Wolf Money(world market review 19-25 Jan 2025)

-

(Image credit: Traderlion.com)
 

Market Summary 19-25 Jan 2025

*USA*

± Fed expected to keep interest rates on hold in next week’s meeting 

± US Composite PMI Output Index declined to 52.4 in Jan, lowest level since Apr, vs 55.4 in Dec; amid rising price pressures  

-US sales of previously owned home slipped to their weakest level in nearly 30 years in 2024 to 4.06m on annual basis    

+ US existing-home sales rose for the 3rd mth in Dec, contract increased 2.2% to annualised rate of 4.24m, the most since Feb 

-US freezes new funding for nearly all aid programs worldwide 

+ Trump said he would demand that interest rates drop immediately, and other countries should follow suit 

+ Trump says he could reach trade deal with China, citing his conversation with Xi was friendly 

-Trump said “thinking in terms” of imposing 25% tariffs on goods coming from Mexico and Canada 

+ Trump announced private sector investment of up to US$500bn to fund AI infrastructure 

-US share of active credit card holders just making minimum payments rose to 10.75% in Q3 2024, highest ever since 2012, delinquencies also rise

-Boeing said expects significant impacts in its Q4 results with a diluted loss per share of US$5.46   

-US halts programs for migrants, including Ukrainians

*CHINA*

+ China’s economy grew by 5% YoY to ¥134.9 trillion (US$18.77 trillion) in 2024, topping ¥130 trillion for the first time 

+ China plans to channel hundreds of billions of yuan of investment from state-owned insurers into shares to support markets 

+ China’s new rules to add ¥1 trillion into market: JPMorgan 

+ PBoC kept its benchmark interest rates unchanged, 1-year LPR and 5-year LPR remained at 3.1% and 3.6% respectively 

-China’s govt failed to meet its spending target last yr on effects of housing slump 

+ China’s 2024 fiscal revenue grew 1.3% YoY vs 6.4% rise in 2023; non-tax income jumps 

+ China’s stimulus scheme for consumer goods trade-ins boosted 2024’s consumption growth by >1% pt: Minister 

+ Chinese yuan remains 4th most active payment currency in Dec, reaching 3.75% of global payments in Dec: SWIFT 

+ China could be more open to ByteDance selling some shares to US investors to improve relations: sources 

+ China’s total expenditure on R&D exceeded ¥3.6 trillion (US$494.69bn) in 2024, up 8.3% from 2023

+ China poised to expand AI infrastructure to keep pace with US Stargate project 

+ China major state insurers to allocate 30% of new premiums to A-shares annually 

+ China’s capital market regulator pledged greater openness for overseas investors accessing A-share market 

+ China aims for stable crude oil production above 200m tons in 2025: NEA 

-China extends anti-dumping duties on ortho-dichlorobenzene (ODCB) imports from Japan and India for 5 years

-China’s industry body CCCME has filed a lawsuit with EU court on behalf of Chinese EV enterprises regarding anti-subsidy probe  

+ Chinese travellers making 5.615bn domestic trips in 2024, up 724m from a year earlier, up 14.8% YoY 

-Shanghai issued more consumption vouchers after decline in retail sales for the 2nd time in 20 years in 2024

-China Eastern Airlines expects its net loss to narrow to up to ¥4.3bn for 2024 vs a loss of ¥8.2bn in 2023

-China Southern Airlines expects the net loss to narrow to between ¥1.25bn – ¥1.87bn last year vs a loss of ¥4.21bn in ¥2023

+ China Life Insurance expects its earnings to jump by >122% last year as income from investment surged 

+ China-Europe first express cargo ship completes maiden voyage in just 26 days 

+ China aims to achieve substantial progress in all-round rural revitalisation by 2027

*EUROPE*

+ Euro area’s private sector grew in Jan after 2 mths of contraction, S&P Global’s Composite PMI rose to 5 mths high of 50.2 

-ECB President Lagarde warns Europe faces existential economic threat due to changes in economic dynamics between US n EU  

+ EU could consider allowing UK to join Pan-Euro-Mediterranean Convention, tariff-free trade area 

+ EU bloc is considering subsidies to encourage EV purchases, tackle imports 

-Germany’s economy recovery remains uncertain, inflation rates continue to be high: Bundesbank 

-German economic sentiment index down to 10.3 in Jan from 15.7 in Dec: ZEW 

+ Germany’s services activity reaches 6-mth high in Jan to 50.1, vs Dec’s 48.0 

-UK’s severe factory downturn eased marginally in Jan, optimism among manufacturers sagged to its lowest level in 2 yrs 

+ UK might agree to join pan-European trade bloc: Business and Trade Secretary 

*ASIA*

+ BoJ raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 bps from 0.25% to 0.5%, highest in 17 years 

-Japan annual inflation at 3.6% in Dec vs Nov’s 2.9%

+ Japanese exports rose for a 3rd successive mth in Dec, rose 2.8% YoY 

+ Japan department store sales in 2024 top pre-pandemic levels of 2019 amid inbound tourism boom 

± Saudi Arabia is still evaluating potential membership of BRICS: economy minister 

-Indonesia govt soon to require exporters to keep 100% earnings onshore for a year

+ Malaysia’s sovereign credit at “A3” with “stable” outlook, medium-term growth prospects remain buoyant: Moody’s 

+ Malaysia-EU reopened free trade agreement talks 

+ MAS eases monetary policy for the first time in 4-year, lowers 2025 core inflation forecast to between 1% and 2%

± Sg 2024 inflation averages 2.4%, core inflation averaged 2.7% 

+ Sg construction demand to range between S$47bn-S$53bn in 2025, vs preliminary total for 2024 at S$44.2bn 

+ Sg Retailer Association calls for relaxed foreign worker quotas, levies in Budget 2025

+ Changi passenger traffic in 2024 nears pre-pandemic level; China reclaims top market status 


Contribution by Derek@valueinvestments chat group. Thank you

Please consider following us on telegram for the latest update on Lone Wolf investor by clicking on the link below. No form filling, no payment required, no collection of data, no data mining, no hard selling, no obligation. 

https://t.me/joinchat/oCgkD3sQFRMzMWM1



Disclaimers 

All investments is highly speculative in nature and involves substantial risk of loss. We encourage our reader to invest very carefully. We also encourage reader to get personal advice from your professional investment advisor and to make independent investigations before acting on information that we publish. Much of our information is derived directly from information published by companies or submitted to governmental agencies on which we believe are reliable but are without our independent verification. Therefore, we cannot assure you that the information is accurate or complete. We do not in any way whatsoever warrant or guarantee the success of any action you take in reliance on our statements. All information provided are for education only. Buyer beware,do you own due diligence.

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Wolf Money(Portfolio update for end April 2024)part 1

-
Image
  (Image credit The Star Media) (Swamp of people going into Shenzhen) Bye Singapore! Hi Malaysia, 2026 This write-up was inspired by a video posted on YouTube. The video talks about Hong Kong hollowing out by Shenzhen. The recent phenomenon of Hong Kongers going to Shenzhen to play, eat and stay is gathering pace with close to 2 millions making the crossing to Shenzhen during the recent Easter Holiday. That is close to 30% of the current HK population leaving for Shenzhen. With deflation taking root in China, things are much cheaper in Shenzhen. The poor economy in HK is another push factor with Hong Kongers trading down their consumption. One traveller from HK mentions his spending in the mainland only cost him 1/3 of the usual price he paid in Hong Kong. Hong Kongers are shopping at Sam’s Club in Shenzhen buying everything from groceries to electronics. The commentator interviewed restaurants and shop owners in HK, most experienced a 30% drop in sales during the holiday.  *T...
Read more

Wolf Money(Genting Singapore)

-
Image
  (Image credit: Genting Singapore) The below article is for educational purpose only. Kindly refrain from taking any action. It shouldn’t constitute as an investment advice. Please read the disclaimer . I took a small position in Genting Singapore after the share hits 52 weeks low today. There are a lot of negatives surrounding Genting Singapore.  1.) Casino license renewed for 2 years instead of usual 3 years due to unsatisfactory performance. 2.) Poor Q3 results because of falling tourists numbers into Singapore, primarily Chinese tourists, and the poor win rates. 3.) The huge capex needed for rejuvenation of the RWS Sentosa to a tune of $6.8b over the next 8 years. 4.) Competition from other casinos in the region.  I find the entry level attractive given the 5.3% dividend yield, valuations of Genting Singapore has fallen to its lowest level since listing with exception to sharp and short drop during covid to 50c. The stock is trading at less than 1.1x p/b which compar...
Read more

Wolf Money(The death of the Singapore Stock Market-My view on the final offer for Great Eastern Holdings)

-
Image
(The Death of the Singapore Stock Market) Great Eastern Holdings(extract from end of month portfolio update) Today we are here to attend the funeral of the Singapore stock market. Besides the low valuation suffered by our market participants, investors of our market have to navigate the complexity of low ball offers from majority shareholders. One would expect a local banking giant to lead as a beacon for good corporate governance. Unfortunately, they have decided to turn a blind eye and join the dark side of the forces, blatantly ignoring the IFA report to pay a fair price for GEH. I could have walked away quietly by accepting the offer for a gain in excess of 40% in 3 months, but I can’t walk away without my conscience pushing me to express my thoughts on this whole takeover saga. I started the journey by supporting Chin Woo. His leadership is top-notch. I think most minority shareholders will agreed, without Chin Woo’s effort, the minority would have been in a much inferior position...
Read more