Wolf Money(world market review 7-13 July 2025)
Market Summary 7-13 July 2025
*USA*
+ Fed most officials considered a reduction in fed funds rate likely to be appropriate at some point this year
-Trump administration official suggested that Jerome Powell is reportedly considering resigning
+ US consumer inflation expectations for the year ahead declined to 3% in Jun, from 3.2% in May, lowest in 5 mths
+ US initial jobless claims fell 5000 from pervious wk to 227,000, 4th consecutive decline to lowest count in 7 weeks
+ US govt recorded a US$27bn budget surplus in Jun, receipts totalled US$526.4bn, driven largely by individual income taxes and social insurance contributions
± Trump urged Fed Reserves to slash interest rates by at least 3%
-Fed minutes show little support for interest rate cut late this mth
-Trump again extended deadline to seal country-by-country trade agreements until Aug 1
-Trump threatened to impose additional 10% tariff on any country which “aligns itself” with BRICS
-Trump announces 30% tariffs on goods from EU and Mexico, 35% tariff on Canada, 25% on imports from Japan n South Korea
-Trump threatened Brazil with 50% tariff, ordered an investigation into alleged unfair trade practices that could lead to higher duties
-Trump announced a new 50% tariff on copper starting Aug 1, aimed at boosting domestic output
± US consumer credit rose by US$5.1bn in May, vs US$10.17bn increase in Apr and well below market expectations of an US$11bn
+ US major banks expected to report stronger profits next wk, driven by buoyant trading and modest rebound in investment banking
-US announced a ban on farmland purchasing for Chinese nationals and “other foreign adversaries”, citing security and protection farmland ownership
-US crude oil inventories rose by 7.07m barrels in week ended July 4, biggest rise since Jan
+ Nvidia hit US$4 trillion capitalisation for the first time; could launch a new AI-based chip for Chinese market in Sept
+ Tesla has applied to test its robotaxi in Phoenix, Arizona
-Apple appealed the €500bn fine imposed by EU for alleged violation of Digital Markets Act
*SOUTH AMERICA / OTHERS*
+ Brazil, China signed MOU to study a transcontinental railroad connecting Peru’s Pacific coast with Brazil’s Atlantic coast
+ Mexico’s car exports surged 14% YoY in Jun to 331,517 units, vs 2.9% drop in May, led by strong growth from GM (+56.4)
± IEA trims oil demand forecast for 2025, 2026
+ Bitcoin exceeds US$118,000 for the first time
*CHIINA*
+ China’s economy will exceed ¥149 trillion or US$19.5 trillion this year: state planner
± China warned US against reigniting trade tensions by reinstating tariffs next mth, threatened retaliation against countries align with US to exclude China from supply chains
+ China’s foreign exchange reserves rose by US$32.2bn to US$3.317 trillion in Jun, vs US$3.285 trillion in May, highest level since Dec 2015
+ China’s CPI rose 0.1% YoY in Jun, rise for the first time in 5 mths
± China’s food prices fell by 0.3% YoY in Jun, marking 5th straight monthly decline
-China’s producer prices fell 3.6% in Jun, marked the 33rd consecutive mth of producer deflation and steepest fall since Jul 2023
+ China unveiled new measures to stablise employment, including expanded social insurance subsidies, special loans, targeted support for young ppl looking for jobs; jobless rate for age 16-24 exclude college students at 14.9% in Jun
+ China considering doubling quota of Southbound Bond Connect program to ¥1 trillion; regulators are discussing new ¥500bn annual allocation specifically for non-bank financial institutions like mutual funds and insurers
+ China to issue ¥6bn in sovereign bonds in Macau, the 4th consecutive year of such issuance
+ China’s automobile production and sales reached 15.62m and 15.65m units, marking YoY up 12.5% and 11.4% in H1
-China has taken measures to crack down on strategic mineral transhipment: MOFCOM
+ Chinese companies buying more mines globally than they have in over a decade to secure key raw materials: FT
+ China, South Africa banks seal first yuan loan deal worth ¥2.1bn to boost African development
+ Huawei has drawn up plans to redesign next release of its AI chip to rival Nvidia
+ Xiaomi’s auto deliveries of SU7 model surpassed 300,000 units since launch back in Mar 2025
+ Shein filed a draft prospectus for an IPO with HKEX and sought approval of CSRC
+ HK foreign reserves increased to US$431.9bn in Jun, highest level since Jan 2023
+ Taiwan imports rose 17.3% to US$41.26bn, exports jumped 33.7% YoY to US$53.32bn; inflation slowed to 1.37% in Jun, lowest since Mar 2021
*EUROPE*
-EU delaying retaliatory tariffs on US goods in hopes of reaching a trade deal with US by Aug 1
-Eurozone retail sales fell by 0.7% MoM in May, steepest decline since Aug 2023
+ EU will propose a new tax on companies with a net turnover >€50m to boost budget
-Europe is “losing” economic competition with its main rivals, China and US, and is struggling with shortage of globally competitive companies: JPMorgan CEO
+ EU population hits record 450m on another migration boost
+ EU completed final steps for Bulgaria to become 21st member of euro zone from Jan 2026
-Germany’s debt expected to increase to 74% of GDP by 2030 from 62.5% in 2024 due to increase in defense and infrastructure spending
+ Germany’s upper parliamentary chamber approved €46bn package tax reductions; include cutting corporate tax rate from 15% to 10%, 75% depreciation of EV purchase price, limiting rents to 10% above local average in certain areas, rise in defense spending
+ Germany annual inflation rate fell to 2% in Jun, lowest in 8 mths
+ Germany wholesale prices rose 0.9% YoY in Jun, the most in 3 mths
+ Germany’s trade surplus widened to €18.4bn in May; exports declined 1.4% MoM to 4-mth low of €129.4bn in May, exports to US fell 7.7% at lowest level since Mar 2022
-UK economy contracted 0.1% MoM in May following a 0.3% fall in Apr, down for 2nd mth
-UK industrial production fell 0.9% MoM in May from 0.6% drop in Apr
-France’s trade deficit widened slightly to €7.8bn in May, largest trade gap since last Sept
-France’s current account deficit widened sharply to €3.1bn in May, from €1bn same mth previous year
+ Russian ruble surged to 2-year high against US dollar
*ASIA / OCEANIA*
+ Australia PM Albanese to visit China to deepen cooperation on AI, green energy and digital economy
-Japan unlikely to offer concessions to the US for an automobile deal despite US plans to raise tariffs on Japanese imports
+ Japan’s current account surplus rose to ¥3,436.4bn in May from ¥2,949.5bn a year earlier, above estimates
+ Japan producer prices rose 2.9% in Jun, lowest producer inflation since Aug 2024
-Japan’s machine tool orders fell for the first time in 9 mths
± Japan PM urged less US dependence in such key areas as security, food and energy
+ Saudi Arabia hiked Jun oil output due to geopolitical tensions
-Indonesia car sales slumped 22.6% YoY to 57,752 units in Jun, following a 15.1% drop in May
-Thailand consumer confidence index dropped to 52.7 in Jun, 5th consecutive monthly decline and lowest level since Feb 2023
+ Vietnam’s GDP expanded 7.96% YoY in Q2, vs 6.93% rise in Q1, fastest pace since Q3 2022
-Vietnam to implement stricter penalties to combat trade fraud and illegal transshipment, particularly targeting Chinese goods
-Vietnam imposed anti-dumping levy of up to 27.83% on certain hot-rolled coil steel products origination from China
+ Malaysia lowered its benchmark interest rate by 25bps to 2.75%
+ Malaysia’s jobless rate dropped to 3% in May from 3.3% YoY, lowest since Apr 2015
+ Malaysia Industrial production rose 0.3% YoY in May vs 2.7% increase in Apr
+ DPM Gan to visit US for trade talks; new grant of up to S$100,000 for tariff-hit businesses
± Sg forex reserves fell to S$515.78bn in Jun from 3-year high of S$518.08bn in May, driven by decreases in gold and foreign exchange, IMF reserve position
+ Sg ranked top shipping centre in the world for the 12th year running on 2025: ISCDI
Contribution by Derek@valueinvestments chat group. Thank you.
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