Wolf Money(world market review 16-22 Dec 2024)
Market Summary 16-22 Dec 2024
*USA*
+ Fed cuts rates by another 25bps to 4.25%-4.5%, hints fewer cuts next year due to stubbornly high inflation
+ US PCE price index showed an increase of 0.1% from Oct and a 2.4% annual rate, both below expectations
+ US Core PCE increased 0.1% MoM, the least in 6 mths, up 2.8% YoY, both 0.1% pt below forecast
+ US personal income rose by 0.3% MoM, smallest increase in 3 mths
+ US personal spending rose by 0.4% MoM to annualized rate of US$20.2 trillion in Nov
± Fed not allowed to own Bitcoin, not seeking law change: Powell
+ Biden signed a stopgap funding bill into law aimed at keeping US federal govt until Mar and preventing an impending shutdown
+ Fed revised GDP growth upward for 2024 (2.5% vs to 2%) and 2025 (2.1% vs 2%)
+ US GDP growth revised up to 3.1% in Q3, higher than 2.8% in 2nd estimate and above 3% in Q2, biggest growth rate this year
-US year-ahead inflation expectations compiled by Uni of Michigan revised down to 2.8% in Dec from earlier estimate of 2.9%
+ US initial jobless claims fell 22,000 from previous wk to 220,000, much more than market expectations
-US corporate profits fell by 0.4% from previous period to US$3.1285 trillion in Q3
-US recorded a record-high current account deficit of US$310.9bn in Q3, widening from revised US$270bn in previous qtr
-Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index plunged to -16.4 in Dec, lowest level since Apr 2023, from -5.5 in Nov
-US 10-year treasury yield fell to below 4.52% from 7-mth high
+ US net foreign acquisitions of LT and ST US securities, and banking flows was a net TIC inflow of US$203.6bn in Oct
+ US building permits soared by 6.1% to seasonally adjusted annualised rate of 1.505m in Nov, vs 0.4% decline in previous qtr
+ US existing home sales rose by 4.8% to seasonally adjusted annualised rate of 4.15m in Nov to 8-mth high
-US goods trade deficit with EU stood at €156bn in 2023: Eurostat data
-US and some other Western firms’ request for US to impose staggering 920% duty on Chinese graphite
-US plans to blacklist company that ordered TSMC chip found in Huawei processor
+ Google’s AI powered Tensor Processing Unit semiconductor could affect Nvidia popularity and dominance: Omdia
+ US awards over US$6bn to Samsung, TI under CHIPS Incentives Program to boost chip production
-US finalised up to US$4.75bn grant to Samsung to make advanced semiconductors, far short of the US$6.4bn announced in Apr
-Starbucks workers expand strike to 4 more US cities including NY
*SOUTH AMERICA*
+ Argentina posted trade surplus of US$1.234bn in Nov, sharp turnaround from US$559m deficit a yr ago
+ Argentina’s consumer confidence indicator rose to 46 in Dec vs 45.02 in Nov, highest level since Nov 2023
+ Argentina’s jobless rate fell to 6.9% in Q3, marking its lowest level since Q4 2023, employment rate increased to 45% from 44.8%
*CHINA*
-China reduced holdings of US Treasury bonds to US$760.1bn in Oct, marked a 4th consecutive mth decreased
+ Chinese yuan moved 1 position up to the 4th most active currency for global payments by value in Nov, with a share of 4.98%: SWITCH
+ Xi urged further deepening rural reform and making solid advances toward the goal of building up strength in agriculture
-China introduces new rule to tighten scrutiny on foreign accounting firms’ domestic operations, seek to rein in failures n fraud
-China’s 10-year govt bond yield fell to around 1.72%, near historic lows
+ PBoC maintained its key lending rates steady for 2nd straight mth at Dec fixing, 1-year LPR at 3.1%, 5 yrs at 3.6%
+ China updated legislation aimed to modernize and strengthen legal framework to combat money laundering
+ China’s top economic planner unveiled comprehensive service platform to bolster private economy
+ Shanghai public companies listed in A-share market reported 184% rise in mid-year dividend payouts so far
+ Chinese private rocket firm Galactic Energy completed 4th launch from sea
+ China launched its first hydrogen-powered container ship, capable of carrying 64 standard containers, capable of sailing 380 kms
+ Xinjiang’s foreign trade in Jan-Nov hits ¥403.11bn (US$55.23bn), up 26% YoY, the fastest growth rate nationwide
+ China’s aviation services market expected to be world’s largest by 2032, to surpass North America and Europe: Airbus report
+ Chinese home-made C919 aircraft has carried >1m passenger trips since launched in May 2023
+ HK’s current account surplus widened to HKD120.8bn in Q3 vs HKD111.4bn previous year
+ HK lowered its base rate by 25bps to 4.75% in Dec
+ Foxconn is considering a bid to acquire Nissan Motor to expand its nascent EV business: WSJ
*EUROPE*
-EU should reduce its trade gap by boosting purchases of US oil and gas, or risks being hit with tariffs: Trump
-EU passenger car registrations dropped by 1.6% YoY to 869,816 units in Nov vs 1.1% rise in Oct
+ EU approved €1.3bn funding to support Singapore-based Silicon Box to develop the “first-of-a-kind” chip facility in Novara, Italy
+ Eurozone’s int’l trade surplus in goods landed at €6.8bn in Oct
+ German producer prices rose by 0.1% YoY in Nov, rebounding from 1.1% in Oct, up for the first time in 17 mths
+ Volkswagen planned to axe 35,000 jobs in Germany by 2030 after reaching an agreement with unions
-BoE left benchmark bank rate steady at 4.75% in Dec meeting
-UK annual inflation rate edged up for 2nd mth to 2.6% in Nov from 2.3% in Oct, highest inflation rate in 8 mths
-UK factory new orders decreased to -40 in Dec, lowest since Nov 2020
-UK car production fell 30% YoY to 64,216 units in Nov, lowest monthly output since 1980
-France producer prices domestic market up 3.2% MoM in Nov, highest since Mar 2022
-Russia held its key interest rate unchanged at record high of 21% in Dec meeting
-Gazprom’s stock plummeted to its lowest in nearly 16 years after Kiev announced it will not extend gas transit deal
+ Turkish carrier Pegasus Airlines ordered up to 200 Boeing 737-10 jets
*ASIA* / *OCENIA*
+ BoJ maintained its key short-term interest rate at around 0.25% during its final meeting this yr, at highest level since 2008
-Japan annual inflation climbed to 2.9% in Nov vs 2.3% in Oct, highest reading since Oct 2023
-Japan’s core consumer price index rose by 2.7% YoY in Nov, highest in 3 mths
+ Japan exports rose by 3.8% YoY to JPY9,152.38bn in Nov at 3-mth high
-Japan food prices increased 4.8% YoY in Nov, following a 3.5% rise in prior mth, highest food inflation since Mar
+ Honda and Nissan’s potential merger talks set to begin as early as Dec 23: Nikkei Aisa
-NZ’s GDP contracted 1% QoQ in Q3 or -1.5% on annual basis, brining the country back to recession
*ASEAN*
-Indonesia maintained its benchmark interest rate at 6% during its Dec meeting
+ Thailand 10-year govt bond yield decreased to 32-mtn low of 2.23%
+ Thailand kept is key interest rate at 2.25% during its final meeting of 2024
+ Ho Chi Minh City launches its first metro line after a 6-year delay, plans to fast rack 7 more by 2035
+ Malaysia annual inflation rate edged down to 1.8% in Nov from 1.9% in Oct, vs market forecasts of 2.1%
-Malaysia food prices increase by 2.6% YoY in Nov, the most in a year
+ Malaysia exports grew by 4.1% YoY to MYR126.6bn in Nov vs market forecasts of 1.3%, fastest pace in 3 mths
+ Malaysia’s trade surplus widened to MYR15.3bn in Nov, largest trade surplus since Sept 2023
+ Malaysia’s Proton launched its first locally made EV backed by Geely
+ Sg main stock index is on track to have its best annual performance since 2017
+ Sg SCCCI called for budget 2025 to help SEMs ease business costs, improve workforce productivity, build green capabilities
Contribution by Derek@valueinvestments chat group. Thank you
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