt report showed inflation rose modestly in Aug  + US mortgage applications soared 11% from previous wk, extending surge of 14.2%, lift application volumes to highest since Jun 2022  + US new single-family homes declined by 4.7% in Aug to 716,000 units vs forecasts of 700,000 units  -US strike looms as at busiest ports as 45,000 workers prepare to walk off job, could hit >50% imports, 15% of global container fleet capacity -US proposed ban on Chinese software and hardware in connected vehicles, would effectively bar Chinese cars...

  The result of this month SSBs was below my expectation. I was expecting Oct SSBs to be in high demand as it provide a decent long term yield, just before the 10 years sgs yield fell off the cliff. Only $193m out of $800m found buyers. Please consider following us on telegram for the latest update on Lone Wolf investor by clicking on the link below. No form filling, no payment required, no collection of data, no data mining, no hard selling, no obligation.  https://t.me/joinchat/oCgkD3sQFRMzMWM1 Disclaimers   All investments is highly speculative in nature and involves substantial risk of loss. We encourage our reader to invest very carefully. We also encourage reader to get personal advice from your professional investment advisor and to make independent investigations before acting on information that we publish. Much of our information is derived directly from information published by companies or submitted to governmental agencies on which we believe are reliable but...

  (Source: CNA) “Lackluxtre”  With the interest rate cut, deals are starting to pop up in our REITs market. Ion Orchard, 50% stake held by CapitaLand was sold to CICT. The deal looks good on paper, where all parties seem to gain from the sale, with CapitaLand getting a lot of cash. The bankers and lawyers doing the deal will be looking forward to a big payday and the REIT shareholders getting an opportunity to buy one of Singapore’s most iconic luxury malls with this accretive purchase. The profile of the mall as you have seen from the first few levels are mostly tier 1 or tier 2 luxury brands. The mall is positioned to be a choice destination for people looking for luxury goods.  From my observation, a lot of luxury brands are facing closure due to poor economic conditions in HK and China. Previously, Hong Kong was known to be the hunting ground for Chinese tourists looking to buy luxury items due to its proximity to the mainland, but Chinese mainlanders are heading to J...

  (Image credit: Womderful Quote) Market Summary 16-22 Sept 2024 *USA*  + Fed cuts rates by 50bps to 4.75%-5%, first reduction in borrowing costs since Mar 2020 + US retail sales edged up 0.1% MoM in Aug, beating forecasts of 0.2% decline + US industrial production rose 0.8% MoM in Aug, the most in 6 mths, vs market expectations of 0.2% increase  -US current account deficit of US$266.8bn in Q2, widening from US$241bn gap in previous period  + US initial jobless fell 12,000 from previous week to 219,000 to 4-mth low  + US housing market needs more Fed rate cuts to boost supply, affordability: Fitch Ratings  + US average rate on 30-year fixed mortgage dropped to 6.09% in Sept, lowest level since early Feb 2023: Freddie Mac  -US existing home sales fell 2.5% MoM to seasonally adjusted annualised rate of 3.86m in Aug  + US housing starts soared 9.6% MoM to annualised rate of 1.356m units in Aug + US building permits rose 4.9% to seasonally adjusted an...

  (Source: MAS) The average 2.77% yield on current issue SSBs is still somewhat attractive given the circumstance surrounding the falling yield of our 10 years SGS. Base on the lower yield of our 10 year bonds, we are heading towards lower yield on SSBs in subsequent months. This is the last month to get a proper long term yield. With long term yields dropping like flies elsewhere due to the aggressive rate cut by the US Fed. SSBs yield will be mimicking the lower rates. Closing date is on the 25th Sept@9pm . Good luck. God Bless. Please consider following us on telegram for the latest update on Lone Wolf investor by clicking on the link below. No form filling, no payment required, no collection of data, no data mining, no hard selling, no obligation.  https://t.me/joinchat/oCgkD3sQFRMzMWM1 Disclaimers   All investments is highly speculative in nature and involves substantial risk of loss. We encourage our reader to invest very carefully. We also encourage reader to get p...

  I did a sale of my small position in GRAB in pre market. With rates decision coming out tonight, i am talking some money off the table. I probably just managed to wipe my face on my GRAB after factoring currency and transaction costs.  As you might have seen it in the news, Singapore passed a law to approve CPF contribution to gig workers. CPF contribution will likely add an additional layer of cost to GRAB. There are news about over supply of PHV on our road and driver are earning lesser. I will explain in greater detail in my month end portfolio update. Thank you. God Bless 🙏 Please consider following us on telegram for the latest update on Lone Wolf investor by clicking on the link below. No form filling, no payment required, no collection of data, no data mining, no hard selling, no obligation.  https://t.me/joinchat/oCgkD3sQFRMzMWM1 Disclaimers   All investments is highly speculative in nature and involves substantial risk of loss. We encourage our reader to ...

  Wilmar stock has been massively underperforming the STI. With the Chinese economy weakening again. I am taking a more cautious view on Chinese related play. Given we had a good run in the market. It makes sense to take some money off the table. Return on Wilmar for the 3 months period is in excess of 4% with dividends included. Cash will be redeployed. God bless.  Please consider following us on telegram for the latest update on Lone Wolf investor by clicking on the link below. No form filling, no payment required, no collection of data, no data mining, no hard selling, no obligation.  https://t.me/joinchat/oCgkD3sQFRMzMWM1 Disclaimers   All investments is highly speculative in nature and involves substantial risk of loss. We encourage our reader to invest very carefully. We also encourage reader to get personal advice from your professional investment advisor and to make independent investigations before acting on information that we publish. Much of our informati...

  (Image credit: BrainyQuote) Market Summary 9-15 Sept 2024 *USA*  + US CPI up 0.2% in Aug, put the 12-mth inflation rate at 2.5%, down 0.4% from Jul level, lowest in 3.5 yrs   + US core CPI up 0.3% in Aug, the 12-mth core inflation rate at 3.2%, in line with forecast  + US producer price index rose 0.2% in Aug MoM, in line with expectations  -US govt for the 1st time has spent >US$1 trillion in fiscal yr on interest payments for its US$35.3 trillion nation debt: Treasury Dept    -US govt has laid out US$1.049 trillion on debt service, up 30% YoY   -USD fell to its lowest level in nearly 9 mths against Japanese yen  + Biden top aides working on proposal for a US sovereign wealth fund would allow to invest in national security interests  + US University of Michigan’s preliminary reading on overall index of consumer sentiment at 69 in Sept vs 67.9 in Aug -US hikes tariffs on Chinese goods, include a 100% duty on Chinese EVs, 50% on sola...

 (Contents) It is always better to gain wisdom from others experiences rather than learning those wisdom by making one of those costly mistakes yourself. You got me? 🙃 The Tao of Charlie Munger by David Clark. By now most value investors would have known Charlie Munger, the better half of Berkshire Hathaway. Charlie Munger, over the years, has given us plenty of his wisdom in the most simplistic form. He had inspired Warren Buffett to ditch the Ben Graham’s cigarette butt approach to buying and holding good companies with strong economic moats. That approach produces much greater returns over the long run. Charlie Munger is very cautious about debt, having suffered under the great stock market fall in 73-74. That experience shaped him into a highly conservative investor. He quotes, “The desire to get rich is pretty dangerous”. Sometimes fast money involves excessive leverage, which can cause a catastrophic outcome.  In the book, a lot of Charlie’s wisdom centre around patien...