Wolf Money(Year end 2021 portfolio review)
Lone Wolf Fund(LWF)
Portfolio as at end of December
2.) Cash
Test case
3.) GRAB Holdings (excluded from LWF)- Test case for new/big tech investing
Commentary
The Singapore Straits Times Index close the year with a 9.5 percentage return. Given the low base last year, it was a gain much needed but it failed to draw my inspiration. S&P return close to 26 percent for 2021. Keppel Corp continue its underperformed against the broader market. The stock was down more than 5 percent since the start of this year.
This year had been a year of two half for me. LWF was flat in Dec. LWF did better than general market return in 2021. I estimate LWF give a return slightly more than 15 percent for the whole year. The major contributor of the gain came from Boustead Singapore. I am delighted to put my capital to work in the company. Boustead Singapore is the shining example how a listed company should be run. I have no doubt the company will reach new height in the future with the stewardship of Mr. Wong Fong Fu. The second half was more challenging in term of identifying potential undervalued company to put my capital to work. I am generally more caution given the stock market had a good run since the start of the covid pandemic. Keppel Corp was identified as a good home for my capital. The potential of the company had yet to be fulfilled. One can only be hopeful management will be able to step up to the plate to realise Keppel’s potential with good divestment and reinvesting the proceeds wisely into growth area like renewable energy. I do think Keppel Corp shareholders deserve a better outcome for their investment after close to a decade of share price underperformance. Keppel Corp will be reporting its full year earning towards end January 2022. FY 2021 result and dividend are likely to be better than FY 2020. The million dollar question, how much better? I will be looking for detail of Keppel O&M and Sembmarine merger. Keppel Corp during the past year made close to 3B divestment. They received close to 2B cash by end of 2021. Divestment is likely to be the main corporate action in 2022 for the company. Green energy investment is likely to be the main thrust of Keppel’s 2030 vision.
I had vested a very tiny portion of my investable fund into Singapore Nasdaq listed GRAB Holdings. This is the first time I am taking a leap of faith into the unknown. As readers of my blog had known me to be a value investor. The ridiculous valuation in some new tech are in conflict with my value investing thought process. GRAB is down $4 usd from pre spac price. I have learn a lot from my cameo in new tech investing. SPAC listings had been mostly underwater. Close to 60 percent of the new SPACs listing is trading below their pre SPAC price. That is something to take note for SGX upcoming SPAC initiative. What a joke! Of course that joke happens to be on me. A lesson learned on SPAC investing. I had been wrong a few times on big tech. I had a chance to buy Facebook at $24 dollars, I didn’t take the chance. I had another chance to buy Tesla at $150 I didn’t take it. I had a chance to buy Netflix at $250, I didn’t take it. I was not entirely convinced those company could turn in a profit. They have all proven me wrong. As for GRAB, I am taking a shot in the dark. No serious money is involved. GRAB is a stock which I can’t even put my valuation model to work. How can someone value something that is loss making and continue to burn cash in the foreseeable future? I don’t know. One area I do see potential is GRAB full digital bank licence, the opportunity to cross sell other financial products are going to be aplenty. Trading account, cryptocurrency account, managed funds, insurance and bnpl(buy now pay later) etc. Getting a digital bank licence is as close as any company getting a full bank licence in Singapore which MAS had stop issuing. The GRAB/SingTel digital bank will be ready by early 2022. I will take this as a test case for my entry into the world of fin tech /new tech investing. I hope for the best. SPAC investing is not for the weak stomach, no amount of Willy Wonka everlasting gobstoppers can calm the nerves from the whipsaw in share price. I had excluded GRAB Holdings from LWF due to volatile movement of the stock.
I mention about the difficulty to make gain in the second half of 2021(Singapore market context) which was indeed the case for me. 2022 market condition is likely to be a continuation of the end of 2021. I am not sure the market could continue to make new high given we are at the start of a tightening cycle with inflation running wild. It will be too big of an asking for another winning 2022 given the huge gain in the US market in 2021. As for Singapore market, we continue to limp along even thou we are the cheapest market in Asia. The performance of the STI is subpar at best. I am sure Mr. “Chew on it” from The Edge will have a different opinion on that. I will be looking out for market trend in Jan. As an old market wisdom goes, what goes on in Jan, goes for the rest of year.
It had been a year since I start writing this blog. I am glad you took an interest in my blog. It had been a year of learning and self discovery. I am always thankful for the opportunity to learn a new things. 2021 had taught me to be compassionate and to be empathetic. I hope to discover more of my surrounding which it offer. For Lone Wolf Fund, I will be happy with a mid to high single digit percentage return in 2022.
Anyone with interesting idea to share please contact me via email, I will be glad to read and reply your email . I will leave you with the best of Lone Wolf award 2021 vetted by one popular vote and one judge panel(me 😁) . I wish everyone a happy and rewarding 2022. May your dream come true. God Bless.
Best Wolf Money Book Recommendation Award
“Post Corona Crisis to Opportunity” by Scott Galloway.
https://lonewolfinvestor.blogspot.com/2021/11/wolf-moneybook-recommendation_18.html
Best Wolf Bargain Award
Koothurar Beach Road Briyani
https://lonewolfinvestor.blogspot.com/2021/07/wolf-bargainbts.html
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