Wolf Money(world market review 18-25 Nov 2024)

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(Victory Monument@Bangkok)


Market Summary 18-24 Nov 2024

*USA*

-US could impose nearly 40% tariffs on imports from China early 2025: Reuters poll of economists 

+ Fed to lower rates in Dec but slow pace in 2025 on inflation risks: Reuters poll

+ US consumer sentiment ticked up 4th straight mth in Nov at 71.8, highest since Apr, vs 70.5 in Oct 

+ US Composite PMI Output Index increased to 55.3 in Oct, highest level since Apr 2022 vs 54.1 in Oct 

+ US jobless claims fell by 6000 to 213,000 to 7-mth low 

+ US finalises US$1.5bn chips award for GlobalFoundries to expand production 

-Fed survey finds financial professionals had moved on from rising prices n begun worrying about rising US debt, trade wars 

+ Trump picked hedge fund manager Scott Bassent as Treasury Secretary 

-US Congressional committee advises revoking China’s Permanent Normal Trade Relations (PNTR)

-Biden planning to write off billions in Ukrainian debt 

-US probe JPMorgan’s link with Iranian oil trader’s hedge fund: Bloomberg 

-Goldman funds to take US$900m hit on Northvolt: FT

-Google must sell Chrome to end search monopoly: US regulators 

-Apple attempting to get iPhone unbanned in Indonesia by proposing to invest up to another US$100m over next 2 yrs 

 + Elon Musk’s xAI told investors it managed to raise US$5bn in latest funding round 

-Ford to cut 3000 jobs in Germany, 800 in UK 

+ Amazon to invest another US$4bn in Anthropic, OpenAI’s biggest rival 

+ Amazon invites Chinese sellers to new bargain market place Hauk to take on Temu and Shein 

-US banned food, metals and other imports from about 30 more Chinese companies over alleged forced labour involving Uyghurs 

+ Nvidia’s Q3 revenue sky rocked 95% to US$35.1bn

*SOUTH AMERICA*

+ Brazil signed agreement with China’s Starlink competitor SpaceSail aimed at bringing in Chinese satellite to Brazil   

+ Peru’s US$3.5bn Chancay mega-port will initially be able to handle 1m containers a yr, cut logistics costs between China n Peru by at least 20% 

*CHINA*

+ China to roll out new round of reform and opening-up of the capital market, to create better environment for global investors 

+ China unveiled 9-pt plan to aid exporter sector with policies to cope with external trade barriers  

+ China to plan car trade-in follow-up policy in 2025 in advance to stabilise market expectations 

-China expected to suffer from a 3.4% deflationary pressure if US revokes PNTR, previously known as most favoured nation status 

+ China issued US$2bn sovereign bonds in Saudi Arabia, first sovereign bond issued and traded in ME

+ China major cities including SH, SZ and BJ further relaxed their real estate policies; to reduce taxes for larger houses transactions  

-China trims US treasury holdings for 3rd mth to US$722bn in Sept, drop of US$2.6bn from a mth earlier 

-China’s regulator handled 658 cases related to financial frauds of listed companies with fines totalling ¥11bn in first 10 mths 

+ Chinese cargo airlines are gearing up for more imports from Latin America and Caribbean countries

+ China’s annual parcel volume hits new record high of 150bn yer-to-date, surpassing total volume last yr    

+ China overtakes Germany in industrial use of robots: report 

+ China-Russia east-route natural gas pipeline construction has been completed, to shore up energy supply in east China 

-China’s urban youth jobless rate remained above 17% for 4th consecutive mth 

+ China discovered a massive new goldfield containing reserves worth estimated US$82bn in Hunan 

+ China expands Visa-Free travel to 9 countries including Japan 

+ China’s passenger car sales rise 11.3% in Oct 

+ BYD becomes the first automaker in the world to deliver 10 million NEVs

+ China’s Pony AI seeks up to US$4.55bn valuation in upsized US IPO 

+ HK-SZ outline blueprint for science tech zone 

*EUROPE*

+ EU-China close to agreement over EV imports tariffs: leading MEP 

-Eurozone PMI, compiled by S&P Global, sank to a 10-month low of 48.1 in Nov

-Euro weakens to 2-year low after PMI data

+ Eurozone current account surplus widened in Sept to €37bn from €35.43bn previous mth 

+ Eurozone negotiated wage growth surged 5.42% in Q3, highest increase since Q1 1993

-Germany’s business bankruptcies soared by 22.9% YoY in Oct 

-German economy likely to stagnate in last qtr as labour market continues to soften n possible new trade tariffs 

-VW plant closures, layoffs needed to fix carmaker’s problems: brand boss 

-VW labour representatives vote for strike from early Dec 

-Russia will launch retaliatory measures mirror West’s expropriation of country’s sovereign assets: FM 

-Russian launched an intercontinental missile in an attack on Ukraine for the first time in war 

*ASIA*

+ BOJ to hike rates in Dec as yen weakens and Trump returns: Reuters poll 

+ Japanese govt approved US$140bn stimulus bundle includes energy n fuel subsidies, cash handouts for low-income households 

-Indian billionaire Adani charged in US for alleged bribery, fraud

+ India overtakes China as the top source for int’l students in the US for the first time in 15 yrs 

-Samsung ordered to pay US$118m for infringing Netlist patents 

+ Saudi Aramco unit in talks to invest US$1bn in US software maker Mavenir: sources 

*SEA*

-Indonesia govt expects Apple to increase its proposed US$100m investment into the country 

-Thailand NPLs reached 1.2 trillion baht in Q3, 14% YoY increase, bad debts of SMEs rose 20%, households NPLs rose 3.4%  

+ Thailand’s GDP grew by 3% in Q3 exceeding 2.6% forecast  

-Malaysia RM fell 5.8% against USD in Oct, biggest monthly drop in abt 8-yr, inflation at 1.9%

+ Anwar’s Brazil visit secured RM6.8bn export potential 

+ Johor’s Forest City SFZ is positioning itself as a distinct alternative to Sg, target a different market segment, with details in early 2025: Minister  

+ AirAsia plots low-cost Dubai-like hub but in a low-cost format in BKK, KL

+ Sg raises 2024 growth forecast to around 3.5% from previous range 2-3% after 3rd qtr growth accelerated to 5.4%  

-Sg narrows 2024 NODX growth forecast to 1-3% on weak H2 recovery  

+ Sg hotels see occupancy rate of over 80% in Sept despite stronger Sgd, higher room prices 

-WeWork giving up space in 2 prime locations in Sg

+ Morgan Stanley opens new SEA HQ in Singapore 


Contribution by Derek@valueinvestments chat group. Thank you.

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All investments is highly speculative in nature and involves substantial risk of loss. We encourage our reader to invest very carefully. We also encourage reader to get personal advice from your professional investment advisor and to make independent investigations before acting on information that we publish. Much of our information is derived directly from information published by companies or submitted to governmental agencies on which we believe are reliable but are without our independent verification. Therefore, we cannot assure you that the information is accurate or complete. We do not in any way whatsoever warrant or guarantee the success of any action you take in reliance on our statements. All information provided are for education only. Buyer beware,do you own due diligence.

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