Wolf Money(world market review 16-22 Sept 2024)
Market Summary 16-22 Sept 2024
*USA*
+ Fed cuts rates by 50bps to 4.75%-5%, first reduction in borrowing costs since Mar 2020
+ US retail sales edged up 0.1% MoM in Aug, beating forecasts of 0.2% decline
+ US industrial production rose 0.8% MoM in Aug, the most in 6 mths, vs market expectations of 0.2% increase
-US current account deficit of US$266.8bn in Q2, widening from US$241bn gap in previous period
+ US initial jobless fell 12,000 from previous week to 219,000 to 4-mth low
+ US housing market needs more Fed rate cuts to boost supply, affordability: Fitch Ratings
+ US average rate on 30-year fixed mortgage dropped to 6.09% in Sept, lowest level since early Feb 2023: Freddie Mac
-US existing home sales fell 2.5% MoM to seasonally adjusted annualised rate of 3.86m in Aug
+ US housing starts soared 9.6% MoM to annualised rate of 1.356m units in Aug
+ US building permits rose 4.9% to seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.475m in Aug, highest in 5 mths, 4th consecutive gain
+ US mortgage applications surged 14.2% from previous weeks
+ US capital inflow increased for 2nd straight mth in Jul
+ US awarded Intel up to additional US$3bn under the CHIPS and Science Act, to build foundry plants in 4 states as part of it project to increase domestic semiconductor manufacturing for other suppliers
-Intel to halt construction of EU’s 2 chip-making plants worth >US$33bn in Germany
+ Microsoft, BlackRock form group to raise US$100bn to invest in AI data centres
*CHINA*
+ China central bank said there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts
+ China kept its key lending rate unchanged in Sept, 1-yr LPR maintained at 3.35%, 5-yr at 3.85%
+ China released revised draft of long-waited energy law, emphasising renewable energy development and grid upgrades
+ China’s top economic planner NCRC said it is intensifying efforts to spur investment and consumption to boost domestic demand
+ China needs to introduce an economic revitalisation plan that combines stimulus and reform measures to steer the economy back toward a path of expansionary growth; proposed at 3rd qtr forum of China Macroeconomy Forum
+ China shipments of solar cells posted highest growth rate of 47.2%, followed by 33.6% gains for EVs
+ C919 begins ultra-high altitude test flights in Lhasa, also carries out first flight using sustainable fuel
+ China 2 largest state-owned shipbuilding conglomerates CSSC and CSIC announced a stock exchange proposal in merger deal to create world’s largest shipbuilder
+ China, EU expressed political will to resolve differences on EV via consultations
+ China’s new ‘negative list’ for foreign investment removes all access restrictions to manufacturing sector
+ Alibaba launched >100 new open-source AI models, released text-to-video tool
+ China’s sports industry’s annual growth nearly doubles from 2012-2022
+ China has total 36,968 new foreign-invested firms established across the country in first 8 mths, up by 11.5% YoY
+ China and Japan reached a 4-point agreement int’l monitoring on the discharge of Fukushima nuclear contaminated water
-China will suspend import tariff exemption policy for 34 agricultural products imports from Taiwan
+ HK lowered its base rate by 50bps to 5.25%, hours after US 50bps rate cut
+ HK’s current account surplus widened to HKD101.03bni n Q2, doubling from HKD50.71bn same period last yr
*EUROPE*
-EU passenger car registrations slumped by 18.3% YoY to 643,637 units in Aug vs 0.2% growth in Jul
+ EU significant number of companies continue to discreetly do business with Russia despite sanctions: Hungarian Foreign Minister
-EU warned Apple to open up its iPhone and iPad operating systems to 3rd parties or face hefty fines
-Germany’s GDP could stagnate or even decline in Q3: Central bank
-German producer prices shrank by 0.8% YoY in Aug, marked the 14th straight mth of producer deflation
-Mercedes-Benz lowered 2024 earnings outlook
-UK govt borrowing has reached 100% of country’s GDP, highest level since the 1960s:ONS
+ BoE kept bank rate unchanged at 5% during Sept meeting, after 25bps cut in Aug
-UK public sector net borrowing, excluding public sector banks climbed to £13.7bn in Aug from £10.5bn YoY
-UK GfK Consumer Confidence fell to -20 in Sept from -13 in previous 2 mths, hitting lowest level in 6 mths
+ France business climate indicator edged up to 98 in Sept from 97 in Aug, highest in 3 periods
+ Russian economy expanded by 4.1% in Q2, flowing a 4.5% in Q1
+ Russia’s financial authorities reportedly moving towards adopting crypto-currency for int’l trade
*ASIA* / *OCENIA*
-Japan annual inflation rate rose to 3% in Aug from 2.8% in prior 3 mths, highest since Oct 2023
-Japan core inflation rate rose by 2.8% YoY in Aug, highest since Feb
+ Japan exports rose by 5.6% YoY vs 10.2% jump in Jul, imports grew by 2.5%, weakest growth since Mar
+ BoJ held its key short-term interest rate at 0.25% during its Sept meeting, highest level since 2008
-India trade deficit widened to US$29.7bn in Aug, highest in 10 mths
-India exports are facing are facing huge challenge on current global circumstances: Trade Secretary
+ India forex reserves surged to equivalent US$689.5bn as of 13 Sept, highest on record
-South Korea set to review Morgan Stanley’s SK Hynix recent large-scale share sale after bank’s downgrade its rating
-Australia’s jobless rate stool at 4.2% in Aug, unchanged form Jul’s 2.5 yrs high
-New Zealand’s economy contracted 0.2% QoQ or by 0.5% YoY in Q2 as expected
*ASEAN*
+ ASEAN-China trade saw an average annual increase of 11% from 2004 to 2023
+ Indonesia cut its interest rate by 25bps to 6%, first reduction since Jan 2021
+ Thailand draft legislation seeks to curb recreational use of cannabis products
+ Vietnamese budget carrier announced acquisition of US$7.4bn fleet of Airbus widebody aircraft
+ Philippines cuts reserve requirement ratio for universal and commercial banks by 250bps to 7%, lowered RRR for digital banks to 4%
+ Laos-China railway handled >10m tons of goods worth US$5.76bn as of Sept snice its opening on Dec 2021
+ Malaysia exports grew by 12.1% YoY to MYR129.2bn in Aug, imports surged 26.1% YoY to MYR123.49bn to near 2 yrs high
+ Malaysia’s trade at MYR5.7bn in Aug vs estimates of MYR10.4bn, marking 52nd consecutive mth of surplus but smallest surplus since Aug 2018
+ Malaysia’s king to seek funds from Chinese investors for high-speed rail project on China visit
+ Malaysia announced incentive packages to attract int’l capital to Forest City Special Financial Zone, include zero tax for family offices
+ Sg NODX grew 10.7% YoY in Aug vs estimates of 15%, 2nd straight mth of increase amid robust sales of electronic products
-Sg home sales set for worst year since financial crisis, developer sold fewer than 2,700 units through Aug
+ Sg ports could benefit from reshuffling of alliance among world’s largest shipping lines to avoid violence in the Red Sea
+ Sg to extend incentive scheme for EVs by another yr, lowering emissions rebate for hybrid cars
+ URA to offer building owners bonus gross floor area for their developments if they tap greener cooling systems
Contribution by Derek@valueinvestments chat group. Thank you.
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