Wolf Money(world market review 30 Sept - 6 Oct 2024)

-

 

(Image credit: zen-tools.net)


Market Summary 30 Sept – 6 Oct 2024

*USA*

+ Fed likely sticks with quarter percentage pt interest rate cuts moving forward; sees no ‘hurry’ as confidence in economy grows: Powell

+ Goldman Sachs still sees two 25 bps cuts this year after Powell remarks 

+ US nonfarm payrolls up by 254,000 in Sept, jobless rate at 4.1%, gains mainly in food services, healthcare, construction sectors 

+ US private payrolls increased by 143,000 jobs in Sept boosted by hiring in the construction, leisure and hospitality industries 

+ US average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls increased by 13 cents or 0.4% in Sept 

+ US Composite PMI Output Index at 54 in Sept vs 54.6 in Aug  

-US factory orders down by 0.2% in Aug landing at US$590.4bn 

-US job cuts down to 72,821 in Sept, up 53% YoY, in Q3 saw 174,597 cuts, down 16% from previous qtr, but up 19% YoY  

+ Dow posted record closing on Fri as job data eased economic worries 

+ US port strikes ended after dockworkers and port operators reached a wage deal 

-Boeing, striking union to return to negotiations on Monday 

+ Telsa deliveries in Q3 came in at 462,890 units, up 6.4% on annual basis 

+ Google exploring nuclear power to meet AI needs: CEO 

+ Meta announced new AI model that can generate video with sound 

+ OpenAI raised US$6.6bn in its latest funding round, bringing its valuation to US$157bn  

*OTHER*

+ BRICS to admit a dozen new members; next wave expansion will be announced at annual summit in Russian this mth 

-World Food prices rise the most since Mar 2022, FAO Food Price Index up 3% to 124.4 in Sept 

*CHINA*

-China’s manufacturing sector contracted the fastest rate in 14 mths in Sept, Caixin General manufacturing PMI at 49.3

+ China services activity Caixin PMI at 50.3 in Sept, slowest pace in a yr 

+ China new home prices across 100 cities edged up 0.14% in Sept vs 0.11% up in Aug 

+ China commerce ministers and US will hold a call in near future on trade and economic ties 

+ China 4 biggest cities BJ, SH, SZ and GZ have relaxed curbs on homebuying and lowered down payment ratios 

+ RMB cross-border use up >20% in first 8 mths 

+ China ranks first in driving world economic growth from 1979 to 2023: NBS 

+ China major EV makers like BYD, XPeng and Li Auto have record Sept mth for sales 

+ HK-Zhuhai-Macao bridge see record high daily vehicle passage of >20,000 inbound and outbound vehicles 

+ Foxconn Q3 revenue surged 20% QoQ to US$57.3bn on strong demand for AI servers 

*EUROPE*

-EU to impose tariffs on imports of Chinese EVs of up to 45%, 10 countries voted for the tariffs, 5 against, 12 abstentions 

-EU manufacturing activity declined at its fastest pace this yr to 45.0 in Sept 

+ Eurozone inflation fell to its lowest level in 3.5 yrs in Sept to 1.8% 

+ Eurozone producer prices up by 0.6% and 0.4% in EU in Aug

-Eurozone business activity contracted in Sept, HCOB’s composite PMI dropped to 49.6 vs 51 in Aug 

-EU economy needs to become more competitive with US and China or it “could die”: Marcon 

-EU automakers facing worst months since Covid-19; car sales have fallen by 200,000 vehicles in first 8 mths YoY, set to get worse 

-Germany recorded its most pronounced worsening of factory conditions for 12 mths 

-Germany’s services sector slowed for 4th consecutive mth in Sept, Services PMI fell to 50.6 hitting 6 mths low 

+ VW CEO: Chinese automakers should be allowed to avert tariffs by investing in EU 

-UK shop prices fell at the fastest pace in >3 yrs in Sept, annual shop price deflation dropped to 0.6% in the 12 mths to Sept 

-France planned tax increases will affect some 300 companies with turnover >€1bn, will be temporary and last for 1-2 yrs 

-Russia’s state debt expected to grow marginally and reach 18% of GDP: finance ministry 

+ Russian’s energy revenues may reach record levels this year: FIEF 

*ASIA*

-Japan not ready for rate hike after meeting BOJ governor: PM Ishiba 

-Toyota to delay EV production in US to 2026 

-Toyota officially ending its Olympics sponsorship following the Paris Games, cited event has become “increasingly political”

-India’s manufacturing industry cooled to 8-mth low to 56.5 in Sept 

-India services PMI compiled by S&P Global fell to 57.7 in Sept hits 10-mth low

+ UAE gaming authority granted Wynn Resorts its first commercial gambling license

+ Indonesia feasibility study on extension of Jakarta-Bandung HSR to Surabaya to be completed this yr 

+ Vietnam Q3 GDP expanded by 7.4% YoY, hits 2-yr high, inflation rate at 14-mth low of 2.63% 

+ Philippines annual inflation rate slowed to 1.9% in Sept, lowest since May 2020 

+ Malaysia’s budget 2025 will prioritize the economic sector by continuing structural reform agenda: FM 

+ Malaysia aims to be regional digital creative hub by yr 2030: Minister 

+ Malaysia’s BRICS entry will boost Johor’s investment, trade potential through JS-SEZ: Onn Hafiz 

+ Sg retail sales up 0.6% in Aug, of the 14 industries, 9 report YoY falls

-Sg hotel’s room revenue dipped in Aug; tourist arrivals down 3.9%, average room rate up 1.7% 

+ Temasek in talks for US$1bn-plus stake in India’s biggest snack maker 


Contribution by Derek@valueinvestments chat group. Thank you.

Please consider following us on telegram for the latest update on Lone Wolf investor by clicking on the link below. No form filling, no payment required, no collection of data, no data mining, no hard selling, no obligation. 

https://t.me/joinchat/oCgkD3sQFRMzMWM1



Disclaimers 

All investments is highly speculative in nature and involves substantial risk of loss. We encourage our reader to invest very carefully. We also encourage reader to get personal advice from your professional investment advisor and to make independent investigations before acting on information that we publish. Much of our information is derived directly from information published by companies or submitted to governmental agencies on which we believe are reliable but are without our independent verification. Therefore, we cannot assure you that the information is accurate or complete. We do not in any way whatsoever warrant or guarantee the success of any action you take in reliance on our statements. All information provided are for education only. Buyer beware,do you own due diligence.


Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Wolf Money(Portfolio update for end April 2024)part 1

-
Image
  (Image credit The Star Media) (Swamp of people going into Shenzhen) Bye Singapore! Hi Malaysia, 2026 This write-up was inspired by a video posted on YouTube. The video talks about Hong Kong hollowing out by Shenzhen. The recent phenomenon of Hong Kongers going to Shenzhen to play, eat and stay is gathering pace with close to 2 millions making the crossing to Shenzhen during the recent Easter Holiday. That is close to 30% of the current HK population leaving for Shenzhen. With deflation taking root in China, things are much cheaper in Shenzhen. The poor economy in HK is another push factor with Hong Kongers trading down their consumption. One traveller from HK mentions his spending in the mainland only cost him 1/3 of the usual price he paid in Hong Kong. Hong Kongers are shopping at Sam’s Club in Shenzhen buying everything from groceries to electronics. The commentator interviewed restaurants and shop owners in HK, most experienced a 30% drop in sales during the holiday.  *T...
Read more

Wolf Money(The death of the Singapore Stock Market-My view on the final offer for Great Eastern Holdings)

-
Image
(The Death of the Singapore Stock Market) Great Eastern Holdings(extract from end of month portfolio update) Today we are here to attend the funeral of the Singapore stock market. Besides the low valuation suffered by our market participants, investors of our market have to navigate the complexity of low ball offers from majority shareholders. One would expect a local banking giant to lead as a beacon for good corporate governance. Unfortunately, they have decided to turn a blind eye and join the dark side of the forces, blatantly ignoring the IFA report to pay a fair price for GEH. I could have walked away quietly by accepting the offer for a gain in excess of 40% in 3 months, but I can’t walk away without my conscience pushing me to express my thoughts on this whole takeover saga. I started the journey by supporting Chin Woo. His leadership is top-notch. I think most minority shareholders will agreed, without Chin Woo’s effort, the minority would have been in a much inferior position...
Read more

Wolf Money(My views on Great Eastern offer)

-
Image
   (Image credit: NLB archive: Singapore Press Holdings; An old article on OCBC previous takeover of GEH in 2006. Is the end game near for the longest takeover exercise in Singapore corporate history that stretches across two decades?) Great Eastern Holdings(extract from end May portfolio update) First of all before I go further, the views shared are mine, alone. It doesn’t reflect anybody views and it is also not to undermine the good work of the independent financial advisors which are been tasked to assess the fairness of this voluntary unconditional general offer by OCBC. Kindly do take my commentary with a pinch of salt given my vested interest in GEH. My view shouldn’t be taken as cardinal truth on what you should do with your GEH shares. Kindly do your own due diligence and seek professional advice. I praise and thank OCBC for starting the ball rolling with this privatisation offer. I believe the bank is capable of doing more for Great Eastern’s minorities. The offer of...
Read more