Wolf Money(world market review 12-18 May 2025)
Market Summary 12-18 May 2025
*USA*
-Moody’s deliverers first US credit ratings downgrades since 1917 from Aa1 from Aaa, citing “persistent, large fiscal deficits” show no signs of slowing
-Powell warned about higher long-term rates as supply shocks challenge economic policy
+ US annual inflation at 2.3% in Apr, down from 2.4% in Mar
-US year-ahead inflation expectations accelerated 6th straight mth to 7.3% in May, highest inflation expectation since 1981
+ US Apr consumer spending up 0.1%, after pre-tariff buying spree in Mar, when spending surged 1.7%
-US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey declined again in May to 50.8, 2nd lowest reading in survey’s history
-House Republicans unveiled a tax proposal that would raise US debt ceiling by US$4 trillion, while delivering over US$4 trillion in tax cuts, largely favouring high earners
-House Republicans failed to push their package of tax breaks and spending cuts through the Budget Committee, as handful of conservatives joined all Democrats voted against it
+ US needs to pay off debt before establishing a sovereign wealth fund: Trump
± Trump said US will be sending letters to countries outlining “what they will be paying to do business in the US”
+ US capital inflow rise for 2nd straight mth in Mar
+ US regulators plan to reduce supplementary leverage ratio (SLR), introduced after 2008 GFC, that requires banks to hold a set amount of capital against all assets, including safer ones
± US industrial production unchanged in Apr compared to Mar
± US PPI for final demand on seasonally adjusted basis down by 0.5% in Apr
-US building permits fell 4.7% to a seasonally adjusted annualised rate of 1.412m in Apr, lowest in 11 mths
+ US housing starts at 1,36,000 in Apr, up by 1.6% MoM
-US builder confidence for newly-built single-family homes at 34 in May, vs 40 in Apr, current sales conditions index down by 8 pts to 37
-US issues worldwide restriction on using Huawei AI chips
-US reportedly considering placing more Chinese companies, including ChangXin Memory on restricted export list: FT
+ Trump says Saudi to invest US$1 trillion, touting deals in US, secures US$200bn in new US-UAE deals, to boost AI cooperation, on his ME trips
+ US weighs letting UAE buy over a million advanced Nvidia chips
-US set to lose US$12.5bn in revenue from foreign tourists in 2025, the only country set to see a drop
+ Boeing near deal to avoid guilty plea, prosecution in fatal crashes case: sources
-Microsoft to cut 6000 workers, under 3% of its workforce, across geographies and employees levels from Jul 13
+ Nvidia is seeking to build a research and development centre in Shanghai: FT
-Walmart is raising some prices due to tariffs, withholds 2nd qtr profit guidance; Trump tells Walmart to ‘eat the tariffs’ instead of raising prices
*GLOBE*
+ OPEC: global oil demand forecast still at 1.3m bpd in 2025
*CHINA*
+ China’s upcoming 15th year plan (2026-2030) is expected to centre on building up new quality productive forces, key priorities include expanding domestic demand, boosting consumption, creating high-quality jobs n increasing household incomes
+ China to cut tariffs on US imports from May 14; tariffs previously set at 34% will drop to 10%, to suspend planned 24% hike for 90 days
-China announced anti-dumping duties of up to 74.9% on imports of POM copolymers, type of engineering plastic, from the US, EU, Japan n Taiwan.
+ China’s real estate market may stabilise this year, offering a boost to lenders, particularly top-tier cities: S&P Global Ratings
+ China issued ¥10.06 trillion in new yuan-denominated loans in first 4 mths
+ China removed ban on Boeing deliveries after US trade truce
+ China’s top internet companies have stockpiled billions of dollars’ worth Nividia's H20 AI chips this year before US cut off shipments in Apr: Nikkei Asia
+ China resumes rare earth exports under tight controls as global prices have rocketed
+ China to accelerate the availability of tax refund stores for eligible overseas visitors to about 10,000 shops nationwide, tripling the current number
-China-US air cargo plummets after US scrapped duty-free treatment for low-value parcels from China
+ China built ocean-going car carrier, world’s largest in terms of capacity, set sail on its maiden voyage to Europe, carriying about 7000 China-made vehicles
± China’s top market regulator pledged a sweeping crackdown on cutthroat competition
+ Hainan island starts independent Customs operations by end year, level of openness expected to reach new highs and benefits more foreign partners
+ Huawei launches first HarmonyOS laptop with built-in AI
+ Xiaomi to launch new self-designed smartphone chip
+ BYD plans to establish a European centre in Hungary, unveiled new batteries in SZ, shares hit HK$420.40 at all time high
+ XPeng has entered Italy market, explore one of Europe’s top 5 automotive markets, showcases AI cars and flying vehicle in Milan
+ Changan begun production at its first overseas NEV factory in Thailand , with annual capacity of 100,000 vehicles
+ Temu n Shein launch aggressive campaigns in European market amid US trade uncertainty
+ Alibaba’s net profit in 4th fiscal qtr ending in Mar almost quadrupled to ¥12.38bn, while quarterly revenue missed projections
+ JD.com daily volume of its rebranded food delivery services exceeded 20m, will open its first physical food mall
+ HK’s GDP expanded by 3.1% YoY in Q1, supported by increase in exports of goods and services, resumption of growth in overall investment expenditure
+ Shein to set up a huge Vietnam warehouse in US tariff hedge: sources
*EUROPE*
+ Eurozone’s seasonally adjusted GDP expanded by 0.3% in Q1
+ Eurozone recorded a trade surplus in goods of €36.8bn in Mar to record level, up from €24bn surplus in Feb
+ EU simplifies Common Agricultural Policy, aiming to increase the sector’s competitiveness, estimated could save up to €1.6bn annually for farmers
-Germany’s economic downturn and tax relief likely to reduce total tax revenues by €81.2bn between 2025 and 2029
+ UK’s economy grew 0.2% in Mar from Feb, GDP grew by 0.7% in Q1
-France and China failed to end a dispute over cognac tariffs: Finance Minister
+ Putin-Zelensky meeting ‘possible’ – Kremlin
+ Russia’s GDP expanded 1.4% YoY in Q1, inflation down from 10.3% to 10.2% YoY in Apr
± Russia currently assessing possibility of extending restrictions on gas exports for 2 more mths until end Oct
*ASIA*
-Japanese GDP declined for the first time in a year, shrinking by 0.2% on quarterly basis in Q1
-Japan’s Apr core inflation likely speed up to fastest pace in 2 yrs: Reuters poll
+ Japan’s PPI rose by 4% YoY in Apr
+ Japan’s seasonally adjusted industrial production index up by 0.2% monthly at 102.4 in Mar
-Nissan shuts plants, culls jobs after worst loss in 25 years
-India’s merchandise trade deficit in Apr at US$26.42bn, rose from US$21.54bn in Mar
+ India had offered a trade deal that proposed “no tariffs” for American goods: Trump
-South Korea country’s economy is facing increasing downward pressure, mostly having to do with slowdown in exports” Ministry
+ South East Asia e-commerce sales to more than double to US$40bn by 2030: DBS
+ Indonesia plans to slash fuel imports from Singapore and pivot to supplies from US and ME, could redirect up to 60% away from Singapore over next 6 mths: Minister
+ Vietnam steps up talks with US to reduce hefty tariff
+ Malaysia’s GDP expands 4.4% in Q1 on robust household spending and strong job market
+ Malaysia’s current account surplus widened sharply to MYR16.7bn in Q1 from MYR8.7bn, largest surplus since Q4 of 2022
+ Malaysia’s FDI inflows down to MYR15.57bn in Q1, lowest in 3 quarters
+ Sg NODX export surged 12.4% YoY in Apr on front-loaded shipments amid Trump tariff truce
+ Sg may get preferential tariff or exemption for pharmaceutical exports in US trade talks: DPM
+ Chinese and HK firms at least 5 of them are eyeing listing on SGX, dual listings, or share placement next 12-18 mths; include a Chinese healthcare gp, a Shanghai-based biotech gp: sources
+ PSA has handled 14.2m TEUs from Jan-Apr, could beat its own record for 2nd consecutive year
+ JTC to reclaim about 49 ha of land off Lorong Halus to meet future demand
+ SIA achieved record profits for 3rd consecutive year, posted net profit of S$2.778bn for FY 2024/25
Contribution by Derek@valueinvestments chat group. Thank you.
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