Wolf Money(world market review 14-20 July 2025)
Market Summary 14-20 Jul 2025
*USA*
+ US annual inflation rate at 2.7% in Jun, highest since Feb, vs 2.4% in May, prices rose more for food, transportation services, used cars and trucks; CPI rose 0.3% on mthly basis, largest increase in 5 mths; core consumer prices rose by 0.2% MoM in Jun
+ US retail sales rose 0.6% MoM in Jun to reach US$720.1bn vs expectations of 0.1% gain
+ US Consumer Sentiment Index up 1.8% in Jul MoM to reach 61.8, highest in 5 mths
+ US year-ahead inflations expectations complied by survey of Uni of Michigan inched lower to 4.4% in Jul from 5% in Jun
+ Trump and Xi tipped to meet ahead of or during Apex summit in South Korea
+ US initial jobless claims fell 7000 from previous wk to 221,000 to 3-mth low
+ US producer prices unchanged in Jun from May, following upwardly revised 0.3% rise
+ US manufacturing output rose 0.1% in Jun, rises for 2nd mth; industrial production rose 0.3% vs expectations of 0.1% gain
+ US housing starts rose 4.6% to annualised rate of 1.321m in Jun, building permits up 0.2% to annualised rate of 1.397m
± US import prices up 0.1% in Jun, following 0.4% decline in May, exports rose 0.5% MoM following 0.6% decline in May
+ Nasdaq inched higher to its 5th straight new high
+ US crude oil inventories surged by 19.1m barrels in week ending July 11 at record high
± Trump plans to send a single letter to over 150 countries outlining tariff rate they will face, potentially between “10% or 15%”
± Trump urged Fed to slash interest rates to 1%, citing it would reduce fed borrowing costs and boost economic growth
+ Trump signed first federal bill to regulate stablecoins
+ US house passes 3 Crypto Bills, on path to cryptocurrencies becoming a bigger part of mainstream finance
-US imposed preliminary anti-dumping duties of 93.5% on Chinese graphite imports, key battery material
+ US net foreign acquisitions of long-term securities, short-term securities, and banking flows a net TIC inflow of US$311.1bn in May, included US$333.2bn in net private inflows, partially offset by US$22.1bn in net outflows
-Trump threatens 100% secondary tariffs on Russia if peace deal with Ukraine isn’t reached within 50 days
-Blackstone drops out of consortium bid for TikTok US: source
*SOUTH AMERICA"
-Brazil’s economy activity index fell 0.7% MoM in May, first contraction in 5 mths
*CHINA*
+ China’s GDP expanded 5.2% YoY in Q2, vs 5.4% in prior 2 qtrs
+ XI, Putin, and Trump may meet on Sept 3 during parade commemorating the 80th anniversary of conclusion WW2: The Times
+ China’s industrial production grew by 6.8% YoY in Jun, up from May’s 6-mth low of 5.8%
-China’s industrial capacity utilisation rate decreased to 74% in Q2, from 74.9% YoY, lowest since Q1 of 2020
+ China’s retail sales up 4.8% YoY in Jun, vs market expectations of 5.6% gain, slowest growth since Feb
± China’s surveyed jobless rate stood at 5% in Jun, unchanged from previous mth, lowest since Nov 2024
+ China’s fixed-asset investment rose by 2.8% YoY in H1; infrastructure investment up 4.6%, manufacturing up 7.5%, real estate investment declined 11.2%
+ Chin’s trade surplus widened to US$114.77bn in Jun, vs US$98.94bn a yr earlier; exports rose 5.8% YoY, imports up 1.1%
+ China’s trade surplus with US expanded to US$26.57bn in Jun, up from US$18bn in May
+ Chinese banks issued ¥2.24 trillion in new yuan loans in Jun, highest in 3 mths
-China’s new home prices in 70 cities decline by 3.2% YoY in Jun, marking 24th mth of contraction, but at slowest pace in 14 mths
+ China tightens exports rules to protect its lead in lithium battery tech
+ Huawei returns to the top of China’s mobile phone charts for first time in 4 years
+ Baidu teaming up with Uber to roll out Apollo Go robotaxis in Asia and ME later this year
+ China’s regulator summoned 3 top e-commerce platforms – Meituan, JDcom and Alibaba backed Eleme in bid to cool an escalating price war driven by aggressive subsidies
+ China pledged to contain “irrational” competition in EV sector, vowing strongemt cost investigations and price monitoring
± China’s youth jobless rate for 16-24 years old, excluding college students, fell to 14.5% in Jun from 14.9% in May, lowest in a year
+ China’s regulatory has conditionally approved Synopsys’s US$35bn acquisition of Ansys, placing strict requirement to curb ahti-competitive behaviour
+HK to build more subsidised homes in its new I&T hub near China border to meet middle-class demand
+ TSMC posts record quarterly profit on AI demand
*EUROPE*
-EU envoys are set to meet to formulate a plan to respond to a possible no-deal scenario with US tariffs
+ Eurozone industrial production rose 1.7% MoM in May, vs 2.2% fall in Apr
+ Eurozone current account surplus rose to €32bn in May, up from €19bn in Apr
+ Eurozone’s trade surplus at €16.2bn in May from €12.7bn a year earlier; exports up 0.1% to €216.9bn, imports at €203.8bn
+ Eurozone consumer price inflation confirmed at 2% YoY in Jun, vs May’s 8-mth low of 1.9%
-German producer prices dropped 1.3% YoY in Jun, following a 1.2% decline in May, down the most in 9 mths
+ Germany investor sentiment reaches highest since Feb 2022 at 52.7 in Jul
-UK regular pay excluding bonuses rose 5% YoY to £677 per week in 3 mths to May, lowest in nearly 3 years
*ASIA / OCEANIC*
-Australia’s jobless rate rose to 4.3% in Jun, highest since late 2021, consumer inflation expectation at 4.7% in Jul, down from Jun’s 2-year peak of 5%
-Japan’s ruling coalition likely to lose its majority in the upper house in Sunday’s election
+ Japan’s annual inflation eased to 3.3% in Jun from 3.5% in May, lowest in 7 mths; core consumer price index rose 3.3% YoY in Jun, slowdown for the first time since Feb
-Japan food prices rose 7.2% YoY in Jun, up from 6.5% in previous 2 mths, steepest pace since Mar
+ Japan’s imports up 0.2% YoY to ¥9,009.5bn in Jun, first increase in 3 mths, exports fell 0.5% to ¥9,162.6bn, down for 2nd mth; trade surplus ¥153.1bn below estimates
± Japan’s 10-year govt bond yield rose above 1.59%, hitting highest level since 2008
-Japan’s exports to US plunged 11.4% in Jun, 3rd monthly drop and steepest pace since Feb 2021
+ India’s CPI eased for 8th straight mth to 2.1% in Jun, lowest level since Jan 2019
-India passenger car sales dropped 6.3% YoY to 6-mth low of 275,766 units in Jun
+ Iran agrees to restart nuclear talks with European trio
*ASEAN*
+ ASEAN and China agreed to submit upgraded FTA known as version 3.0, to their leaders for approval in Oct
-Indonesia now face 19% tariff, down from 32%, as part of agreement, committed to purchasing US$15bn in US Energy, US$4.5bn in American Agricultural Products, 50 Boeing Jets: Trump
+ Indonesia cuts benchmark interest rate by 25bps to 5.25% at its July policy meeting
± Indonesia annual loan growth eased to 7.77% in Jun, slowest pace since Mar 2022
+ Vietnam targeting GDP growth of 8.3% to 8.5% this year
+ Malaysia’s economy expanded 4.5% YoY in Q2, vs 4.4% growth in previous period
+ Malaysia retail sales climbed 4.9% YoY in May, vs 4.7% in Apr
± Malaysia exports totalled RM121.72bn in Jun, down 3.5% YoY as shipments to China decline, imports up 1.2% YoY to RM113.13bn at 3-mth low
+ Sg GDP expanded 4.3% YoY in Q2, driven by gains across all clusters, except for chemicals and general manufacturing
+ Sg NODX surged 13% YoY in Jun, vs upwardly revised 3.9% decline in May
-Sg GDP expanded 4.3% in Q2, due to front-loaded exports ahead of new US tariffs, growth expected to slow in H2 : MAS
Contribution by Derek@valueinvestments chat group. Thank you.
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