Wolf Money(world market review 20-26 Feb 2023)

Khamsouk Keomingmuang Laos 1942

Economic Catastrophe circa 2003

Collection of National Gallery Singapore 

Market Summary 20-26 Feb 2023

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+ US Jan consumer spending up by most in 2 years; surge in wage gains, robust job growth, lowest jobless >53 yrs  

- US home sales drop to >12 yrs low in Jan, marked 12th straight monthly decline 

- US revised down GDP for Q4 to 2.7%, previously estimated at 2.9% annual rate last qtr 

+ Fed nearly all policymakers rallied behind decision to further slow the pace of interest rate hike: minutes 

+ US will resume economic talks with China at an appropriate time: Yellen 

- US regulators warn banks to be on alert for crypto-related liquidity risks 

- Wells Fargo laid off hundreds of mortgage bankers as part of strategic shift 

+ Boeing shifts focus to 6-generation combat aircraft, expects to hire more workers and build 3 new facilities 

- US Airlines cancelled >1300 flights as winter storm grips states  

- United Airlines delays adding China-US services as both govts fail to negotiate resumption of services 

- US 44,000 animals estimated have been killed in US ‘toxic train’ incident in Ohio, drawing concerns over food security 

+ US-China trade in farm goods, with soybeans as pillar, set records in 2022 with exports US$36.4bn to China 

- US taking new action against Russia’s mining sector, raising import levies on 100 Russian metals minerals, chemical products  

- California state’s population down >500,000 past 2 years, highest decline in state’s history

+ Berkshire Hathaway reported highest-ever annual operating profit of US$30.8bn; foreign currency losses, lower gains from investments caused Q4 profit to fall 

+ Meta to roll out paid subscription service, allowing users to verify their account 

+ Uber signed agreement with Tata Motors to include 25,000 EVs into its fleet 

- GM to halt Indiana truck plant for 2 weeks as inventory starts to outweigh demand  

+ Blackstone set to raise up to US$10bn for its tactical opportunities’ strategy, to invest in range of assets 

- Binance considering ending business relationships with US banks and services firms amid heightened scrutiny 

- Bankman-Fried faces 12 US criminal charges including 4 for fraud and 8 for conspiracy, up from 8 earlier 

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+ China economy to rebound in 2023 under precise, forceful monetary policy: PBOC

+ China finance veteran Zhu set to head central bank: sources 

+ China launched pilot scheme to boost private investment in real estate sector, with at least ¥30bn fundraising in 1st round

+ China centrally administered SOEs see operating revenue rise 9.1% to US$5.8 trillion in 2022

+ China FDI inflow jumped 14.5% YoY to ¥127.69bn in Jan, up 10% in USD terms to US$19bn 

+ China’s US$2.5 trillion savings could bring opportunities for growth: HKEX CEO 

- China’s US govt bond holdings hit lowest in >12 years at end Dec 2022 

+ China more families considering buying a home or investing in other assets in coming 3 mths: private survey  

+ China urges cease-fire in Ukraine under 12-point peace plan 

+ Xi stressed efforts towards self-reliance in science and technology, Int’l cooperation

+ China can now power almost every home with clean energy, however will still need more oil and gas to grow 

+ China refuted media claims of phasing out ‘big 4’ accounting services, some big 4 have won bids to provide services to China’s SOEs in recent days 

+ China’s Ministry of Commerce: foreign firms do not need to worry about rules on unreliable entities list 

+ China’s newly issued ¥25bn (US$3.6bn) worth of central bank bills in HK were 2.8 times oversubscribed 

+ China to launch ifs first home-grown large cruise H1508 ship later this year

+ China-Russia to coordinate high-level exchanges, restart dialogue mechanisms, greater bilateral relations: Wang Yi

+ China strengthens financial support for Hengqin and Qianhai in GBA, to integrate local development with HK and Macao SARs

+ China Tourism Academy expects 4.55bn domestic trips in 2023 to reach ¥4 trillion tourism revenue 

+ Baidu to deploy ChatGPT-like ERNIE Bot to its ecosystem 

+ HK >80% budget to benefit public, SMEs: finance chief 

+ HK govt will issue voucher worth HK$5000 to all adults this year to help economic recovery 

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- Japan’s core consumer inflation index hit 31-year high in Jan to 4.2%, up from 4% in previous mth 

- BOJ incoming chief Ueda says low rates remain appropriate for now 

- Yen hits 2-mth low on BOJ nominee’s easing stance, US inflation

+ Japan 2022 average condo price hits record high for 6th year in row to record high of ¥51.21m 

+ Toyota, Honda agreed to fully meet salary and bonus demands demanded by their unions 

+ Nissan to start robotaxi tests in China in Mar

+ Russia would cooperate with its allies to build a secure system of int’l settlements not dependent on USD or Euro 

+ Russian’s oil revenues much higher than reported, buyers paid more than the quoted price: Goldman Sachs 

+ Russia-China trade to hit US$200bn target early given the rate trade is growing: Putin 

+ Russia will export 50 to 60m tons of grain in 2022-2023, farmers harvested >160m tons of grain including 100m tons of wheat 

+ Russia has >550 int’l firms, many from EU currently still doing business in the country to lesser or greater extend: Yale Uni 

- IMF advises crypto assets should not be granted official currency or legal tender status 

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- Eurozone consumer price inflation eased to 8.6% in Jan from 9.2% previous mth

+ EU won’t fine banks fail to reveal Russian assets, reportedly faced pushback from nearly half of members states: Politico

- EU failed to agree on new batch of sanction against Russia: Reuters  

- EU wants Russian oil capped at US$30 a barrel: Bloomberg 

- ECB posted loss in 2022 as own interest rate increase forced to write down value of some bonds, fork out billion on balances created from decade of money printing 

- Germany’s economy shrank 0.4% QoQ in Q4, showing recession in the making 

- Germany’s inflation rate rose 8.7% YoY in Jan

+ Mercedes-Benz teamed up with Google to have ‘supercomputer’ with automated driving sensors to compete with Tesla etc

+ UK 4-day workweek trial; most companies reported revenue largely stayed the same or even rose over Jan to Dec trial period 

- France energy giant Engie sued Gazprom over halted Russian gas supplies 

+ Greece imported goods from Russia soared to record €9.33bn last year, doubling from 2021 

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- Australia central bank abandoned pause option for Feb rate hike, to consider 25 or 50bps hike 

- New Zealand hiked rates by 50bps to 4.75%, highest in >14 years to tame inflation 

+ Asia’s big brands are sitting out of Russia boycott; fewer >100 suspended or scaled back operations, except Japanese brands  

- India’s exports may see tepid growth in 2023: govt 

+ India’s push to regulate crypto gain IMF, US support at G20 but faces hurdles to ban 

+ Air India to hire >4200 cabin crew, 900 pilots after record order for 470 jets with Airbus and Boeing 

+ South Korea will no longer require arrivals from China to do Covid test from March 

+ Iraq to allow trade with China settled in yuan for first time

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+ ASEAN-China agreed to push forward comprehensive strategic partnership to a new high 

+ Jokowi nominates BI chief Perry Warjiyo for 2nd term 

+ Indonesia plans to double per capital income by using its success in nickel as blueprint 

+ Thailand’s economy to grow 3.8% this year, inflation to ebb: Finance Minister 

- Thailand’s economy grew 1.4% in Q4 amid declining exports, manufacturing

+ Thailand taken step toward legalising casinos, aims to inject new life into tourism sector 

- Vietnam’s second-largest developer seeking debt extensions after failing repay bond US$42m on time  

+ Malaysia unveiled record RM388.1bn budget, focusing on sustainable growth, fighting corruption, reducing social equality, higher tax on the rich   

+ Malaysia Tun Razak Exchange and Iskandar in Johor will become financial zones, Penang and Subang would be upgraded 

- Anwar: there is an urgent need to tame the national debt, at RM1.2 trillion, above 60% of GDP 

- Sg headline inflation at 6.6%, core at 5.5%, fastest pace >14 years 

- Sg manufacturing activities likely continue to contract for H1 amid lacklustre external conditions: economists 

- Sg fertility rate falls to lowest on record at 1.05 babies per woman last year 

- Sg nearly 30 residential projects carrying 1400 unsold units face critical sale deadline in 2023 

- Sg cannot cut land prices to tackle housing costs: PM

+ Sg granted 200 PR under Sg Global Investor Programme in last 3 years 

- Temasek among 18 companies hit by US class action lawsuit for allegedly defrauding FTX customers

Contribution by Derek@valueinvestments chat group. Thank you

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