Wolf Money(world market review 17-23 March 2025)
Market Summary 17-23 Mar 2025
*USA*
-Fed holds interest rate steady between 4.25%-4.5%; in no rush for rate cuts, good time to slow balance sheet shrink: Powell
+ Fed latest economic projection expects 50bps rate cuts in 2025
-Trump administration is preparing to slap new import tariffs on Apr 2 that could worth “trillions” of dollars: sources
-Fed net loss in 2024 stood at US$77.5bn vs US$114.6bn in 2023
± US initial jobless claims rose by 2000 to 223,000
+ US existing home sales grow 4.2% in Feb at annual rate of 4.26m
-US current account deficit widened by US$228.2bn or 25.2% to US$1.13 trillion in 2024, at 3.9% of GDP, up from 3.3% in 2023
± US 10-year treasury yield fell to below 4.2% on lowest level since early Dec
+ US foreign investors of Treasuries maintained steady in Jan with total holdings at US$8.526 trillion, unchanged from Dec
-Trump signed executive order to dismantle Education Department while keeping some core functions
-FCC launched a new investigation of businesses linked with China and which still operate in US
+ US top trade chief plans to speak with Chinese counterpart next wk as tariff rift widens
+ Trump announced US Air Force is moving with plan to acquire world’s first 6-generationi fighter jet F-47; picked Boeing over Lockheed for fighter jet contract
+ Trump invoked emergency powers to boost domestic production of critical mineral used widely across the economy to offset China’s near-total control of the sector
+ Trump administration to open more Alaska acres for oil, gas drilling
-White House begins review of federal agency plans for second round of mass layoffs
-Trump administration will revoke temporary legal status from 532,000 migrants living in US
+ US SEC holds crypto force roundtable, focusing on how securities laws might apply to digital assets as Trump plans regulatory revamp
-US govt to hold hearing on proposed penalties to end China’s dominance of Shipping sector; trade agency seeking duties of up to US$1.5m for Chinse-built vessels entering US ports
± US seeks to reopen terms of Ukraine minerals deal: FT
-US Commerce dept bureaus ban DeepSeek on govt devices
+ J&J plans to raise US investments by 25% to >US$55bn over next 4 yrs, include 4 new manufacturing facilities
+ Telsa’s new Shanghai Megafactory starts exporting energy-storage batteries
-Nike shares tumbled to 5-year low after a warning of another quarter of sales decline
*OTHERS*
+ Canada aimed to remove internal trade barriers that can offset any US tariffs: PM
+ Argentina, IMF will discuss a new US$20bn loan during informal meeting next week
*CHINA*
+ China has prepared for external impacts that may exceed expectations and will open up more sectors to int’l investors: Li Qiang
± PBoC kept its benchmark interest rates unchanged, 1-year and 5-year LPR remained at 3.1% and 3.6% respectively
+ China asked banks to raise credit limits for consumer loans as part of efforts to boost consumption
+ China’s ODI grew 10.1% last year to US$162.8bn, with significant funding going to SEA and the B&R countries
+ China plans to increase its strategic reserves of key industrial metals, including cobalt, copper, nickel and lithium
-China imports of US big cars plunged 70% in first 2 mths; oil, gas down 40%, cotton down 80% and other commodities also collapsed
+ China’s e-commerce sector posted 5% growth in first 2 mths vs 4% growth of retail sales of consumer goods
-China is said to scrutinise Li Ka-shing’s Panama Port deal
-China record 3m restaurants went out of business in 2024 mainly due to price war, consumer skimp on dining out
+ China-Japan reached 20 key consensus points in high-level dialogue, to move forward talks on lifting seafood import ban
-China anti-dumping duties on Japanese imported resorcinol to be extended for 5 more yrs
+ China has 415,700 intelligent robotics enterprise with total registered capital of ¥6.44 trillion (US$888.7bn) as of end 2024
+ China announced 3 new wholly foreign-owned hospitals have been approved in the country to date
+ Huawei unveiled Pura X, first smartphone powered by advanced HarmonyOS 5
-Macau consumer prices fell 0.16% YoY in Feb, down for 1st time since 2021
*EUROPE*
-Eurozone consumer confidence indicator dropped to -14.5 in Mar, down 0.9 pts from Feb
-EU’s growth to be lower by 0.3% due to US 25% tariffs on imports from Europe: ECB Lagarde
-Eurozone consumer confidence indicator at -14.5 in Mar, down further from -13.6 in Feb
+ Germany upper house passes €500bn spending package, defence and infrastructure spending will increase significantly
+ German producer prices grew by 0.7% in Feb
± BoE leaves interest rate unchanged at 4.5%
+ Swiss National Bank lower interest rate by 25bps to 0.25%
+ Switzerland-China held first round of negotiations on upgrading FTA in Beijing
-Russia held key interest rate at record high of 21% in Mar decision
-Turkish stocks at biggest weekly losses since 2009 GFC
*ASIA*
± Japan annual inflation rate fell to 3.7% in Feb from 2-year high of 4% in Jan
± Japan’s core inflation hits 3% in Feb vs forecast 2.9%, keeps alive BOJ rate-hike bets
+ Japan, China, South Korea top diplomats met in Tokyo, seeking common ground on East Asian security and economic issues
+ Japan, China to hold 6-high-level economic dialogue in Tokyo
-India to let lapse a US$23bn program to incentivise domestic manufacturing, 4 yrs after it launched to woo firms away from China
+ Korea Air will soon finalise a US$32.7bn deal for new Boeing aircraft and GE Aerospace engines
+ UAE committed 10-year US$1.4 trillion investment framework in US: White House
-Indonesia allowed listed companies to buy back their stocks without shareholders’ approval, central bank intervention to calm markets after JKSE fell as much as 7.1% on Tue
+ Thailand posted trade surplus of US$2bn in Feb to 18-mth high, exports soared 14% YoY to 4-mth high vs 13.6% surge in Jan
+ Malaysia annual inflation rate dropped to 1.5% in Feb from 1.7% in previous 2 mths, at 13-mth low
+ Malaysia Airline parent to buy 18 Boeing 737 MAX 8, 12 MAX 10 jets, with option for 30 more depending on market conditions
+ Sg NODX grew 7.6% in Feb, reversing from Jan’s 2.1% contraction
-Sg retrenchment rose to 3680 in Q4 from 3050 in Q3
+ Temasek chairman Lim Boon Heng met with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng in Beijing
Contribution by Derek@valueinvestments chat group. Thank you.
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