Wolf Money(world market review 10-16 March 2025)
Market Summary 10-16 Mar 2025
*USA*
+ US inflation rate at 2.8% in Feb, vs 3% in Jan
-US year-ahead inflation expectations climbed further to 4.9% in Mar, steepest since Nov 2022
-US consumer sentiment index fell to 57.9 in Mar from 64.7 in Feb >2-year low, price expectations soar on tariffs
-US started enforcing 25% tariffs on imported steel and aluminium products
± US administration is focused on the “real economy” and long-term gains, “not concerned about a little bit of volatility over 3 weeks”: Bassent
-US stock market loses US$5 trillion in value in 3 wks
-US’s trade policy uncertainty will be resolved in early Apr, with a new batch of tariffs scheduled to come into force on Apr 2: Hassett
+ US initial jobless claims down 2000 to 220,000
+ US Senate passed a Republican spending, averting govt shutdown hours before midnight
+ Trump’s administration expected to move ahead with 2nd wave of mass firings and budget cuts across federal govt
± US federal judges in California n Maryland ordered Trump’s administration to reinstate thousands of fired workers
+ US household wealth eked out a fresh record high in Q4 to about US$169.4 trillion thanks to stock market rally
-US budget deficit at US$307bn in Feb, totally monthly receipts reached US$296.4bn, outlays at US$603.4bn
+ US job openings at 7.7m in Jan, little changed from Dec, remained at 4.6%
-US small business optimism index down 2.1 pts vs Jan at 100.7, uncertainty indicator rose to second-highest record of 104
+ US mortgage applications up 11.2% in wk ending March 7, average 30-yr fixed-rate contract interest rate down to 6.67% from 6.73%
-US about 40% chance of a recession in 2025: JPMorgan
-Trump threatens 200% wine tariff if EU does not remove whiskey tariff
+ Trump’s initiatives to negotiate a peace deal in Ukraine conflict could lead to Russia’s return to Western financial market: Bloomberg
± Trump’s family held talks to take a financial stake in crypto exchange Binance: WSJ
-US $3bn meat exports at risk as >50 poultry, 400 pork and 400 beef export facilities licenses to China set to expire end wk
+ US oil inventories increased by 4.2m barrels in wk ended March 7
-Boeing lost its way and also lost the trust of Americans ppl, needs strict oversight: Transportation Secretary
+ US eyes Arctic cooperation with Gazprom: Bloomberg
+ SpaceX Starship will travel to mars at end of 2026, carrying Tesla’s humanoid robot, Optimus, human landing could follow as early as 2029
+ Tesla plans lower-cost version Model Y costing at least 20% less to produce to defend China share
+ VP Vance expects general terms of an agreement to resolve ownership of TikTok deal by Apr 5
*OTHERS*
-Canada announced C$29.8bn in retaliatory tariffs on US, initiated dispute consultations at WTO over US tariffs
-Ontario confirmed 25% tax increase on electricity to US
+ Gold prices passed US$3000 an ounce for the first time
-IEA: Global oil supply could exceed demand by around 600,000 bpd this year, due to growth led by US n weaker than expected global demand
*CHINA*
+ China’s two-session have set economic growth target of around 5% for 2025, consumption, hight-tech growth n healthcare-related sector set to boost growth momentum
+ Chinese officials to hold press conference on Mon focusing on boosting consumption
-China FDI sank by 20.4% YoY to ¥98bn in first 2 mths, sharpest decline since 2009
± China Feb new bank loans fell to ¥1.01 trillion, below forecasts vs record level of ¥5.30 trillion in Jan
+ PBoC said will lower RRR and interest rates at appropriate time, based on domestic and int’l economic and financial conditions
+ China’s financial regulator urged lenders to boost financial support for consumption, to properly relax consumer credit quota and loan terms
+ China approaches the chief executives of top global companies for potential meeting with Xi later this mth: FT
+ China plans to expand its institutional opening-up trial program at its FTZ: Ministry
+ China further expanded policies that facilities and optimises cash-pooling services for MNCs
-Chinese authorities summoned Walmart for reportedly requiring some suppliers to slash prices significantly
+ China unveiled a new superconducting quantum computing prototype say operates a million times faster than Google’s top quantum processors
+ Baidu launches 2 new AI models, including a new reasoning-focused model that it said rivalled DeepSeek at only half the price
+ China completed world’s first AI+ robotic remote non-invasive throat surgery on a patient with a glottic tumour
+ Chinese researchers developed an ultra-high-capacity chip, facilitating on-chip optical data transmission
+ Chinese researches developed world’s first large-area 2D metal material, thickness just one two-hundred-thousandth of a human hair’s diameter
+ China EVs overall sales, including battery electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles, rose 49% YoY in Feb to 1.2m
+ China to crack down on stock market fake news as AI spurs misinformation
-China’s top office on HK issues rebuked of Li Ka-shing’s Panama Port deal with BlackRock, warning companies should be very careful about which “side they should stand on”
+ Chinese animated film Ne Zha 2 broke into top 5 at global box office with total US$2.07bn, set to release in 37 countries and regions across Europe
± CATL reported 15% growth in 2024 net profit, the slowest pace in 6 yrs
-HK 2nd hand property prices dropped to 21-week low
*EUROPE*
-EU responds to US tariffs with €26bn countermeasures starting next mth
+ Eurozone’s industrial production up by 0.8% MoM in Jan
+ EU plans to spend up to US$870 bn on its defence sector
+ Germany’s coalition govt-in-waiting n the Greens agreed to a deal for huge increase in state borrowing to boost spending: sources
+ German trade surplus at €16bn in Jan vs €20.7bn recorded in Dec
-Germany’s wholesale price rose 1.6% YoY in Feb, up from a 0.9% growth in Jan, strongest pace since Mar 2023
+ Volkswagen is open to producing weapons and military equipment: CEO
-UK economy contracted by 0.1% in Jan vs growth of 0.4% in Dec
-UK’s industrial production fell 0.9% MoM in Jan vs expectations of 0.1% drop
-UK >50% of PM Stamer’s cabinet urged his chancellor, Reeves to rethink spending cuts
-France 10-year govt bond at 3.6% hit 14-year high as investors braced for potential downgrade of nation’s sovereign rating
*ASIA*
+ Japanese GDP expanded by 0.6% in Q4, or 2.9% on YoY basis
-Japan’s trade deficit on balance of payments basis at ¥2,937.9 bn in Jan vs surplus of ¥62.3 bn in Dec, exports up 2.1%, imports up 17.7% annually
-Japan’s PPI rose 4% YoY in Feb
+ Toyota to launch total 9 fully-electric models in Europe in 2025 n 2026 to compete in large EU market
+ India’s inflation eased to 7-mth low in Feb at 3.61% YoY, bosting rate cut hopes
+ Indonesia plans to resume allowing forestry sector to sell carbon credits after a 3-year hiatus
+ Thailand aimed to slash electricity costs by more than 25% by next yr to emerge as hub for data centres and AI infrastructure: Thaksin Shinawatra
+ Vietnam is reviewing duties on US goods to boost imports of US LNG, agriculture and hig-tech products
+ Vietnam regulator proposed to recognise China’s aircraft design certifications as equivalent to US standard, facilitating the entry of jets from Comac
+ Malaysia’s manufacturing sector sales value up 3.5% to RM158.1bn in Jan
+ Malaysia’s wholesale, retail trade sector up 4.6% YoY to RM148.9bn in Jan
+ SORA, benchmark interest rate for home loans in Sg, fell to 2.08% this wk, lowest since end 2022; due to slower lending, foreign inflows into FD and resilient
-Sg marine fuel sales fell to lowest in 20 mths in Feb, down 7.1% MoM and sliding 8.1% YoY
+ Sg hosts 3-day Defense Technology Summit, US companies including Oracle, Boeing, Palantir are set to attend
Contribution by Derek@valueinvestments chat group. Thank you.
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