Wolf Money(world market review 1-6 April 2025)
Market Summary 1-6 Apr 2025
*USA*
-Trump announced new universal tariffs on nearly all US trading partners; elevated tariffs rates on dozen of nations run trade surplus with US, imposing 10% baseline tax on imports, 34% tax imports from China, 20% on EU
+ S&P 500 sank 4.8%, its worst day since pandemic in 2020, Dow down 4%, Nasdaq tumbled 6% after Trump’s tariffs
-US stock market wipes out >US$5 trillion on Trump’s tariff war
± Powell emphasised that employment and inflation remain core data points guiding monetary policy
-Powell: larger than expected tariffs likely to boost inflation, slow growth
+ Fed seen waiting until Jun to start rate cuts, after big job gains last mth: Jefferies economist
-Morgan Stanley expects Fed will not cut rates this year due to potential elevated inflation levels
+ US nonfarm payrolls rose by 228,000 in Mar, strongest in 3-mth, unemployment at 4.2% at approximately 7.1m, still low by historical standards
+ US private payrolls increased by 155,000 in Mar after upwardly revised 84,000 rises in Feb: ADP
+ US average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 9 cents or 0.3% to US$36 in Mar
+ US Manufacturing PMI came in at 50.2 in Mar, surpassing preliminary estimate of 49.8
+ US PMI Composite PMI at 53.5 in Mar, vs Feb’s 51.6: S&P Global
+ US factory new orders up 0.6% or US$3.6bn to land at US$594bn in Feb
+ US Services PMI Business Activity Index at 54.4 in Mar, the highest level in 2025
-US 25% auto tariff may cost consumers >US$30bn in first year: report shows
+ California governor said he will fight back against Trump’s latest tariffs, instructing to forge strategic alliances with countries eyeing retaliatory measures on US goods
+ US 1-year Treasury note yield dropped to 4.04%, lowest level since Oct 2024, 10-year yield fell below 4% to 6-mth low of 3.96%
-US goods and service trade deficit down by 6.1% from Jan to reach US$122.7bn in Feb
+ US initial jobless claims down by 6000 to 219,000
-US job cuts in Mar up 60% at 275,240 to highest since May 2020
-US Commerce Secretary: there is “no chance” that Trump will back off his new tariff policy
+ Apple promised to invest US$5bn, Oracle US$500m, Nvidia “hundreds of billions”, Meta US$500bn and TSMC US$200bn: Trump
+ Musk called for a US-Europe FTZ with zero tariffs
± Musk’s future White House role is not even close to done, will remain a “friend and adviser” to Trump”: Vance
-Tesla sold 78,828 China-made EV in Mar, down 11.5% YoY
+ Visa bids US$100m to replace Mastercard as Apple’s new credit card partner: WSJ
*OTHERS*
-Canada will match US 25% tariffs on all vehicles imported from US that are not compliant with CUSMA: PM
-Canada’s employment fell by 33,000 in Mar, first decline since Jan 2022, pushing jobless rate up to 6.7%
-Global manufacturing PMI edges down to 49.6 in Mar, slipping into contraction territory
+ OPEC+ to boost output by 411,000 bpd in May
-Brent crude tumbled 13% through Thur and Fri to over US$66 a barrel
+ Gold hit record high as Trump announces sweeping tariffs
*CHINA*
-China hits back at US with 34% extra tariffs starting Apr 10, file lawsuit at WTO against US reciprocal tariffs
+ China-EU agreed to promptly restart proposed price commitment talks regarding EU’s anti-subsidy case involving Chinese EVs
+ China’s Caixin PMI reached 51.9 in Mar to 3-mth high
-China’s sovereign credit rating lower from A+ to A by Fitch, citing worsening public finances and rising debts, projecting debt-to-GDP ratio to increase
-China’s bad loans could exceed 6% following higher US tariffs: S&P Global
-China to implement export controls on certain and heavy rare earth-related items
-China reportedly taken steps to restrict local companies from investing in US, gearing up for an escalation in trade war
-Chinese market regulator launched anti-monopoly probe into DuPont from US, anti-dumping industrial into imported medical CT tubes from US, India
+ CATL will join hands with Sinopec to build 10,000 battery swap stations
+ China plans to launch pilot projects in 9 cities using country’s growing fleet of EV as batteries to shore up grid power
+ China will extend anti-dumping investigation into EU brandy by 3 mths, delays definitive penalties; mainly French cognac suppliers
-China suspends import qualifications of 6 US enterprises, to protect consumers’ health and safety of livestock industry
-China adds 11 US companies to unreliable entity list for ‘military technology cooperation’ with Taiwan
+ Chinese automakers Changan and Dongfeng Motor hold merger talks: NYT
± ByteDance said has been in discussion with US govt regarding potential solution for TikTok US, any agreement will subject to approval under Chinese law
± Tencent, ByteDance, Alibaba placed at least US$16bn in orders for Nvidia’s H20 server chips in first 3 mths: The Information
+ HK index of 2nd-hand private property prices posted its largest weekly increase in 3 mths, supported by relaxation of stamp duty
+ HK IPO market raised HK$18.2bn in Q1, up nearly 2.9 times YoY, ranked 4th globally: Deloitte
+ HKEX plans OTC market for delisted shares
*EUROPE*
-EU plans to impose its own duties on €26 billion worth of US goods
+ Eurozone PPI rose by 0.2% in Feb MOM
-ECB policymakers are not longer certain monetary policy remains sufficiently restrictive duet to tariffs, defense spending
+ EU: trade deal with Latin American’s Mercosur bloc would be a “massive opportunity” given US tariffs
+ EU-China officials hold 16th bilateral financial dialogue in Belgium
+ UK’s car registrations up 12.4% to 357,103 units in Mar
-UK published a 400-page list of US goods it could include in any possible retaliatory tariff
-France’s Macron calls for EU companies to freeze investment in US after tariffs
-French President called for emergency talks from industries affected by new US tariffs
"ASIA* / *OCEANIA*
-Japan’s economic growth set to slow annual economic expansion by up to around 2% in coming years by Trump’s tariffs
-Japan business sentiment among large manufacturers worsened for the first time in a year, partly due to worries about US tariffs
+ Nissan considering shifting some domestic production of US-bound vehicles to US
-Iran’s rial currency hit record low against USD amid growing tensions with US over Iran’s nuclear programme
+ Australia’s trade surplus at A$3bn in Feb, way under expectations and much lower than A$5.2bn in Jan
+ Australia PM pledges A$2.3bn to help homeowners buy solar batteries
*ASEAN*
+ Indonesia and China discuss establishment of AI innovation centre, aims to create 9m highly capable digital talents in AI by 2030
+ Vietnam FDI grew 7.2% YoY to US$4.96bn in Q1; manufacturing-processing sector received biggest share, top 3 sources were Singapore around US$3bn, followed by S Korea, China, Japan, Taiwan
± Anwar confirms high-level talks with US over new tariffs on Malaysia
+ Malaysia’s economic growth may face setbacks due to US tariff hike: Anwar
-PM Wong: trade-reliant Singapore will take ‘bigger hit’ than others in US tariffs-induces slowdown
+ Sg PMI slips to 50.6 in Mar, down 0.1 pt from Feb, the 19th straight mth of expansion
-Sg retail sales down 3.6% YoY in Feb, SingStat attributed the decline to CNY being celebrated in Jan
+ Sg listed UMS Holdings n Grand Venture Tech received approval from Malaysian regulators to pursue secondary listings on Bursa
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