Wolf Money(portfolio update for end June 2023)
Portfolio as at end of June
1.) Cash
2.) Bank of China(3988.HKG)
Wheel of Fortune
My favourite TV host, Pat Sajak from Wheel of Fortune will be retiring in 2024. It is not absurd to be saying I had been watching him since I was a kid. Wheel of Fortune longest serving host is a mainstay of Channel 5 primetime. It is also the program which I enjoy watching with my son. I can’t imagine watching Wheel of Fortune without him. Pat Sajak is Wheel of Fortune, Wheel of Fortune is Pat Sajak. 😢
With the closure of Turf Club in 2024, I predict more people will be spinning their “Wheel of Fortune” in the casino. Gambling is in the blood of the Chinese. One can’t get into the mood of Chinese New Year celebration without some form of social gambling taking place, Mahjong, 10m Toto Ang Pao Draw or a trip to casino. Chinese do have a propensity to make luck through gambling due to the belief of “trying luck”. One could see huge bets won and lost in casino and many gamblers struggle with gambling addiction. Gambling addiction is one of the most difficult addiction to kick.
I had my struggle with “gambling addiction” at a very young age. My Ah Gong(Grandfather) always gave his grandsons generous pocket money. I was given a dollar per day. I felt like a rich kid during the 80s. Instead of saving the money up or buying somethings that were more productive and useful, I spent my money on Tikam Tikam(game of chances). I was a regular punter of Tikam Tikam at my neighbourhood grocery store. A ticket cost 30c each. Every drawn numbers represented a different prize. Sometime I got lucky winning a toy car, a small keychain or a packet of sweets which cost less than the Tikam Tikam if I had bought it directly from the grocery shop and most of time I won nothing. A typical day went with me spending all my money on 3 Tikam Tikam and a Sng Bao(Ice Popsical) with my remaining 10c. I always went home penniless at the end of the day.
My ex neighbour, a plumber, was a generous person. I worked part time for him during school holiday sparingly, pushing his tradesman’s cart, fixing some simple plumbing equipment with a few screws. He would asked me to tag along as “Xiao Di” for his assignment to fix leaking faucets on a few occasions. One can’t imagine the amount he charged for his service during the late 80s. A 10 mins job earned him a non negotiable hundred here and there. I was given $5 an hour for my effort which was a lot of money for a young kid. Sadly I had seen how gambling destroyed him and his family. Money he earned from his trade went into “feeding horses” at the Turf Club, weekly 4D bets amounted to few hundred dollars eventually led him down a financial slippery slope. Unpaid loan shark debt causing great duress to his wife that led to their eventual separation.
I was asked many times in my career as a broker. Is the stock market a casino? Yes and No. Stock market can be a tool for gambling if one chooses to treat it like a casino. The main differences, house odds will always stacked against the gamblers in the casino. In the stock market, there is no house odds that stacked against people who buy stocks. One can read charts, do fundamental analysis to improve your odd of winning and wait out for the right moment before entering the market. Famous quote from Buffett “ There are no three strikes out in the stock market if you refused to hit the ball”. If one gambled in stock market, be prepared to lose like a casino. Wheel of Fortune in the stock market is for people that are well prepared and patient. There is simply no short cut on the path to richness. If you are looking to accumulate serious wealth, one must avoid gambling.
Commentary
Our market had a small rebound in June. STI was up around 1.5%. The Singapore manufacturing output fall for 8 straight months due to falling electronics export as global demands weakened. I was walking along Orchard early this week, there were visibly less tourists, by 9pm Orchard Rd was quiet. I have no idea is it due to school reopening or the slowdown in economic growth is starting to bite consumption. Chinese tourists which was predicted by the media to storm our shore after reopening failed to materialise in a big way as confirmed by statistics from STB. From Jan to May 2023, only 311k visitors from mainland visited our country vs 1.55m pre covid in 2019. It is the same situation in Bangkok where I saw more Taiwanese visitors than visitors from mainland during my recent visit. China is going through their own economic slowdown potentially affecting their citizens desire to travel. The weakening yuan is a disincentive factor to travel overseas. Domestic tours had done well in China.
Boustead Singapore
Boustead Singapore had requested for another 3 months extension to comply with the listing rule regarding the suspension of Boustead Projects. Concurrently BPL had announced the redevelopment of 36 Tuas property which was acquired by Boustead Projects more than 7 years ago from the now defunct AusGroup. The location is near the new Tuas Mega Port. The company had roped in two accredited investors to jointly developed the projects for up to 33m. BPL will be building a logistics and warehouse facility at the site. It is a welcome news for shareholders given the property had been underperforming due to its aging facility. The new project will be completed by end of 2024 or early 2025. BPL is likely to earn development and management fee from this project. The company will be having their AGM in July. I have quite a few questions to asked. I will be attending their AGM, Do watch out for my blog for proceeding at the AGM.
Bank of China(3988.HKG)
The share price was up marginally in June even as the latest economic numbers shown reopening growth slowing. The government willingness to support the economy through rate cuts and stimulus measures are seen as positive for supporting the wider economy. The Chinese government do have policies flexibility if the economy failed to find firmer footing.
Haw Par Corp
With a substantial discount to book value and a recovery healthcare business, the weakness in the share price is puzzling. Next assessment of the company will be its half yearly result in August. It will provide me with more clues on the fundamentals of their core business. Stock is marginally down in June.
Cash
I didn’t subscribe more SSBs in June due to the unattractive yield for July issue. The rest of my SSBs had a yield of more than 3%. True to my forecast, there ain’t any movement in the portfolio to deploy those cash.
Summary
Lone Wolf Fund was up 1.5% for the month of June in line with the rising market. YTD gain stands at 5%(dividend and cash return excluded). STI Index had been underperforming this year with YTD decline of just slightly over 1%. Given Nasdaq 30% bull run and S&P putting on a creditable 12% gain this year, STI performance is pathetic for lack of a better word. It had been 16 years since our index reached the high of 3900. Most world markets had gone past their previous high and we are still struggling to keep hold of 3000 points. With the high interest rate and troubles in foreign properties focused Reits listed on our exchange, the last bankable sector of our market will struggle for new listings going forward. SGX had failed to innovate to stay ahead of the game. I mentioned about the importance of having a vibrant stock market to function as a place where entrepreneurs can raise capital for expansion. I can’t help feeling, SGX had gone astray with in its mission of creating a world class stock exchange in recent years, neglecting the growth of our stock market. The exchange had anchored their business towards derivatives and synthetic, in my opinion, has no competitive moot to the exchange without the strong IP that is associated to strong companies listed on the exchange. With delistings overwhelming listings, it is just a matter of time SGX own valuation got affected by the exodus of companies wanting out of our market. If SGX ain’t willing to put in extra effort to run the stock exchange well, now it might be the time for the exchange to contemplate selling themselves out to a bigger stock exchange group to preserve value for its shareholders and let the acquirer do the hard job of reviving our stock market to its former glory. The slow moving train is heading towards the end of the line and no one sitting in the train bother to do anything to stop the train from falling off the cliff. Enough said. SGX if you are reading, time is running out. Just think of it as current tenants leaving a shopping mall in large numbers without incoming tenants. What will happens to the value of the property? Your guess is as good as mine. Only shareholders of SGX can invoke changes. God bless our stock exchange, may we see the light at the end of tunnel soon.🙏
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