Wolf Money(world market review 25 Nov-1 Dec 2025)

 

Market Summary 25 Nov-01 Dec 2024

*USA*

+ US PCE prices rose by 2.3% YoY in Oct, up from a 3-year low of 2.1% in Sept

+ US consumer spending up 0.4% in Oct, core PCE rises 0.3%, up 2.8% on YoY basis, weekly jobless claims fall 2000 to 213,000

-US new orders for key-manufactured capital goods fell 0.2% in Oct 

+ US corporate profits unchanged MoM at US$3.141 trillion in Q3, after 3.5% rise in Q2 

+ US personal income rose by 0.6% MoM to US$24.96 trillion in Oct, biggest rise in 7th mths 

+ Black Friday data shows US shoppers spent US$10.8bn online, up 10% YoY: Adobe Analytics 

+ US most brokerages retain expectations of 25-bps rate cut from US Fed in Dec 

+ S&P 500 hovers at records following over 25% year -to-date gain, P/E ratio at over 3-year highs 

+ US 10-year Treasury note dropped to 4.2%, extending decline for 2nd consecutive week 

-Trump’s proposed tariff hikes would boost inflation by nearly 1%: Goldman 

-Trump’s tariffs could cost carmakers up to 17% of combined core profits: S&P

-US approved US$385m arms sales to Taiwan 

-US congressional committee called for crackdown on HK’s financial sector, accusing for money laundering, sanctions evasion 

-Intel’s US$7.86bn govt subsidy deal restricts the company’s ability to sell its manufacturing unit 

+ US pending home sales index, based on signed contracts, rose 2% in Oct to 77.4, highest since March 

+ US new vehicles sales projected to rise 6.7% in Nov YoY, driven by higher discounts  

+ US equity funds attract inflows for 4th successive week, investors bought US$12.78bn worth of US equity funds 

+ JPMorgan sees Latin American companies’ earnings rebounding 16% in 2025

-US regulator opened broad antitrust investigation into Microsoft, including software licensing, cloud computing businesses  

-Musk called for abolishing federal regulatory agency charged with protecting consumers in financial sector 

- Musk asked US court to block OpenAI’s for-profit conversion 

*SOUTH AMERICA / OTHERS*

-Mexico warned Trump tariffs would kill 400,000 US jobs, threatens retaliation 

+ Brazil unemployment rate fell to 6.2% in 3 mths to Oct, lowest level on record 

+ Coffee prices hit 47-year high as Brazil struggles to recover fully from this year’s drought 

-G7 finalising US$50bn loan to Ukraine

*CHINA*

+ China’s official NBS Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3 in Nov from 50.1 in Oct, highest reading since Apr 

+ China’s NBS Composite PMI Output Index remained at 50.8 in Nov, at its highest level since May 

+ PBOC injected US$111bn of liquidity in Nov as bond supply surged, to help ease funding pressure in the market  

-China could devalue Yuan to spite Trump: JPMorgan 

+ China’s major industrial enterprises’ profit exceeded ¥5.86 trillion (US$814bn) in Jan-Oct period 

+ China released a development action plan to promote high-quality development of digital finance sector 

+ China-EU EV price commitment talks ongoing, show progress: MOFCOM 

-China to take ‘necessary measure’ if US imposed new export curbs targeting 200 Chinese chip firms: MOFCOM

+ China will extend tariff exemptions for import of some US products until Feb 2025

+ China triples uranium imports from Russia, poised to become largest importer of Russian nuclear fuel this yr 

+ China’s home prices set to stabilise by 2026 after slower falls: Reuter poll 

+ China’s logistic volume expected to reach ¥360 trillion in 2024

+ China govt issued action plan to cut logistics costs to boost economic efficiency

+ China 2nd Int’l Supply Chain Expo wrapped up with deals worth >US$21bn signed over 210 trade deals and tentative agreements  

+ Wanda plans to establish a fund of up to ¥50bn (US$12.44bn) to pay taxes and debt 

+ China will give all least developed countries with diplomatic relations zero-tariff treatment 

+ Huawei launched Mate 70, Mate 70 Pro and Mate 70 Pro+ n foldable Mate X6, run on latest self-developed HarmonyOS NEXT

-BYD asked dozens of suppliers for price cuts: Yicai reports 

+ DIDI Global posted 2nd straight quarterly net profit of ¥927m for Sept qtr while prepared for HK IPO 

+ Baidu’s Apollo autonomous vehicles granted licence to test in HK 

+ HK to offer crypto tax exemption for hedge funds and family offices 

+ HK home prices rose in Oct, halting a 5-mth decline, private home prices rose 0.6% MoM, prices down 6.8% this yr 

-HK Oct retail sales fell 2.9% YoY 

*EUROPE*

+ EU-China are close to concluding a pact to eliminate EU tariffs on Chinese EV imports: EU trade chief 

+ Euro Area annual inflation rate accelerated for 2nd mth to 2.3% in Nov from 2% in Oct 

-German GFK consumer climate indicator fell to -23.3 pts heading into Dec 2024, lowest since May 

+ German govt plans about €2bn in new chip subsidies, 2 mths after Intel shelved plans to build a €30bn chip factory 

-German MNC Bosch to trim global workforce by 5000 next several yrs due to weak EV demand 

-Volkswagen brushed off union proposals for cost savings, just days ahead of planned walkouts to avoid plant closures 

-Volkswagen India unit faces US$1.4bn tax evasion notice 

+ Mercedes-Benz to use China’s Momenta software in 4 models, to help it win back market share 

+ UK net mortgage approvals from house purchases up by 2200 to 68,303 in Oct, highest level since Aug 2022 

-UK expanded sanction on Russia crude oil shipments, intended to substantially reduce its energy revenues  

-UK car production fell 15.3% YoY to 77,484 units in Oct, marking 8th consecutive mth of decline 

-France unemployment rose by 53.6 thousand to 2.892m people in Oct, up the most since 2020 

-Russian central bank halts USD purchases 

-Russia industrial output advanced by 4.8% YoY in Oct hitting 5-mth high 

*ASIA*

+ Asia likely to benefit from cheaper Canadian, Mexican oil if Trump imposed tariffs 

+ Japan’s industrial production up 3% MoM in Oct vs market consensus of 3.9% 

+ Tokyo’s core CPI rose 2.2% YoY in Nov, beating forecasts 2.1%; yen jumped to 6-week high against dollar on rates hike bets  

-Toyota Motor’s global output dropped for a 9th consecutive mth in Oct

+ India’s GDP expanded 5.4% in its 2nd fiscal qtr ending Sept, close to 2-yr low  

+ India plans to expand EV incentives to automakers using existing plants, policy expected to be finalised by Mar 2025 

+ India set to launch its own bullet trains with speeds of up to 280km/hr with first route expected by 2026

-India’s competition watchdog ordered a probe into Google’s restrictive policies for real-money games on its platform 

-South Korea exports growth at 1.4% in Nov, weakest in 14-mth, imports fell 2.4% to 5-mth low, trade surplus at US$5.61bn  

+ South Korea cuts base rate by 25bps to 3% at Nov meeting, 2nd straight mth of rate reductions 

+ Australia home prices will rise steadily over next 2 yrs, driven by tight supply and lower interest rates: Reuters poll 

*ASEAN*

-SEA nations hit with US imports duties of up to 271% on solar cells and module  

+ Indonesia in talks with US, Russia for nuclear power technology 

+ Indonesia tycoon Sugianto Kusuma eyes theme park, F1 race in US$16bn project in North Jakarta 

+ Jakarta’s next governor Pramono Anung vowed swift action on costal sinking  

+ Thailand investigation clears BYD over discounts: sources 

+ Vietnam approved US$67bn high-speed railway project connecting Hanoi, Ho Chi Minh city 

+ Bank Negara called for fair insurance pricing as medical costs soared 

+ Malaysia hosted economic conference between Russia and ASEAN this week, gathered 350 participants from 24 countries 

+ Sg factory output rose 1.2% YoY in Oct, lower than forecast of 2.6% 

-Sg households’ debt up 3.6% YoY in Q3 with 75% of household debt comprised housing loans back by property collateral 

-Sg producer prices drop 5.3% YoY in Oct, marking 3rd consecutive mth of decline  

+ Sg bank loans increased to S$813.1bn in Oct from 808.8bn in Sept, largest figure since Dec 2022 

+ Sg nominal incomes for both lower-income n median-income workers up by 7.1% to S$3026 to S$5500 respectively 

-Sg hotels’ ARR dropped to S$275.19 in Oct, down 12.9% fs S$315.79 in Sept, however still up 1.7% YoY

+ BYD sold 4560 vehicles in Sg first 10 mths, edge closer to market leader Toyota’s 5819 units, vs Tesla’s 1866 

Contribution by Derek@valueinvestments chat group. Thank you.

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