Wolf Money(world market review 2-8 Oct 2023)

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 The Rotunda Library@National Gallery Singapore


Market Summary 2-8 Oct 2023

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- US mortgage rates hit 23 years high in Sept, average 30-year fixed mortgage contract rate rose by 12 bps to 7.53% 

- US payrolls increased by 336,000 in Sept, exceeds expectations, fuels interest rate hike fears 

- ADP payrolls rose 89,000 in Sept, down from upwardly revised 180,000 in Aug, below the 160,000 estimate by DJ 

- US entire banking industry lost total US$872 bn in a year, about 30% or US$260 bn exited JPMorgan, BofA, Wells Fargo n Citi: S&P

- Kevin McCarthy voted out as Speaker of the House 

+ US automakers’ sales rose 16.3% from Jul through Sept despite high prices and interest rates 

+ US auto workers hold strike expansion after bringing EV battery plants into union’s national contract 

+ United Airlines making 2nd largest order new planes less than a year, >100 include 50 Boeing 787-9, 60 Airbus A321neos 

- US debt crisis to slow East Asian growth: FT

- US >75,000 workers to strike at hundreds of Kaiser Permanente health facilities across the country 

+ ChatGPT owner OpenAI wants to design own AI processor chips, explores acquisition 

+ AI can affect >40% of labour force in 3 years: Morgan Stanley forecasts  

+ Microsoft aims to close US$69bn Activision deal next week if gets approval from UK’s antitrust regulator

+ Apple held talks with DuckDuckGo about using its search engine instead of Google’s for Safari 

+ Tesla signed lease to open vase sales and service centre in Shanghai industrial park, biggest one in China 

+ Google’s latest Pixel phone to run AI assistance on-device  

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- China expressed strong dissatisfaction with EU probe into EVs, vowed to protect interests of Chinese EV companies 

+ Caixin manufacturing PMI at 50.6 in Sept, services index at 50.2

+ China’s SOEs invested >US$115bn in key emerging industries, including mobile telecom, AI, biotech, new materials 

+ China’s bond market issuances hit ¥6.63 trillion (US$923.42bn) in Aug 

+ China’s software and information tech service industry growth 13.9% in first 8 mths, profit of the sector reached US$120.17bn 

+ China’s commercial vehicle sales up 16.4% in Jan-Aug YoY to 2.57m units; sales of coaches up 23.9%, trucks up 15.5% 

+ China’s logistic sector rose 4.8% YoY to ¥216 trillion (US$30 trillion) in first 8 mths 

+ China’s courier sector up 10.7% YoY with total revenue ¥748.81bn (US$) first 8 mths 

+ ICBC agriculture-related loans reached approximately ¥4 trillion (US$557.12) in first 8 mths 

+ China total 826m domestic passenger trips were made during 8-day Mid-Autumn Festival and National holidays, up 71.3% YoY 

+ China’s cross-border trips during Golden Week holiday recover to 85% of pre-pandemic level 

- China’s smartphone manufacturing output down 7.5% to 679m in first 8 mths from same period in 2022  

- TikTok to stop sales in Indonesia after social media transaction ban

- TSMC shares have fallen 11%, easing US$77bn market cap since its Jun high

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- Japan household spending fell 2.5% YoY in Aug, declining for 6th consecutive mth 

+ Japan approved US$1.3bn in subsidies for Micron Technology Inc’s Hiroshima factory 

+ Russia lifts ban on most of its diesel exports 

- Russia to raise wheat export duty to US$51.8 per ton 

- Global bond sell-off accelerates as yields keep surging 

- OPEC+ maintains output reduction to boost oil prices after Saudi and Russia extend oil supply cuts until end year 

- Gold dips to 7-mth low on strong dollar 

- WTO slashed 2023 global trade growth forecast to 0.8% 

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- Eurozone economy edging toward recession: S&P survey 

+ EU plans to better protect its cutting-edge technologies from foreign snooping 

- German exports fell 1.2% in Aug vs previous mth to €127.9bn, import down 0.4% to €111.4bn 

+ Germany plans to keep supporting AIIB, Chinese state-backed financial development lender

+ Germany n China held 3rd high level financial dialogue in Frankfurt, committed to combating trade protectionism 

- UK house prices fell at fastest pace since 2009 in 12 mths to Sept: Halifax 

- UK scrapped high-speed rail line between Birmingham n Manchester due to soaring costs

- Netanyahu says Israel is at war after dozens die in Hamas attacks 

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+ Australia to rejoin Global Climate Fund it abandoned in 2018

- South Korea’s headline exports fell 3.4% in Sept vs 8.3% drop in Aug, overall imports fell 16.5% YoY, trade surplus at US$3.7bn 

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+ Jokowi said he ordered the military and police to help fight Indonesia fires causing haze 

+ Jakarta-Bandung HSR begins operation, expected to see ridership of around 10m trips in first year 

+ Thailand’s inflation rate for Sept dropped to 0.3% vs 0.88% in Aug, attributed to lower energy and good prices 

+ Anwar 36-hr visit to UAE has secured investment commitments amounting to RM40.6bn in renewable energy, aerospace, logistics sectors 

+ Malaysia to further strengthen Port Klang’s role as leading goods transshipment hub in Asean region: Anthony Loke 

+ Johor Senai Int’l Airport unveiled expansion plan, boosting annual passenger handling capacity from 4m to 5m travellers 

- Malaysia to look into Indonesia’s move to ban e-commerce sales in TikTok: Minister  

+ Sg overall manufacturing sentiment back into positive 1st time in 6 mths, PMI edged up to 50.1 in Sept

+ Sg retail sales growth rose 4% YoY in Aug, up from revised 1.3% in Jul 

+ Sg digital economy contributed 17.3% to GDP in 2022, up from 13% in 2017

- Sg transport fare hike expected to add 0.7% pt to 2024 core inflation: MTI

- MAS to review internal incentive administration process for single family offices applying got tax incentives here  

- Sg said air quality incentre and east has reached unhealthy levels due to forest fires in Indonesia 

+ Sg overall hotel rm revenues slipped 6.4% to S$450.5m, average room rate still up 13.6% YoY 

+ Sg Food Agency launched 5 plots for slae via public tender to boost food resilience 

+ Sg F&B sales growth up 8.6% in Aug 

+ Sg approved 34 applications by PRs seeking to buy landed homes in 2022 vs 51 in 2021, 24 in 2020, excludes Sentosa Island 


Contribution by Derek@valueinvestments chat group. Thank you

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Disclaimers 

All investments is highly speculative in nature and involves substantial risk of loss. We encourage our reader to invest very carefully. We also encourage reader to get personal advice from your professional investment advisor and to make independent investigations before acting on information that we publish. Much of our information is derived directly from information published by companies or submitted to governmental agencies on which we believe are reliable but are without our independent verification. Therefore, we cannot assure you that the information is accurate or complete. We do not in any way whatsoever warrant or guarantee the success of any action you take in reliance on our statements. All information provided are for education only. Buyer beware,do you own due diligence.

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