Wolf Money(portfolio update end March 2026) part 2
The Singapore Spirit
I would like to join my fellow Singaporeans in praising the RSAF for a job well done. It takes all the skills and bravery of our servicemen and women to pull off the dangerous repatriation operation to the Middle East. The rescue has the making of a Hollywood movie, but this was no Hollywood movie, the danger of getting caught in a crossfire was real. The government has sent 2 round trips using a Multi-Role Tanker Transporter, in short MRTT, for the rescue. It is one of the most advanced refueling transportation planes in the world. It comes with radar avoidance and stealth capabilities. I have been on one of these planes before. The interior of the plane is no different from an Airbus A330. I am not here to be an Airbus salesman. I would like to show my admiration to the RSAF aircrew for putting themselves in harms way to rescue our fellow Singaporeans stranded in a war zone. The RSAF professionalism is 2nd to none. Singapore as a global citizen of the world never forget our friends from other countries too. We took them to safety in time of need. It is this kind of goodwill that is lacking in the world now which renders this art of kindness extraordinary. I will like to make an appeal to my government to award the crew members of RSAF A330 MRTT with the Star of Temasek for their bravery at the National Day celebrations.
Many have asked, what is the Singapore spirit? It is something that you can’t see, but you know it is there somewhere. The Singaporean Spirit has a face now, a government which leaves no Singaporean behind during a crisis. Together as a nation, we ought to be proud of ourselves. Unity is our strength. We can definitely afford a little time for fellow drivers on the road who need to cut our lane. We can definitely be kind to an old lady unknowingly jumped queue. We can certainly make an extra effort to know our friends from other races and religions. We can show patience to our neighbours’ kids playing loudly. We must be generous with praise and encouragement for others. All for that one reason. We are Singaporean and it must mean something to be one. God Bless.
Portfolio as at end of March 2026
1.) Cash
3.) Tai Sin Electric
4.) Grab Holdings
*Stocks are not rank in accordance to capital invested.
Commentary
The situation in the Middle East is in a mess. I wouldn’t bet my last dollar for the crisis to end anytime soon. The conflict is a deadly concoction of ideology and religion that has the potential to manifest into World War 3. Is it wise to believe a few thousand missiles is going to change the entrenched ideology of another country? With so many countries getting sucked into the war because of some selfish individuals, the environmental and social costs are going to be enormous. Common sense and critical judgment are lacking here. The war ultimately increases the risk of a serious terror attack much sinister than the Sept 11. I hope cool heads to prevail. This war has no winner and all of us are losers of the war. I hope leadership can come from countries that are not involved in the war. It is no longer about sitting around the arena to watch a show. I pray for those people who have lost their loved ones in the war to find solace and comfort in God. God Bless.
After the punishing March. Many realised, the stock market can fall like “no one has seen before”(borrowing Trump’s metaphor), sometimes by a huge percentage. The market has been conditioned on buying the dip. Buying the dip sometimes can be foolhardy. I have no idea how this war is going to end with the Iranians and the Israeli going at each other’s throats. Optimistically, the war may end in months. The worst case will be a long-drawn guerrilla warfare in the Middle East lasting decades. Crude has been weaponised during this conflict. The price of crude is likely to stay high due to supply disruption and damaged oil infrastructure which will take years to bring the oil back online. My guess 10-15% of Middle East oil infrastructures had been destroyed during the war so far. The East-West pipeline in Saudi Arabia remains one of the most important lifelines of Middle Eastern crude exports with 5 to 7 millions barrels of oil pass through the petroline, drawing crude from the volatile Persian Gulf to the Red Sea for export. Damage to the pipeline will send oil prices towards the $150 level.
Lone Wolf Fund suffered a drawdown of 1.5% in March due to the conflict in the Middle East. Grab contributed to the major weakness. I give no excuse for the timing of my entry into Grab, it could be better. I continue to like the company for its business. They are trading at their lowest valuation since listing 5 years ago. Grab was down close to 30% year to date. It would have been a lot worse for LWF. Position sizing helps save the day.
Tai Sin and Hotel Grand Central did better for LWF with both experiencing slight gain. YTD, Lone Wolf Fund was down 1% (excluding dividends and cash yield). The fund is back to the drawing board after a choppy 1Q26.
Tai Sin Electric
I had a small increase in Tai Sin Electric. The recent jump in oil prices will push consumers towards buying electric vehicles. The growth in the EV population will spur demand for charging stations. Our grid is in need of a serious upgrade as the systems are not built for fast charging. Tai Sin is the leader in electric cable in Singapore. The company should have good growth over the next 5 years as Singapore undergoes major infrastructure improvements and new developments. The price of copper is showing weakness. A potential recession might cause demand disruption, thus lower copper price in the short term. Copper and other industrial commodities in general will stay high in the longer term due to demand from the Middle East for future reconstruction and data centre. A lower copper price will be helpful to Tai Sin Electric. Tai Sin Electric is my closest response to an indirect oil play. From charging stations to data centres to infrastructure developments. Tai Sin provides the arteries to power our economy. The company’s CEO has been buying shares in the open market at 51c-51.5c. Shares were unaffected by poor sentiment in the market. The shares were higher even after turning xd during the course of the month. LWF received dividends during the month. CGSI, in a recent research report gave a glowing report on Tai Sin. I will leave the link below for those who are interested.
https://rfs.cgsi.com/api/download?file=c4070642-5b6d-41b9-8db8-6f30e06553f7
Grab
Grab shares were under pressure due to the rising oil price. The higher oil prices have many impacts on its business. The rise in fuel surcharge by airlines will curb tourism. Grab app is seen as an essential travel app in ASEAN. Secondly, the higher fuel price is causing a drop in income for drivers. It might make driving Grab a less profitable profession. The higher inflation causing consumers cutbacks on public travelling. On the flip side, with the tightening of economic conditions, more people may seek alternative employment by making Grab driving as one of the alternatives in a worsening job market. The private transport sector is experiencing a shortage of drivers. There will be growth in financial services given the deteriorating economic environment as more people borrow to keep their head above water. Advertising will be another growth area. Restaurants requiring more footfall may choose to advertise more on the Grab platform.
LWF is biting the bullet on short-term volatility in Grab. There was a small increase in holdings during the month. I am taking the view that oil wouldn’t reach USD $200. If it does, I don’t think Grab will be the only company affected. The rest of the market will be under pressure too. Grab had signed a deal to buy Foodpanda Taiwan from Delivery Hero for USD $600m. The price seems reasonable given Foodpanda Taiwan is profitable. Just over a year ago, they were selling themselves in a failed USD $950m deal with Uber Eats. It is the first time Grab is expanding out of their main market in South East Asia. Grab has spent close to USD $1b on buying related businesses this year. The Panda deal was hot on the heels after the purchase of Stash Financial in US. Grab is holding gross cash close to USD 7.5b and a net cash of USD $5.3b. Even after the recent purchases. Grab should have around USD 4b in net cash. Those capital, if deployed carefully, will bring Grab onto a higher profit profile.
Grab in a recent announcement indicated they are going to accelerate their stock repurchase programme. Up to $400m worth of shares will be repurchased over the next 4 months. This is a welcoming news for shareholders. The company’s shares have been under pressure since the start of this year. This action may help put a floor on the share price.
Hotel Grand Central
I know the company has always been undervalued, but I never took an interest in them until now. The independent report written by my friend sparked my interest. The rise in AUD against the Singapore dollar and potential upswing in their business is a tailwind for them. Since the AUD hit a low of 81c at the same time last year, it has been gaining strength against the SGD. Now SGD 0.89c buys a dollar in AUD. I have written a report recently on HGC. You may refer to the write up here.
Cash
I left most of my capital untouched for future deployment. There are FD promotions at a higher rate offer by the banks. I took on a 3 months FD at 1.58% recently. Holding cash in the short term have become attractive again due to the heighten risk in the market and the rising risk-free rate.
Summary
I am taking my time to look at what bargains are available. Beside a small increase in Tai Sin, Grab and the last min purchase of Hotel Grand Central I don’t think the market is a screaming buy given this war doesn’t have a deadline. A USD $200 oil price will definitely cause huge pressure on the economy and the stock market.
The private credit/equity markets need closer attention; any further deterioration may lead to a crisis in confidence in those assets. Market report cited that the market is worth 1.5T to 2T. With the squeeze in liquidity, investors will be rushing out of those assets. Low liquidity in those assets makes it close to impossible to exit at a fair price.
The oil market is likely to stay bubbly, even if there is a ceasefire agreement. Many oil infrastructures have been destroyed during the conflict and supplies are going to stay tight until oil production can resume. Iran has played their last card on strangling Middle Eastern crude export through the blockade of Straits of Hormuz. It will also signal, the start of the diminishing importance of Middle Eastern oil and Strait of Hormuz. Demand for Middle Eastern crude will drop as countries find alternative sources of energy. The transition into EV will cut demand for petrol substantially. I always thought petrol as a feedstock for cars is a waste of resources. Pipelines will be built to bypass The Strait of Hormuz. Oman will play a critical role due to their strategic location outside the strait.
I remain concerned with the market, even though I wouldn’t rule out a quick recovery for the market. The only way for the oil price to come down is to demand 50% equity for those buying oil options. There is a fair amount of speculative money in the future market which increases the volatility. In the stock market, value is still lacking. Until value reappears in God’s good time, we can undertake to learn more about the companies in our market. Until in God’s good time when the New World decided to save the Old World from its own destruction. God Bless. 🙏
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