Wolf Money(world market review 28 April-4 May 2025)
Market Summary 28 Apr – 4 May 2025
*USA*
-US GPD contracted by an annualised 0.3% in Q1 as import surged; businesses rushed to buy imported goods ahead of tariffs
+ Fed seen cutting policy rate by a full percentage pt this year
+ US consumer spending increased solidly in Mar as households boosted purchases of motor vehicles to avoid higher prices and shortages due to tariffs declined in Apr
-US manufacturing activity declined in Apr, with PMI landed at 48.7, down further from 49 in Mar, New Orders Index at 47.2, Production Index at 44, Employment at 46.5
-US consumer confidence index dropped 7.9 pts to 86 this mth, lowest reading since May 2020
+ US new orders for manufacturing goods rose 4.3% to US$618.8bn in Mar
-US 2 Republican lawmakers urged the SEC to delist Chinese companies, citing military links: FT
-US US$132bn of securities held by funds will mature on Jun 30, additional US$15bn in interest are scheduled to be paid
-US initial jobless claims up by 18,000 to 241, 000
± US job cuts at 105,441 in Apr, down by 62% from 275,240 cuts in Mar, rose 63% YoY
-UPS to cut 20,000 jobs, about 4% of its global workforce, on reduced Amazon deliveries, as US tariffs weigh
-US job openings decreased 288,000 to 7.192m by end of Mar; layoffs decline
+ US added 177,000 jobs in Apr, unemployment stayed steady at 4.2%
+ Bassent emphasised the need for de-escalation with China on tariffs
-Trump’s tariffs could trigger a summer recession, while Americans experiencing store shortages as early as May: Apollo Economist
-US trade deficit in goods widened to record in Mar as businesses ramped up efforts to bring in merchandise ahead of tariffs
+ US home prices recorded a 3.9% annual gain in Feb, slight decrease from Jan
+ Trump proposed budget to make big cuts to federal spending in 2026 on healthcare, education, housing, environmental and foreign aid programs, but to boost defence spending by 13%, and border security funding by 65%
-Trump space budget proposal seeks to cut key parts of NASA’s moon program, including a US$6bn reduction for the space agency’s 2025 budget
-US ended duty-free access for low-value shipments from China and HK, removing “de minimis” exemptions availed of by Shien, Temu and other e-commerce firms
+ Walmart, Target resume business with some Chinese factories after tariff-related halt
+ California’s nominal GDP reached US$4.1 trillion in 2024, overtaken Japan’s to become 4th largest in the world
-Apple’s sales in Greater China region fell 2.25% in Q1 to US$16bn, down from US$16.37bn YoY
+ Apple reported its best Jan-Mar period in >2 years, sales grew 5% to surpass US$95bn
-Trump’s tariff could cost Apple US$900m next qtr: Tim Cook
-Trump renewed threat to take away Harvard’s tax-exempt status
-Jeff Bezos plans to sell as much as US$4.8bn worth of Amazon stock
-McDonald’s reported 3.6% drop in US sane-store sales in Q1, steepest decline since beginning of Covid lockdowns in 2020
± Buffett to step down as Berkshire CEO at end year, would propose current Vice-Chair Greg Abel to take over
-Fitch Ratings revised its 2025 outlook for the global leveraged fiancé market segment to Deteriorating from Neutral
*CHINA*
+ MOFCOM: US conveys information to China on serval occasions, hoping to talk about tariffs; China is making assessments
-China’s manufacturing PMI falls back into contraction at 49.0 in Apr from 50.5, marking a 16-mth low
± China’s big 5 lenders reported narrower margins in Q1; as profits fell for some on slowing economy
+ China has created a list of US-made products that would be exempted from its 125% tariffs: sources
+ China is “evaluating” an offer from US to hold talks over Trump’s 145% tariffs; warns against “extortion”
+ China will roll out measures to keep its employment and economic performance stable and promote high-quality development
+ Chinese to adopt the private sector promotion law, to enable economic entities with diverse ownership structures to compete on level playing field
+ Chinese exporters have begun seeking new opportunities to tap into global markets, key to this are trade fairs; 2 major fairs – Canton Fair and CICPE; Canton Fair to reduce booth fees by 50% for export exhibitors
+ DeepSeek is being used to help with research and development of China’s most advanced warplanes: aerospace engineer
+ China produced over 87.24 tonnes of gold in Q1, up 1.28 tonnes or 1.49% YoY
+ China’s logistic volume hits ¥91 trillion (US$12.51 trillion) in Q1, up by 5.7% YoY
+ China anticipates 27% increase or 2.15m daily in border crossings during the 5-day May Day holidays
+ China’s marine tourism sector recorded robust growth in Q1 to ¥384.2bn (US$53.3bn)
+ China’s first seawater desalination project using thermal drainage form power plants puts into operation
+ China’s 2nd homegrown large cruise ship successfully completed its float-out
+ Tsinghua University has recruited a prominent US AI researcher Alex Lamb from Microsoft to join its newly established AI institution
-Temu stopped shipping directly from China to US
+ HK’s economy in Q1 increased 3.1% YoY, reaching a 5-qtr high
+ HKEX, SFC of HK engaged with certain companies on return intention of overseas-listed Chinese firms
+ HK stock connects southbound fund flows 2025 forecast raised from US$75bn to US$110bn: Goldman Sachs
*EUROPE*
+ Eurozone GDP up by 0.4% in Q1, doubling previous qtr’s pace
± Eurozone manufacturing output grew at fastest pace in just over 3 yrs in Apr to 49.0
-European companies expected to report a drop of 1.7% in Q1 earnings, on average: LSEG
+ German economy grew by 0.2% in Q1, contributed by consumption and investment
-German Manufacturing PMI Output rose to 48.4 in Apr vs 48.3 in Mar
-UK factory exports shrank at their sharpest pace in almost 5 years at 45.4 and cost pressure intensified in Apr
+ SCB net profit rose US$1.59bn or 13% in Q1, beats forecasts on wealth growth
+ Italian economy grew by 0.3% in Q1 MoM, up 0.6% on YoY basis
± France GDP rebounded slightly in Q1, with QoQ growth of 0.1% vs -0.1% in Q4 2024
+ Russia’s Gazprom posted net profit of US$14.7bn in FY 2024
+ DHL will restart global shipments worth >US$800 to US consumers
+ Ukraine-US signed mineral deal to share profits and royalties from future sale of Ukrainian minerals
*ASIA*
-Japan’s industrial production fell 1.1% MoM in Mar, vs 2.3% in Feb
-Ishiba: US auto tariff is absolutely unacceptable
-Japan seasonally adjusted Consumer Confidence Index decreased in Apr, down by 2.9 pts to 31.2
+ India’s manufacturing sector accelerated to 58.2 in Apr to it strongest pace in 10 mths as exports surge
+ India plans to scrap import tax on US ethane and liquefied petroleum gas: sources
+ Indonesia govt holding firm ambitious of 1m bpd oil production target by 2030
+ Malaysia to delay a planned expansion of its sales and service tax (SST) as manufacturers fear tariff hit
+ Sg ruling party PAS wins landslide victory, WP maintaining its 10 seats
-Sg PMI fell sharply in Apr to 49.6, steepest fall since Covid
+ Sg investors buy 2.5 tonnes of bullion in Q1, highest since 2010
-Sg about 55% of domestic exports to US will be affected by US’s 10% baseline tariff, 5% face higher product-specific tariffs, remaining 40% have been exempted
Contribution by Derek@valueinvestments chat group. Thank you.
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