Wolf Money(world market review 7-13 Apr 2025)
Market Summary 7-13 Apr 2025
*USA*
-US govt bonds underwent big sell-off on Wed, at some points reached levels not seen since 2001
-US year-ahead inflation expectations quickened for 5th straight mth to 6.7% in Apr, steepest since Nov 1981
+ US inflation adjusted 0.1% in Mar, putting 12-mth rate at 2.4% vs 2.8% in Feb; core inflation at 2.8% YoY, up 0.1% for the mth
-US University of Michigan consumer sentiment plunged to 50.8 in Apr, lowest level since Jun 2022 from 57 in Mar
+ US producer prices rose 2.7% YoY in Mar, easing from 3.2 increase in Feb, smallest annual gain since Sept
-US factory gate prices down 0.4% MoM in Mar, first decline in PPI since Oct 2023
-US core producer prices rose by 3.3%, the least in 6 mths, vs 3.5% in Feb
-US initial jobless claims rose by 4000 to 223,000
-US bond sell-off raised instability threat, influencing Trump tariff U-turn, ‘the worst self-inflicted wound’: Yellen
-US 10-year Treasury note surged roughly 10bps above 4.5% on Fri, highest level since mid-Feb
+ US Treasury sold US$22bn in 30-year bonds on Thur at 4.813%, beating market expectations
-US average rate on popular 30-year fixed mortgage surged 13bps to 7.1%, highest level since Feb
+ Trump announces 90-day pause on ‘reciprocal’ tariffs with exception of China
+ US exempts smartphones, laptop computers, hard drivers, computer processors, memory chips from Tariffs, largely from China
-Trump admin is moving toward a possible de-listing of Chinese public shares: report
+ Trump says he will provide an update on approach to semiconductor tariffs on Mon
-Jamie Dimon said he expects “a kerfuffle” in the US Treasury market that prompts a Federal Reserve intervention
-US 90-day duty halt reportedly excludes Canada, Mexico: CBC
-US is drafting an executive to enable the stockpiling of deep-sea metals to counter China’s dominance in battery minerals and rare earth supply chains: FT
+ Trump to consider tariff exemptions for some local companies that have been hit hard in the markets
-US traffic could disrupt complex pharmaceutical supply chain, driving up process of drugs n exacerbating shortages of critical medicine: CNBC
-US 25% tariffs on imported vehicles expecting to see a drop in vehicles in millions, increased costs >US$100bn
-Trump signed executive orders aimed at boosting the US coal industry
-US new vehicles net prices will rise by roughly US$2000 to US$4000 over next 6-12 mths: Goldman Sachs
-Trump trade war could hit imports at busiest US port in May: port executive
-US further raised tariffs on small parcels valued at US$800 or below from China and HK to 120%
-US GDP to drop 0.8% to 1.4% by 2027: European Trade Commissioner
+ US-China tariff war steers gold through US$3200 per ounce
-Foreign investors dumped US$6.5bn of US equities in a week: BofA Global Research
-US stocks short sellers of large-cap stocks lost US$75bn on Wed as Trump tariff pause sparks historic Wall St rally: Cailanpress
-BlackRock CEO: “I think we’re very close, if not in, a recession now”: CNBC
+ Morgan Stanley Q1 revenue up 17.2% to US$17.7bn, Wells Fargo down 3% to US$20.15bn, JPMorgan up 8% to US$46bn
-Democratic Senator called on Congress to investigate Trump for possible insider trading and market manipulation following his trade policy U-turn
-US oil rig count down 34 rigs or 6%, the most in a week since Jun 2023: Baker Hughes
+ Alphabet and Nvidia invested in OpenAI co-founder Sutskever’s SSI: sources
*LATIN AMERICAN* / OTHER
-Brazil annual inflation rose to 5.48% in Mar to >2 years high
+ Argentia sealed US$20bn, 48-mth extended fund facility deal with IMF, eases currency control, loosened its grip on the peso
± BRICS members engaged in in-depth discussions regarding US “reciprocal tariffs” policy
*CHINA*
-China hikes tariffs on US goods from 84% 5o 125%, citing it will no longer make economic sense n will become a joke in the history of world economy
+ China’s CPI fell by 0.1% in Mar YoY, easing from Feb’s 0.7% decline
+ China’s new bank loans rebounded to ¥3.54 trillion in Mar, beating expectations
+ Xi heads to SEA for a 3-ntaion tour; Vietnam, Malaysia and Cambodia
+ Shenzhen Stock Exchange announced plans to develop policies aimed at facilitating long-term capital inflows
+ China’s exports of new-energy vehicles in Q1 grow 43.9% YoY to 441,000 units
+ China’s passenger vehicles sales in Mar amounted to 1.97m units, up by 14.4% YoY and 40.1% compared to Feb
+ China will remain steadfast in advancing high-level opening-up and following its own development path despite US tariff bullying: MOFCOM
+ China considered opening its US$520bn ETF market to Western market makers: sources
+ Chinese SME index reached 89.5, the highest since 2020
-China’s rare earth exports grind to a halt last week as trade war controls bite
+ Country Garden reached agreement with creditors holding nearly 30% of existing offshore bond debt and close to finalising terms
-China released a travel risk alert warning to Chinese citizen about visiting the US
+ JDcom to spend ¥200bn to help exporters go domestic amid trade war
-China delaying approval for plans by Geely and BYD investment plans in Latin America
-China reportedly explores other buyers for CK Hutchison’s ports
-China to reduce Hollywood movie releases in response to Trump’s tariffs
+ CATL will be listed on HK after getting an approval, to raise at least US$5bn
+ Shein secured approval form UK for its planned IPO in London, awaits China nod: sources
+ Chinese tea brand Chagee targets US$5.1bn valuation in US IPO
+ ByteDance is developing AI smart glasses
-Fitch lowers Alibaba, Tencent, and Tencent Music ratings to A from A+
+ TSMC Q1 sales rose by 41.6% to reach US$25.5bn, net revenue at US$8.7bn, a rise 10% MoM and 46.5% YoY
-TSMC could be fined US$1bn by US in Huawei case
*EUROPE*
+ EU puts approved counter-tariffs on hold for 90 days after Trump’s trade U-turn
+ EU and China begun discussions about removing European import duties for Chinese battery-powered vehicles, will look into setting minimum prices on EVs
-EU ready to expand trade war to US services, tech sector: Ursula
+ ECB is ready to use the available instruments in order to achieve price and financial stability in the face of tariffs: Lagarde
-EU could tax big tech if Trump trade talks fail: Von der Leyen
+ EU, UAE to start free trade talks
+ UK GDP rose 0.5% in Feb MOM
+ Prada entered into a definitive agreement to acquire Versace for US$1.38bn from Capri Holdings, to be finalised in H2
*ASIA*
+ BoJ to continue raising rates if economy keeps improving
+ Japan’s PPI rose by 4.2% in Mar YoY, beating expectations
+ Aramco announces discovery of 14 new petroleum and gas deposits
± ASEAN bloc seeks dialogue with US on tariffs but won’t retaliate
-Vietnam is prepared to crack down on Chinese goods being shipped to US via its territory when facing US tariffs
+ Sg expected to further ease its monetary policy on Mon
Contribution by Derek@valueinvestments chat group. Thank you.
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