Wolf Money(world market review 19-25 May 2025)
Market Summary 19-25 May 2025
*USA*
-Trump calls for 50% tariff on EU, says he is 'not looking for a deal' with bloc
-Trump threatens 25% tariff on Apple and says Samsung and other tech companies could be next
-Chicago Fed National Activity Index declined to -0.25 in Apr, indicating a contraction in overall economic activity; 3 of the 4 major categories weighed negatively
+ S&P Global US Composite PMI rose to 52.1 in May vs 50.6 in Apr; Services rose to 52.3 from 17-mth low of 50.8, Manufacturing increased to 52.3, highest in 3 mths
+ US initial jobless claims lower by 2000 from previous week to 227,000, lowest in 4 weeks
-US 30-year mortgage rates backed by Freddie Mac rose by 5bps from previous to 6.86%, highest in >3 mths
+ US sales of new single-family homes surged by 10.9% MoM in May, sharpest increase since Aug 2022
-US existing home sales declined 0.5% to seasonally adjusted rate of 4m in Apr, lowest in 7 mths
-US building permits fell by 4% to seasonally adjusted annualised rate of 1.422m in Apr, revised upward from estimate of 1.412m
± US some banks explore venturing into crypto with joint stablecoin: WSJ
-US EPA has drafted plans to end greenhouse gas limits on power plants: NYT
+ US 12 states urged a federal court to strike down Trump’s sweeping taxes on imports, citing he had exceeded his authority: AP
+ Trump supports Nippon Steel’s bid for US Steel
-Trump administration bars Harvard from enrolling int’l students; US judge temporarily halts Trump’s block on foreign students
+ US Justice Dept reaches deal with Boeing to avoid prosecution
-US agency voted to bar Chinese labs, deemd security risks from testing US electronics
-Nvidia Jensen Huang says ‘Deeply Painful’ China ban on Nvidia’s H20 chips will cut sales by US$15bn
+ Nvidia to launch cheaper Blackwell AI chip for China, lower price than H20 model: sources
+ Apple aims to launch smart glasses in 2026 in push into AI devices
-G7 economies pledged to tackle “excessive imbalances” in the global economy, warned of possible further sanctions on Russia
*CHINA*
-China’s fiscal revenue shrank 0.4% in first 4th mths YoY; fiscal expenditure up 4.6%
+ China proposed a new set of stimulus measures aimed at supporting small and micro-sized enterprises, particularly in agricultural sector
+ PBoC injected ¥500bn into financial institutions through a 1-year medium-term lending facility to maintain ample liquidity
+ China has lowered ceiling of deposit rates, as authorities seek to protect banks’ profit margins and discourage savings: banking sources
+ China’s subsidies for mobile phones and other digital production exceeded 50m units in past 4 mths
+ Chinese VP He Lifeng met chair of Citigroup and CEO, JPMorgan CEO separately in Beijing
+ Chinese firms announced US$4.7bn of investment into Brazil; from beverages n automotive to food delivery n renewable energy
+ China’s exports of solar cells, passenger EVs and lithium-ion continued to grow in Apr; solar cell exports up 66.6% YoY, passenger EVs up 37.8%, lithium-ion at 25.8%
+ BYD overtakes Tesla in Europe for the first time in Apr, reported 169% surge in sales
+ Alibaba Cloud doubling down on globalisation with US$52.7bn investment plan, aimed at creating unified global cloud network and accelerating int’l rollout of its AI offerings
+ CATL opened well above subscription price in HK stock listing that raised US$4.6bn
+ Country Garden >70% of bondholders back offshore debt overhaul plan
+ China will give additional US$500m to the WHO over 5 years as UN seeks extra funding to offset expected loss of top donor US
-HK annual inflation rose to 2% in Apr, highest level since Jan
+ HSBC launched HK’s first blockchain-based settlement service with Ant
-Macau’s GDP contracted by 1.3% YoY in Q1, reversing a 3.4% gain in previous qtr, weakest in 2 yrs
+ Foxconn among potential bidders for Singaporean chip assembly firm UTAC in US$3bn deal: sources
*EUROPE*
+ ECB fight against inflation is approaching its final stages: Minutes
-HCOB Eurozone Composite PMI fell to 49.5 in May, first contraction in private sector activity this year; Manufacturing PMI rose to 49.4 at 33-mth high, Services PMI fell to 48.9, returned to contraction for the first time since Jan 2024
-EU launched probe into alleged dumping of tyres for passenger cars and light lorries from China; already has anti-dumping and anti-subsidy on imports of tyres from buses and lorries from China
-EU is considering cutting >20 banks from SWIFT, lowering price cap on Russian oil and banning Nord Stream gas pipelines in new Russian sanctions
-EU plans €2 fee on small parcels from outside bloc
+ Germany Q1 GDP expanded by 0.4% QoQ in Q1, revised upward from estimate of a 0.2% rise
-Germany HCOB Flash Composite PMI fell to 48.6 in May from 50.1 in Apr, indicated private sector returned to contraction
+ Germany Ifo Business Climate indicator edged up to 87.5 in May, highest in 11 mths
-German Chancellor supports EU plan to ban any use of Nord Stream gas pipelines, amid reports that Russia and US are exploring ways to resume shipments through the still-intact line of Nord Steam 2, as to normalise ties between US and Russia: FT
-UK public sector net borrowing rose to £20.2bn in Apr, up from £19.1 YoY; total public sector spending up by £6.6bn from a yr ago
+ UK retail sales jumped 1.2% MoM in Apr, beating forecasts of a 0.2% rise
-France HCOB Flash Composite PMI inched up to 48 in May from 47.8 in Apr
+ Italy’s outlook upgraded by Moody’s from “stable” to “positive”, citing increased confidence on its fiscal and political trajectory
+ Russian ruble reached 78.9 against USD, strongest level since mid-May 2023
*ASIA*
-Japan’s annual inflation at 3.6% in Apr; Core inflation rose 3.5% YoY in Apr, up from 3.2% in Mar, highest reading in >2 yrs
-Japan Manufacturing PMI increased to 49 in May, up from 48.7 in Apr, marked the 11th consecutive mth of contraction
-Japan’s 10-year govt bond yield climbed above 1.55%, approaches 2008 high
+ India HSBC Composite PMI rose to 61.2 in May from 59.7 in Apr at 13-mth high; services sector growth at 14-mth high, factory growth hits 11 mths high
+ South Korea’s producer inflation slowed to 0.9% YoY in Apr, down from 1.3% in Mar, at lowest since Nov 2023
+ ASEAN-China concluded negotiations on an upgraded FTA, known as version 3.0, could be signed within the year
-Indonesia’s current account deficit decline to US$0.17bn in Q1, down from US$2.44bn in Q1 2024
+ Indonesian president and Chinese premier meet to discuss expanding trade and investment
+ Indonesia to cut transport and power prices and deliver other stimulus in Jun n Jul to boost consumption
+ Vietnam-China will resume cross-border passenger train operations, deepening bilateral connectivity
-Malaysia’s leading economic index edged down 0.04% MoM in Mar, its 3rd drops this yr
+ Malaysia’s annual inflation held steady at 1.4% in Apr
+ Malaysia becomes 1st country outside China to deploy Huawei chips (likely Ascend GPUs), servers, n DeepSeek's LLM
± Sg GDP grew 3.9% YoY but shrank 0.6% QoQ; may slip into technical recession this yr: Permanent Secretary
+ Sg annual inflation rate stood at 0.9% in Apr, unchanged from previous 2 mths, remained at lowest level since Feb 2021; Core consumer prices increased by 0.7% YoY in Apr
+ MAS will shortlist fund managers for its S$5 billion Equity Market Development Programme by Q3
-Sg 1 in 3 already feeling tariff pain; 9 in 10 expect ripple effects soon: SBF pool
+ Sg to review height restriction requirements around airports
Contribution by Derek@valueinvestments chat group. Thank you.
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