Wolf Money(world market review 24-30 March 2025)
Market Summary 24-30 Mar 2025
*USA*
-US year-ahead inflation expectations rose for 4th straight mth to 5% in Mar, steepest since Oct 2022
± US PCE price index up by 0.3% MoM in Feb, same as previous 2 mths, core PCE rose 0.4% MoM in Feb, the most since Jan 2024
-US Michigan consumer sentiment revised lower to 57 in Mar from preliminary of 57.9, lowest since Nov 2022
+ US spending up 0.4% MoM in Feb, vs expectations of 0.5% gain, person income rose 0.8% MoM, the most in over a yr
+ US GDP Q4 growth rate at 2.4% from 3.1% in previous period, vs expected 2.3%
-US trade deficit stood at US$147.9bn in Feb, down by US$7.7bn from Jan’s figure
± US Treasury sells US$70bn in 5-year notes at 4.123% yield
-US tariffs on imports are set to take effect on Apr 2, including 25% on levy on autos not made in US
-US car tariffs will increase the cost of buying a new car by US$5000 to US$15,000: Goldman Sachs
-Trump announced 25% tariff on countries that buy Venezuelan oil and gas
-US tariffs impacts starting to appear in macro data: Fitch
-S&P projects a 25% likelihood of the US slipping into recession over next 12 mths
-US plans to cut 10,000 full-time federal health workforces, in addition to the 10,000 health employees who took voluntary buyouts
+ UK looking for ‘proper way’ to reconnect Russia to SWIFT: treasury secretary
+ US sold 1000 immigration gold cards at US$5m each, generating US$5bn in just 1 week: senior official Lutnick
+ Musk’s X.AI acquired social media platform X in an all-stock transaction, values xAI at US$80bn and X at US$33bn
± Must signalled that he plans to step down from his cost-cutting role DOGE end of May after reducing US deficit by US$1 trillion
-OpenAI expects to triple its revenue to US$1.27bn but expect cash flow negative until 2029 with projected revenue of >US$125bn
+ OpenAi set to secure US$40bn in funding with lead investor SoftBankat valuation US$300bn; could shrink by 50% if nonprofit doesn’t finalise its conversion to a for-profit firm by year-end
*CHINA*
+ Xi met with int’l business leaders, highlighted support for foreign investment, will expand opening up with focus on lowering market access thresholds
+ China discovered 2 potentially record-smashing 1000-tonne gold deposits, more discoveries could come with the use of advanced exploration technology, could be the largest in the world if proven
+ China’s 4 largest state banks plan total up to ¥530bn in private placements to boost core tier-1 capital
+ Chinese Vice premier held video call with US Trade Representative at latter’s request
+ China to promote high-quality development of aluminium sector, actively respond to trade frictions
+ China’s logistics sector grew by 5.3% in Jan-Feb at US$7.76 trillion, marking 5.3% YoY increase
-ICBC and CCB posted flat annual profits and lower margins; slowing economy and struggling property sector weigh on earnings
+ DeepSeek is probably operating with 2% of the operating expense of OpenAi’s US$7bn operating costs in 2024: Lee Kai-Fu
-China passenger car exports to Russia dropped 48.8% to US$749.9m YoY and truck shipments plunged 87% to US$40.8m
+ BYD made more than US$100bn in sales last year for the first time, surpassed Tesla in revenue
+ Li Auto will become world’s first car company to make its in-vehicle operation system open source
+ China’s COMAC delivered its first C909 aircraft to Lao Airlines
+ CAAC allowed 2 unmannered aircraft operators to start commercial flying business
+ China issued 1st batch of passenger drone operation certificates, marking entered the commercial operation stage of autonomous passenger drones
+ China approved UBS to become the sole shareholder of its securities JV
+ Tencent set to invest €1.16bn in a new unit of French video game publisher Ubisoft Entertainment
+ Chinese start-up Pony AI becomes the first company authorised to operate fully driverless commercial robotaxi services in core parts of CBD in SZ
+ Chinese tea chain Chagee filed for US IPO, will be the first Chinese “new-style tea drink brand” to be listed on US stock market
+ TikTok deadline to be extended if deal not reached: Trump
± CK Hutchison will not sign deal to sell strategic Panama ports next week: sources
+ CK Hutchison started preparations to spin off its global telecommunications assets and list the business in London
*EUROPE*
-Eurozone’s economic sentiment indicator fell to 95.2 in Mar, lowest level in 3 mths
-Eurozone’s consumer confidence indicator fell by 0.9 pts to -14.5 in Mar, lowest in 3 mths
+ Eurozone’s median inflation expectations for next 12-mth remained unchanged at 2.6% in Feb
-Germany’s unemployment rate edged up to 6.3% in Mar, highest level since Sept 2020
+ German software-maker SAP dethroned Danish drug company Novo Nordisk to become the most valuable public company in Europe with total value of €312bn
-Volkswagen said it will “not give in” to Trump’s tariffs
+ BMW to use Alibaba’s AI for cars in China
-UK’s current account deficit widened to £21 bn (2.9% of GDP) in Q4, vs downwardly revised £12.5 bn in Q3
± UK govt laid out plans for higher military spending and cuts to social benefits
± France producer prices in domestic market dropped by 0.8% MoM in Feb in Feb, down for the first time in 5-mth
-Russian will never blindly trust “Western partners” again: Putin
-Russia said won’t implement its Black Sea ceasefire with Ukraine until some sanctions are lifted
*ASIA*
-Japan automobile production will decrease by 4.3% annually over US tariff: Japan Research Institute
-Japan to impose a provisional anti-dumping duty on graphite electrodes from China, citing it sold at unfairly low prices
+ Japan’s seafood exports to China would be lifted if the upcoming 2nd test result of seawater samples collected near Fukushima nuclear power station shows no abnormalities: Wang Yi
+ SoftBank is considering a massive J¥150 trillion (US$1 trillion) investment in US AI sector: Nikkei
-India posted current account deficit of US$11.5bn in 3-mth to Dec 2024, up from a revised US$10.4bn
+ India’s infrastructure output advanced by 2.9% YoY, vs upwardly revised 5.1% growth in previous mth, weakest in 5 mths
+ Hyundai plans to invest US$21bn in US, including US$5.8bn towards a steel plant in Louisiana
*ASEAN*
-Indonesia Rupiah hit its lowest rate since the 1998 Asian Financial Crisis
+ Indonesia joined BRICS-backed New Development Bank
-Myanmar hit by powerful 7.7 magnitude earthquake, with tremors felt across Thailand Bangkok, nearby Chinese provinces
+ Malaysia’s export, import prices up 0.1% and 0.3% in Feb
-Malaysia to tighten semiconductor regulations under US pressure: FT
-Sg factory output fell 1.3% YoY in Feb, breaking its 7-mth expansion streak after biomedical, electronic clusters fell into contraction
± Sg producer inflation rose 5.1% YoY in Feb, vs 5.5% in previous mth
+ Sg bank loans lending increased to S$841.1bn in Feb, up from S$836.3bn in Jan, largest amount since Jun 2022
+ Sg STI crosses 4000-mark for the first time
+ Sg fund inflows surged 167% to S$7.6bn for 2024: Morningstar
+ Sg sustainability legal services market to treble to at least S$450m by 2033: PwC
+ Sg carbon credit tender receives bids totalling more than S$1.3bn
Contribution by Derek@valueinvestments chat group. Thank you.
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