Wolf Money(world market review 3-9 Feb 2025)
Market Summary 3-9 Feb 2025
*USA*
-US year-ahead inflation expectations up to over 1-year high to 4.3% in Feb, steepest since Nov 2023
+ US jobless rate dipped by 0.1% to 4% in Jan, lowest level since May, vs expectations of 4.1%
-Congress should make Trump's tax cuts permanent and avoid the largest tax hike in history: Scott Bessent
+ US imports of goods and services rose 3.5% to US$364.9bn in Dec, highest on record; rushed shipments ahead of a potential dockworkers’ strike and anticipated tariffs
+ US PMI Composite Output Index came in at 52.7 in Jan vs 52.4 in Dec vs estimates of 52.4
-US ISM Services PMI declined to 52.8 in Jan from downwardly revised 54 in Dec, vs forecasts of 54.3
-US economy added 143k jobs in Jan, well below upwardly revised 307k gain in Dec, vs forecasts of 170k
+ US private businesses added 183k workers to their payrolls in Jan vs forecasts of 150k
+ US average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose 0.5% or 17cents over a mth, to US$35.87 in Jan
-US unit labour costs in nonfarm business sector increased 3% in Q4 of 2024
-US consumer sentiment fell to 67.8 in Feb from 71.1 in Jan, fell for the 2nd straight mth to its lowest reading since Jul 2024
-US total consumer credit surged by US$40.85bn in Dec, far exceeding forecasted US$12.35bn, marking largest increase in history
-US goods and services trade deficit reached US$123bn in Dec, up by US$18.9bn in Nov
+ US nonfarm payrolls grew by 143,000 in Jan
-US initial jobless up by 11,000 to 219,000, recurring claims rose by 26,000 to 1,886,000
-US wholesale inventories fell by 0.5% MoM to US$899bn in Dec, after revised 0.1% down in Nov
+ US employers announced 49,795 job cuts in Jan, down 40% YoY, lowest Jan job cut total since 2022
+ US to pause the planned tariffs on Mexican imports for 1 mth
-US trade deficit widened to US$98.4bn in Dec vs forecasts of US$96.6bn, highest since record and Mar 2022
-Telsa China Jan deliveries down 11.5% at 63,238 YoY
-Meta informing its staff it plans to announce companywide job cuts on Monday
+ Uber to launch Waymo robotaxi rides in Austin
*GLOBE*
+ Gold prices surged to historic high, attributed to tariff exchanges between US and China
-Cryptocurrencies record largest ever single-day fall, total volume of liquidated trading positions exceeded US$2.24bn, more than 730,000 traders faced liquidations
+ World Food Prices FAO Food Index down 1.6% to 134.9 pts in Jan vs 127 in Dec, sugar prices fell 6.8% to lowest level since Oct 2022
*CHINA*
+ China to start trail for insurers to invest in gold
+ China’s foreign exchange reserves up slightly to US$3.209 trillion in Jan
+ PBoC conducted ¥697bn of 7-day reops at an interest rate of 1.5% to inject liquidity into the market
+ China’s securities regulator vowed greater capital support for strategic industries such as AI and aerospace
+ Chinese localities began to roll out massive investment projects across wide range of sectors, in major boost for economy
+ Shanghai’s technology insurance premiums exceed ¥5.06bn in 2024, providing risk coverage of >¥25 trillion
-China extended anti-dumping duties on EU-imported potato starch for 5 yrs
-China added 2 US firms – PVH Gp and Illumina Inc to unreliable entity list to safeguard national security: Ministry
-China to impose additional tariffs on certain imported goods from US starting Feb 10
-China launched a formal investigation into Google over suspected violation of Anit-Monopoly Law
-China announced export controls of items related to tungsten, tellurium, bismuth, molybdenum and indium
+ China sees 22.9% jump to 14.37m border crossing by foreign travellers during Spring Festival holiday
+ Chinese EV brands announced ambitious sales targets for 2025, with some eyeing >100% YoY growth
+ BYD delivered 296,446 vehicles in China in Jan, jump of 47.5% YoY
-ByteDance reportedly delaying negotiations for sale of TikTok, awaiting approval from Chinese govt
+ Tencent announced it has deployed DeepSeek’s RI model onto its Hyper Application Inventor application service
+ Alibaba cloud integrates DeepSeek AI models, enabling no-code AI deployment
*EUROPE*
+ ECB said its estimate for a neutral interest rate remains between 1.75% and 2.25%, broadly unchanged since end of 2023
-Eurozone retail trade contracted by 0.2% MoM in Dec, on annual basis, euro area rose by 1.9% and by 2% in EU
+ EU to exempt most firms from carbon border tax
+ German trade surplus reached €20.7bn in Dec, vs €19.2bn registered in Nov, surplus for full year 2024 at €241.2bn
+ BoE lower key interest rate by 25bps to 4.5%, the 3rd cut since start of its cutting cycle in Aug 2024
+ France foreign reserves assets rose to €292.59bn at end Jan, largest value since at least 1972
-France trade deficit at €3.9bn in Dec vs €6.3bn registered in Nov
+ Russian GDP grew 4.1% in 2024, with support from soaring amt of govt expenditure, investment in military
*ASIA*
+ Japan’s 10-year govt bond yield climbed to around 1.29% toward a fresh 14-year high
+ Japanese household spending increased by 2.7% YoY in Dec, first growth in 5 mths, strongest rise since Aug 2022
-Nissan, Honda said to scrap US$60bn merger talks
+ Toyota reports an operating profit decline of nearly 28% in Q3 fiscal yr; to set new wholly owned firm in Shanghai
+ SoftBank is set to invest US$40bn in OpenAi, set up joint business in Japan
+ India lowered its key repo rate by 25bps to 6.25% during its Feb meeting, first reduction since May 2020
+ South Korea recorded current account surplus of US$12.37bn in Dec, its 8th consecutive mth in black, largest surplus in 12 mths
+ Indonesia’s foreign exchange reserves rose to fresh record high of US$156.1bn in Jan
+ Thailand approved phase-2 of China-Thailand HSR, eventually to connect SEA country with China
+ Vietnam int’l tourist arrivals rose by 36.9% YoY reaching record high of 2.07m in Jan, following a 27.4% rise in Dec
+ Malaysia industrial production grew 4.6% YoY in Dec, strongest expansion since Jul 2024
+ Malaysia’s Proton begins construction of new EV plant, involving an investment of RM822m
+ Sg foreign exchange reserves rose to S$510.56bn in Jan to near 3-year high, mainly driven by rise in gold and foreign exchange reserves
+ Singapore Exchange’s half-year profit jumped 27% on strength in equity segments
+ Sg visitor arrivals rose 21% in 2024, highest since Covid-19 pandemic
Contribution by Derek@valueinvestments chat group. Thank you
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