Wolf Money(world market review 5-11 May 2025)
Market Summary 5-11 May 2025
*USA*
± Fed leaves key interest tare unchanged at 4.25%-4.5%
± Fed can’t act pre-emptively amid tariff uncertainty, acknowledged concerns about labour market: Powell
+ US-China met in Switzerland this weekend to discuss the trade spat between the 2 countries
± US considering slashing its 145% on Chinese imports to between 50%-54% as soon as next wk: NY Post
-US goods and services trade deficit rose by 14% MoM at US$140.5bn in Mar
+ US wholesale inventories up 0.4% in Mar
+ US initial jobless claims for wk ending May 3 down by 13,000 to 228,000
-US consumer Technology Association warned tariffs could reduce purchasing power by up to US$123bn annually
-Trump calls for 100% tariff on foreign-made movies to save ‘dying’ Hollywood
± US plans to rescind and modify Biden-era rule that curbed the export of sophisticated AI chips
-US rejected Japan’s exemption from reciprocal tariffs
-US Senate announced it had not succeeded to advance stablecoin bill
+ US mortgage applications up by 11% in week ending May 2: MBA
-Nvidia CEO says China AI market to hit US$50bn in next 2-3 yrs, missing it would be ‘tremendous loss’
-Tesla’s China sales fell 6% MoM in Apr to 58.459 units
+ Bill Gates gives foundation 20 years to spend ‘all his wealth’
+ US federal appeals court rejected FTC challenge to Microsoft’s US$69bn Activision Blizzard deal
± OpenAI Altman admits US barely ahead of China in AI race
*NORTH / SOUTH AMERICA*
-Canada’s unemployment climbed to 6.9% in Apr vs 6.7% in Mar to over 3-year high
+ Brazil expressed desire to build sustainable, long-term and actionable partnerships with China to jointly navigate increasingly complex and volatile global environment
-Mexico’s car exports down 10.9% YoY in Apr as new US tariffs reduced shipments to US, car production down 9.1% YoY
*CHINA*
+ China cuts key policy rate by 10 bps and lower RRR by 50 bps, injecting ¥1 trillion of liquidity into market
+ China is formulating policy measures to ensure banking and insurance industries increase their support for exporters hit by US tariff war; providing broader access to financing, faster loan approvals
-China’s CPI down 0.1% YoY in Apr, marked 3rd consecutive mth of consumer deflation
+ China moved to accelerate the replacement of US products before high-level trade talks with US in Switzerland: CCTV
+ China signed letter of intent with exporters of Argentina to buy about US$900m of soybeans, corn, vegetable oil: Bloomberg
+ China to roll out ¥3 trillion of high-quality projects to boost private sector participation
+ China exports to US fell 21% YoY to about US$33bn in Apr, overall exports rose 8.1% in USD term, with exports to non-US markets up 13%
+ China has increased the ability for listed firms to buy back shares since US trade war hit, to continue using this tool
+ China is speeding up establishment of series of financing systems that are compatible with “new real estate development model” to support property market
+ China loans to white-listed real estate companies approved by commercial banks have increased to ¥6.7 trillion
+ China’s current account surged to record US$165.6bn in Q1, up sharply from US$47.2bn same period last year
-China PPI fell 2.7% in Apr, the 31st straight mth of deflation and steepest pace in last 6 mths
± China’s Caixin PMI at 50.7 in Apr from 51.9 in Mar
± China’s offshore yuan broke past 7.2 level against USD for the first time sine Nov
+ China plans to raise its funding for technological innovation by ¥300bn, pushing total financing limit to ¥800bn
+ China removed 5% RRR for auto financing firms to bolster auto sales
+ Chinese major cities including BJ, GZ and SZ cut personal housing provident fund loan interest rates by 0.25%
± China planning a special operation to crackdown on the smuggling and illegal export of strategic minerals
+ China’s car sales in Apr rose for 3rd mth, up 14.8% YoY
-China’s food prices fell by 0.2% YoY in Apr, vs 1.4% decline in Mar
+ China plans to create the conditions for its foreign-listed firms to return to domestic stock markets
+ China’s independently developed AG600 large amphibious aircraft successfully completed all compliance flights
+ China’s first set of intelligent inspection robots for freight railways has entered operation in Gangzhou
+ Huawei plans to launch 1st HarmonyOS-powered PC device on May 19
+ TSMC posted 48.1% YoY revenue jump in Apr at NT349.6bn
*EUROPE*
-EU may target US imports worth €95bn if tariff talks fail, proposes zero-tariff deal on industrial goods with US
-Eurozone and EU both PPI declined by 1.6% MoM
+ EU must ratify Mercosur deal quickly: German Chancellor
± EU plans to end Russian gas dependency by end 2027
+ Germany’s foreign trade surplus at €21.2 bn in Mar, vs Feb’s €17.7bn
+ Germany’s factory orders up 3.6% MoM in Mar
+ Germany industrial production in manufacturing sector up by 3% MoM in Mar
-UK trade deal with US still left tariffs on most British exports to US higher than they were before; need to rebuild trading relationship with EU: BoE
+ UK-US deal US car tariffs from 27.5% to 10%: Starmer
+ BoE reduced interest rate by 0.25 bps to 4.25%
-Switzerland’s consumer confidence index at -42 in Apr, lowest in 14 mths
+ Putin proposes direct peace talks with Ukraine in Istanbul on May 15
*ASIA*
+ BoJ signals rate hike if economic growth and inflation meet their projections
± Japan PM reiterates call to eliminate all tariffs with US
-Japan’s leading economic indicators index declined to 107.7 in Mar, lowest in 4 mths
-Japan’s coincident index, measure factory output, employment, retail sales fell to 116 in Mar, lowest in 4 mths
-Japan inflation-adjusted real wages dropped 2.1% YoY in Mar
-Panasonic to cut 10,000 global positions
+ India, Pakistan agree to an immediate ceasefire after days of military escalation
± India offers to slash tariff gap by 2/3 in dash to seal trade pact with US
-India-US trade deal have been put on hold due to ongoing military conflict with Pakistan
+ Aramco posted US$26bn Q1 net income
+ UAE and Disney reached an agreement to open a Disney theme park and resort in Abu Dhabi
-Pakistan military says it ‘paralysed 70% of India’s power grid’
+ ASEAN remains China’s top trading partner, with trade value growing 9.2% YoY to ¥2.38 trillion in Apr
+ Indonesia’s IPO market doubles in early 2025, raising nearly US$420m from 13 listings
± Thailand lowered 2025 economic growth forecast to 2.1% from 3%, citing impact of US tariffs and global economic slowdown
+ Thai exports surged by 17.8% YoY in Mar, marking highest growth in 3 yrs
+ Malaysia manufacturing sector sales value rises 3.7% YoY at RM164.3bn in Mar
± Malaysia 10-year govt bond yield decreased to a 3-year low of 3.6%
+ Anwar: 144 projects worth RM14bn implemented in Sabah
+ Johor optimistic about achieving nearly RM60bn FDI by 2Q
+ Sg retail sales rebound in Mar, up 1.1% vs Feb’s 3.5% decline
+ SG, EU signed new trade agreement to boost digital connectivity
-Sg hotels recorded an average room rate of S$272.63, down 3.3% YoY, visitor arrivals steady
+ Changi Airport T5 construction contracts worth about S$4.75bn awarded, will be able to handle up to 50m passengers a yr, on top of it’s current capacity of 90m
Contribution by Derek@valueinvestments chat group. Thank you.
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