Wolf Money(Short War Note)
After observing the news out of The Middle East War over the past few days, I am no wiser about the war than most people. I seriously thought Trump might consider the 250 years of the founding of America to be an important year for peace, apparently not! This is a silly war that should never be fought. A group of countries which have everything to lose against a country which has nothing to lose? How does that sound? It takes just 3 Iranian drones a day to attack the countries involved to cause a permanent damage to their tourism and economy. The American military doesn’t have the time to dig in for long. The pressure will come when oil-induced inflation causes hardship to the American public. The US government can use the strategic oil reserve to prevent a huge climb in gas prices, but it can’t go on forever.
“Country X” has a small land mass. The constant bombardment will caused the country to go back few decades of development and a substantial increase in debt to rebuild. The debt burden literally relinquishes sovereignty to the US.
The call for peace is likely to come from people who have started it as public pressure mounted. The Iranian has time, but the Western election cycle is short.
Investment wise, I don’t find any bargain in the market as corrections were smaller than anticipated. If there is anything which is going to spark my interest. I will relook at my current portfolio stocks for inspiration first. Caution is warranted since no one can predict how long this conflict will last. It is best not to do anything than to do something that one doesn’t understand. One thing for certain, don’t expect the countries who started the war to clean up the mess. Biggest winners: China, Russia, ASEAN and Africa. Major losers: include The US, Europe and The Middle East especially the GCC.
I am starting to see a slowdown in our local economy. Malls are increasingly deserted given it was the first weekend of the payday week. Those who wish to travel may want to book your tickets early before a huge increase in fuel surcharge. A small stock up of daily essentials might also help to reduce potential pricey groceries. Inflation is unlikely to come down at least for the next 6 to 12 months.
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