Wolf Money(world market review 28 July-3 Aug 2025)

 

(Image credit: Goalcast)

Market Summary 28 Jul – 3 Aug 2025

*USA*

± Fed has left monetary policy unchanged with target rate range remaining at 4.25-4.5%  

-US added 73,000 jobs in Jul vs expectations of 110,000, gains were almost by 2 industries: healthcare n social assistance: BLS 

-US did not add 144,000 and 147,000 jobs in May and Jun, instead only added 19,000 and 14,000 jobs respectively, numbers are lower the needs to keep up with population growth: BLS 

-Trump fired BLS Commissioner over data

-US jobless rate rose slightly to 4.2% in Jul from 4.1% in Jun, number up by 221,000 to 7.236m

-US labour force shrank for the 3rd straight mth, dragged down by exodus of foreign-born workers due to strict immigration policies  

+ US private business added 104,000 jobs in Jul, strongest gain since Mar, vs market expectations of 75,000 increase 

± US PCE price rose 0.3% or US$69.9 MoM in Jun after an upwardly revised 0.2% gain in May 

+ US year-ahead inflation expectations dropped to 5-mth low of 4.5% in Jun, well below May’s 6.6%

-US Manufacturing PMI stood at 49.8 in Jul, failing from Jun’s 52.9  

-US manufacturing contracted for 5th straight mth in Jul; ISM manufacturing PMI down to 48 from 49 in Jun

± US labour costs rise slightly above expectations in Q2; Employment Cost Index rose 0.9%   

± Fed 2 officials calling for rate cuts, another Fed governor announced leaving even though her term is not over

-US 10-year Treasury note plunged nearly 20bps from session highs of 4.25%, testing lowest in 3 mths  

+ US consumer sentiment index at 61.7 in Jul to its highest level since Feb 2025

-US housing market posted worst spring season in 13 years, traditionally the busiest season in real estate 

+ Trump has paused major technology export restrictions to China: FT 

-Trump demands drugmakers to lower prices within 60 days

± Boeing’s Q2 revenue up 35% to US$22.75bn, net loss improved from US$1.44bn YoY to US$612m

-ExxonMobil CEO urged Trump to counter EU regulations imposed on US companies 

± Google denies rumours it is resuming full services on Chinese mainland 

-Tesla Jul registrations of new cars in several key European markets fell in Jul 

± Berkshire Hathaway reports Q2 revenue of US$92.5bn, down 1.2% YoY, net earnings attributable to shareholders plunged 59.2% YoY to US$12.4bn; takes US$3.8bn Kraft Heinz write-down  

+ OpenAi secured another US$8.3bn in latest funding round at US$300bn valuation 

*CHINA*

-China official manufacturing PMI slowed to 49.3 in Jul to reach 3-mth low 

-China’s S&P Global General Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.5 in Jul from 50.4 in Jun 

-China will crack down on “herd behaviour” in investment in emerging sectors and tighten oversight of local govts investment promotions 

+ China vowed to intensify its crackdown on “involution”, pledging to curb disorderly corporate competition, wasteful investment  

-China has paused approvals for corporate outbound investments into US since Apr, even from projects <US$300m threshold, which don’t require national approval 

-Chinese exports to US could fall by close to half-trillion dollars (S$485bn) between now and 2027: tariffs simulator  

± China will conduct review and regulation in accordance with the law regarding CK Hutchison’s port sale: MOFCOM 

-China CAC summoned Nvidia to address serious security concerns over ‘backdoor’ risks in its H20 Ai chips 

+ China revealed typical of hidden debt accountability, to strengthen fiscal discipline and crack down on illegal borrowing 

+ China’s ton-level eVTOL aircraft completed first offshore material transport to an oil platform 

+ China’s market regulator revealed guidelines on online platform fee, calling for reduced burden on merchants 

+ China reported surged of 40% in cruise passenger throughput during H1 

± BYD’s Jul production fell for the first time in 17 mths, down 0.9% YoY; sales edged up 0.6% vs 12% increase in Jun  

+ JDcom to acquire German electronics giant Ceconomy operating 1030 stores in 11 European countries in US$2.4bn deal 

+ Huawei reclaims China smartphone sale crown, shipped >12m handsets in China or 18% of the market 

+ China’s gaming industry surged in H1, posted its fastest growth in 5 yrs, generated US$23bn in revenue, up 14.1% YoY 

-HK home prices flat for 2nd mth in Jun, prices have dropped 0.9% this year to their lowest since 2016

+ HK seeking ways to ease capital transfer rules from mainland professional buying property 

*EUROPE*

+ European banks remain resilient even under a severe hypothetical economic downturn; stress test released by EBA 

-Eurozone HCOB Manufacturing PMI edged up to 49.8 in Jul from 49.5 in Jun, reaching highest level since Jul 2021 

-European carmakers will see weaker profits in 2025 due to rising tariffs and growing competition from China: Fitch 

+ ECB: Chinese trade diversion from US would cut euro zone inflation: ECB blog 

+ Airbus to open 2nd assembly line in China before end 2025; Q2 revenue up 0.45% to €16bn 

-Germany’s leading carmakers set to lose >€10bn in cash flow this year due to US trade tariffs: FT 

-BMW’s revenue in Q2 declined 8.2% YoY to €33.93bn, net profit fell 31.9% to €1.84bn 

-Mercedes-Benz Gp’s Q2 revenue down 9.5% at €33.2bn, net income at €957m, vs €3.1bn same 3-mth period a year prior   

+ Standard Chartered reported operating income of US$5.5bn in Q2

-Switzerland stunned by US 39% tariff hike, manufacturers say tens of thousands of jobs at risk 

-Russian imposed full ban on gasoline exports, extending to all petroleum product manufacturers, effect Jul 29 until end Aug or Sep

*ASIA*

-Japanese Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI Index at 48.9 in Jul vs 50.1 in Jun 

-Japanese firms profit likely to fall due to US tariffs, leading to downgrade capital expenditure plans: BOJ 

-India to maintain Russian oil imports despite Trump threats: govt sources 

-Samsung’s Q2 operating profit down 55% to US$3.37bn 

+ Thailand rewrites EV subsidy program to encourage carmakers to export, as domestic market is suffering from overcapacity 

+ Thai baht rises to highest since 2022 on trade optimism, inflows; Global funds have poured a net US$345m into country equities in Jul, first monthly inflow in 10 mths 

+ Malaysian pharmaceuticals, semiconductors exempt from US tariffs: Minister 

+ Johor proposed 2nd RTS2 link to connect Iskandar Puteri n Tuas in to improve cross-border connectivity

-Sg Manufacturing PMI edged down to 49.9 in Jul vs 50.0 in Jun, slipping back into contraction territory 

+ MTI confirms Singapore remains subject to 10% baseline tariff on exports to US

± Sg left its monetary policy unchanged Wednesday after two consecutive rounds of easing

± OCBC Q2 profit fell 7% to S$1.82bn, trimmed full-year NIM guidance 

+ GIC leads bidding for stake in Spanish broadband JV: sources 

Contribution by Derek@valueinvestments chat group. Thank you.

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