Wolf Money(world market review 8-14 Sept 2025)
Market Summary 8-14 Sept 2025
*USA*
± US annual inflation rate accelerated to 2.9% in Aug, vs Jul’s 2.7%, highest since Jan, in line with expectation
± US annual core CPI remained stable at 3.1% in Aug, up 0.3% MoM, in line with market expectations
± US year-ahead inflation expectations stood at 4.8% in Sept, 5-year inflation outlook reaching 3-mth high of 3.9% in Aug
-US Consumer Sentiment Index down by 4.8% MoM in Sept to reach 55.4 pts to 4-mth low
-US Bureau for Labor Statistics acknowledged it overestimated employment by 911,000 in the 12-mth to Mar 2025; created only 847,000; largely by overestimates in retail, hospitality, business services
-US could be forced to refund ‘about half’ of tariffs if SCOTUS rules against Trump: Bassent
-Trump may declare a national housing emergency, citing rising prices and dwindling supply: Bassent
-US services inflation held at 3.8% for 3rd consecutive mth in Aug, highest level since Feb, up 0.2% on monthly basis
± US producer prices fell 0.1% MoM in Aug, first decline in 4 mths, cost for services down 0.2%, largest drop since Apr
-US food inflation picked up to 3.2% in Aug at near 2-yr high
-US jobless claims surged by 27,000 to 263,000 on first wk Sept, the most since Oct 2021
± US 10-yr Treasury hovered around 4.03%, staying near 5-mth low
+ US average rate on 30-yr fixed mortgage backed by Freddie Mac down 15bps to 6.49% from previous wk, down the most in a yr
+ US mortgage applications rose by 9.2% from previous wk, easing ddrop from 3 consecutive wks
-US health officials plan to link Covid vaccines to the death of 25 children: Washington Post
± US Treasury Secretary Bassent will meet Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng in Madrid next week
± US-China, on Aug 11, agreed to extend their tariff truce by another 90 days
-US weighing “serve restrictions” on growing flow of drugs from China; draft executive order being circulate to pharmaceutical firms and investors accuses China “and other hostile actors” of exploiting gaps in US scientific and regulatory systems
-US urged G7 countries to impose steep tariffs on China and India for buying Russian oil
-Trump says prepared to impose fresh sanctions on Russia if all NATO nations stop buying Russian oil, implement similar measures
-US added 32 entities to restrict trade list, including 23 from China
-Trump said his administration will be probing George Soros over his alleged funding of mass riots in US
*SOUTH AMERICA*
-Mexico plans to impose tariffs up to 50% on cars and other products made by China and several Asian exporters; bill submitted targets >1400 categories of goods worth US$52bn, including vehicles, auto parts, steel, textiles, toys, appliances, footwear
*CHINA*
-China’s Consumer Price Index down 0.4% YoY in Aug, the fastest pace in 6 mths; Core inflation up 0.9% in Aug
-China’s PPI dropped 2.9% YoY in Aug, vs 3.6% decline in previous mth
± China launched anti-discrimination and dumping probes into US trade policy over chips ahead of trade talks
+ China Aug exports rose 4.4% YoY to US$321.9bn, imports up 1.3% to US$219.5bn in USD terms, trade surplus roe to US$102.33bn
-China’s exports to US plunged 33% YoY in Aug, imports also down 16%; US remained China’s largest trading partner on single-country basis
+ China’s exports to EU, ASEAN, Africa surged 10.4%, 22.5% and nearly 26% in Aug, respectively
± China’s exports of rare earths rose on monthly basis to US$55m in Aug, up from US$41m in Jul, but down 25.6% YoY
+ China’s onshore yuan closes at strongest level in 10 mths
+ China’s car sales up 16.4% YoY to 2.857m units in Aug, sales of NEVs surged 26.8% YoY to 1.395m, accounting for 48.8%
-China new yuan loans rose by ¥589bn in Aug, the lowest amount of new yuan loans for the mth since 2011
+ China officially approved imports Brazilian sorghum, with shipments potentially starting this year
+ China will push for the formal signing protocol on upgrading China-ASEAN FTA version 3.0 by end 2025: Vice Commerce Minister
+ PBOC extends currency swap accords with ECB, Swiss, Hungarian central banks
+ China’s Jan-Aug railway fixed-asset investment expands 5.6%
+ China approved 2-year pilot reforms for market-based allocation of production factors in 10 regions
+ China to launch a 3-mth campaign to crack down on false marketing n other online irregularities in automotive sector
-China warned Mexico against its proposed tariff hike of Asia-made vehicles, particularly Chinese cars from 20% to 50%
+ China stocks at new decade-high, see largest monthly net buying in Aug since Sept 2024, HK shares hit 4-year peak on AI optimism
+ China’s auto production, sales both surpass 20m units for the first time from Jan-Aug
± China targeting 32.3m in vehicles sales in 2025, below 32.9m units projected by CAAM
+ China’s luxury automaker Hongqi to launch 15 models in Europe by 2028
+ Nio to raise nearly US$8.1bn through share sale, 2nd time in 6 mths
+ BYD to start Hungary EV plant by end 2025
+ HK govt will continue to prioritise land development, with >30,000 public housing units to be completed annually over next 5 yrs
*EUROPE*
+ EU Commission President announced package worth €1.8bn to boost battery production in Europe
+ ECB kept it 3 key interest rates unchanged; deposit facility 2%, refinancing rate 2.15%, marginal lending rate at 2.4%
+ Airbus to double A320 family production capacity in China
-Volkswagen CEO: US tariffs have cost its company several billions of euros so far
-France PM has resigned after losing confidence vote in parliament, leaving it without a govt
+ Russia trade surplus widens in Jul to US$13.2bn in Jul, the first widening trade balance since Feb
+ Russia and China planning clearinghouse to avoid West: Moscow
*ASIA*
-Australia’s ANZ to cut 3500 jobs as new CEO takes charge
-Japan’s industrial production index down by 1.2% in Jul, landing at 102.1
+ Japan’s producer prices rose 2.7% YoY in Aug, in line with expectations
+ Japan’s Business Survey Index for large manufacturing firms rose to 3.8% in Q3, highest level since Q4 2024
+ Japanese goods including cars and auto parts tariffs to US are set to be lowered by 16 Sept
+ India weighing a broad support package for exporters hit by US tariffs
+ India’s GDP growth forecast for FY2025-26 upgraded from 6.5% to 6.9% by Fitch
+ India tweaks IPO rules to allow easier listing for big firms
+ South Korea announced not to proceed with changes to capital gains tax on stock investments
+ Indonesia govt to give IDR200 trillion (US$12.15bn) of state funds into 6 banks to increase liquidity to boost liquidity
+ Bank Indonesia and China Central Bank launched a local currency settlement framework, QR code connectivity
-Indonesia seizes land from Chinese-backed Weda Bay Nickel in mining crackdown
-Thailand consumer confidence index dropped to 50.1 in Aug from 51.7 in Jul, 7th straight mth of decline and lowest since Dec 2022
+ Vietnam to permit companies to import gold for the first time in a decade
+ Malaysia industrial production expanded 4.2% YoY in Jul, hits 7-mth high, driven by faster rises in manufacturing output
+ Malaysia retail sales increased by 5.6% YoY in Jul, vs 5.4% in Jun
± Malaysia 10-yr Govt Bond Yield decreased to 3.36%, the lowest since Oct 2021
+ Sg tax revenue up 10.7% at S$88.9bn in FY 2025 on robust growth and higher consumption
+ Sg plans to unveil a “value unlock” package this year to boost interest in stock market: Minister
+ SGX to launch index that tracks listcos beyond STI
± Sg 10-yr Govt Bond Yield decreased to 1.76%, the lowest since Feb 2022
*~~ will be away for short period, no summary next 1-2 weeks ~~*
Contribution by Derek@valueinvestments chat group. Thank you.
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