Wolf Money(world market review 2-8 Oct 2023)

 The Rotunda Library@National Gallery Singapore

Market Summary 2-8 Oct 2023

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- US mortgage rates hit 23 years high in Sept, average 30-year fixed mortgage contract rate rose by 12 bps to 7.53% 

- US payrolls increased by 336,000 in Sept, exceeds expectations, fuels interest rate hike fears 

- ADP payrolls rose 89,000 in Sept, down from upwardly revised 180,000 in Aug, below the 160,000 estimate by DJ 

- US entire banking industry lost total US$872 bn in a year, about 30% or US$260 bn exited JPMorgan, BofA, Wells Fargo n Citi: S&P

- Kevin McCarthy voted out as Speaker of the House 

+ US automakers’ sales rose 16.3% from Jul through Sept despite high prices and interest rates 

+ US auto workers hold strike expansion after bringing EV battery plants into union’s national contract 

+ United Airlines making 2nd largest order new planes less than a year, >100 include 50 Boeing 787-9, 60 Airbus A321neos 

- US debt crisis to slow East Asian growth: FT

- US >75,000 workers to strike at hundreds of Kaiser Permanente health facilities across the country 

+ ChatGPT owner OpenAI wants to design own AI processor chips, explores acquisition 

+ AI can affect >40% of labour force in 3 years: Morgan Stanley forecasts  

+ Microsoft aims to close US$69bn Activision deal next week if gets approval from UK’s antitrust regulator

+ Apple held talks with DuckDuckGo about using its search engine instead of Google’s for Safari 

+ Tesla signed lease to open vase sales and service centre in Shanghai industrial park, biggest one in China 

+ Google’s latest Pixel phone to run AI assistance on-device  

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- China expressed strong dissatisfaction with EU probe into EVs, vowed to protect interests of Chinese EV companies 

+ Caixin manufacturing PMI at 50.6 in Sept, services index at 50.2

+ China’s SOEs invested >US$115bn in key emerging industries, including mobile telecom, AI, biotech, new materials 

+ China’s bond market issuances hit ¥6.63 trillion (US$923.42bn) in Aug 

+ China’s software and information tech service industry growth 13.9% in first 8 mths, profit of the sector reached US$120.17bn 

+ China’s commercial vehicle sales up 16.4% in Jan-Aug YoY to 2.57m units; sales of coaches up 23.9%, trucks up 15.5% 

+ China’s logistic sector rose 4.8% YoY to ¥216 trillion (US$30 trillion) in first 8 mths 

+ China’s courier sector up 10.7% YoY with total revenue ¥748.81bn (US$) first 8 mths 

+ ICBC agriculture-related loans reached approximately ¥4 trillion (US$557.12) in first 8 mths 

+ China total 826m domestic passenger trips were made during 8-day Mid-Autumn Festival and National holidays, up 71.3% YoY 

+ China’s cross-border trips during Golden Week holiday recover to 85% of pre-pandemic level 

- China’s smartphone manufacturing output down 7.5% to 679m in first 8 mths from same period in 2022  

- TikTok to stop sales in Indonesia after social media transaction ban

- TSMC shares have fallen 11%, easing US$77bn market cap since its Jun high

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- Japan household spending fell 2.5% YoY in Aug, declining for 6th consecutive mth 

+ Japan approved US$1.3bn in subsidies for Micron Technology Inc’s Hiroshima factory 

+ Russia lifts ban on most of its diesel exports 

- Russia to raise wheat export duty to US$51.8 per ton 

- Global bond sell-off accelerates as yields keep surging 

- OPEC+ maintains output reduction to boost oil prices after Saudi and Russia extend oil supply cuts until end year 

- Gold dips to 7-mth low on strong dollar 

- WTO slashed 2023 global trade growth forecast to 0.8% 

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- Eurozone economy edging toward recession: S&P survey 

+ EU plans to better protect its cutting-edge technologies from foreign snooping 

- German exports fell 1.2% in Aug vs previous mth to €127.9bn, import down 0.4% to €111.4bn 

+ Germany plans to keep supporting AIIB, Chinese state-backed financial development lender

+ Germany n China held 3rd high level financial dialogue in Frankfurt, committed to combating trade protectionism 

- UK house prices fell at fastest pace since 2009 in 12 mths to Sept: Halifax 

- UK scrapped high-speed rail line between Birmingham n Manchester due to soaring costs

- Netanyahu says Israel is at war after dozens die in Hamas attacks 

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+ Australia to rejoin Global Climate Fund it abandoned in 2018

- South Korea’s headline exports fell 3.4% in Sept vs 8.3% drop in Aug, overall imports fell 16.5% YoY, trade surplus at US$3.7bn 

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+ Jokowi said he ordered the military and police to help fight Indonesia fires causing haze 

+ Jakarta-Bandung HSR begins operation, expected to see ridership of around 10m trips in first year 

+ Thailand’s inflation rate for Sept dropped to 0.3% vs 0.88% in Aug, attributed to lower energy and good prices 

+ Anwar 36-hr visit to UAE has secured investment commitments amounting to RM40.6bn in renewable energy, aerospace, logistics sectors 

+ Malaysia to further strengthen Port Klang’s role as leading goods transshipment hub in Asean region: Anthony Loke 

+ Johor Senai Int’l Airport unveiled expansion plan, boosting annual passenger handling capacity from 4m to 5m travellers 

- Malaysia to look into Indonesia’s move to ban e-commerce sales in TikTok: Minister  

+ Sg overall manufacturing sentiment back into positive 1st time in 6 mths, PMI edged up to 50.1 in Sept

+ Sg retail sales growth rose 4% YoY in Aug, up from revised 1.3% in Jul 

+ Sg digital economy contributed 17.3% to GDP in 2022, up from 13% in 2017

- Sg transport fare hike expected to add 0.7% pt to 2024 core inflation: MTI

- MAS to review internal incentive administration process for single family offices applying got tax incentives here  

- Sg said air quality incentre and east has reached unhealthy levels due to forest fires in Indonesia 

+ Sg overall hotel rm revenues slipped 6.4% to S$450.5m, average room rate still up 13.6% YoY 

+ Sg Food Agency launched 5 plots for slae via public tender to boost food resilience 

+ Sg F&B sales growth up 8.6% in Aug 

+ Sg approved 34 applications by PRs seeking to buy landed homes in 2022 vs 51 in 2021, 24 in 2020, excludes Sentosa Island 

Contribution by Derek@valueinvestments chat group. Thank you

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