Wolf Money(world market review 9-15 Oct 2023)

 

Ong Kim Seng Singapore 1945

Singapore River circa 1980

Collection of National Heritage Board, Singapore

Market Summary 9-15 Oct 2023

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- US CPI rose 0.4% in Sept MoM and 3.7% YoY, core CPI up 0.3% MoM and 4.1% YoY, shelter costs accounting >50% the rise  

- US national debt surged >US$500bn in just 20 days to reach US$33.5 trillion, borrowed by federal govt to cover operating expenses 

+ Fed Reserve Harker: amid ongoing disinflation, rate hikes likely over 

+ US jobless claims remains at historically low level of 209,000, job market remains strong in face higher interest rates

- US average long-term mortgage rate surges to 7.57%, holding at highest level since 2000 

+ US import prices edged up 0.1% in Sept, below expectation due to strong dollar 

- US consumer sentiment fell sharply in Oct as household anticipated higher inflation over next yr 

+ US major banks; JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, Citigroup profits get boosted by higher interest rates 

+ US EV sales jumped >300,000 first time in Q3

- Boeing deliveries of new airline jets slumped in Q3 as it struggled with production issues 

+ Delta Air posts US$1.1bn profit in Q3, sees strong holiday bookings 

+ Microsoft closes US$69bn Activision deal after UK’s nod 

- IRS says Microsoft owes US treasury US$28.9bn in back taxes, plus penalties and interest, Microsoft disagrees 

- Tesla’s market share slipped to lowest on record, now dominates just 50% of the market, down from 62% it held in Q1

- Ford to temporarily layoff 700 workers at EV plant 

+ US casino industry generates nearly US$329bn a year in economic activity: study shows 

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+ China’s CPI remained flat in Sept YoY, but rose 0.2% vs previous mth as consumption continues to recover: NBS 

- China’s PPI fell by 2.5% in Sept, indicator has fallen for 12 mths in a row 

+ China’s central bank expected to keep borrowing costs unchanged but ramp up liquidity support when rolls over >¥500bn medium-term policy loans next wk 

- China’s consumer spending still isn’t growing as fast as it dd before pandemic

-  China number of births last year slide 10% to hit lowest on record with 9.56m births  

+ Chinese banks issued ¥2.31 trillion (US$316.15bn) of new yuan loans in Sept vs ¥1.36 trillion in Aug

- China’s foreign trade reached ¥30.8 trillion (US$3.21 trillion) in first 9-mth, down 0.2% YoY, exports up 0.6%, imports fell 1.2% 

+ China ready to elevate BRI economic, trade cooperation to new level: official 

+ China’s Sept foreign trade hits new monthly high of 2023, hitting ¥3.74 trillion  

+ China’s trade surplus with US widens to US$33.19bn in Sept vs US$30.06bn in Aug 

- China’s chip imports fell 15% in first 9-mth YoY, from 416.7bn to 355.9bn units, total value down 19.8% to US$252.9bn    

+ China Sept coal imports surged 27.5% YoY  

- Country Garden founding family recently provides US$300m interest free loan, trying to sell private jet: media report 

+ Huawei unveiled world’s first comprehensive 5.5G product solution, says network capacity to increase 10 times 

+ TSMC expects to receive approval from US to supply its China plant with US chipmaking tools indefinitely 

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+ Japan’s core inflation likely stayed above central bank’s 2% target for 19th straight mth in Sept 

- Japan number of corporate bankruptcies jumped 37.7% to an 8-year high in Apr-Sept 

- Japanese about half of 1400 firms in China foresee drop in investment; survey 

+ Japan foreign tourists arrival surged to 10.15m in H1 

- Toshiba to delist in Japan on Dec 20 after 74 years of history 

+ Putin to deepen no-limits partnership with China in meeting with Xi at Beijing’s BRI Forum next week 

+ Putin urged CIS countries to rely more on national currencies in trade, less vulnerable to outside influences 

- Oil surges nearly 6% after Israel begins ground raids into Gaza 

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- European natural gas prices surged to 6-mth high

+ EU was committed to managing bilateral relations with China in a constructive and responsible manner: Borrell 

- EU to hand over US$1.8bn in taxes collected from Russian assets to Ukraine 

- German economy expected to contract 0.4% in 2023 due to persistent inflation: ministry 

+ German inflation eased to 4.3% in Sept, inflation is on downward trajectory: Bundesbank President

- German industrial production dropped for 4th mth straight in Aug to the lowest level this year 

+ Volkswagen deliveries rose 7.4% in Q3; strong demand in Europe and US offset China weakness 

- UK employers cut job vacancies 1st time in >2.5 yrs in Sept and reduced hiring again

+ France on course for modest economic growth heading into end year; lower food inflation offers consumer some relief: INSEE

+ Ferrari to accept crypto as payment for its cars in the US 

+ Greece eyes to raise >€5bn in 2024 from sales of state assets including stake in Athens airport and concession 2 toll roads 

- Israel: next stages of war against Hamas will include coordinated attack from air, sea and land 

- Israel raised US$200m from diaspora bond sales since war with Hamas began, debt insurance costs surge 

- Israel shekel fell to almost 8-year low against US dollar as conflict in ME escalate; central bank’s to sell US$30bn of forex 

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+ Australia-China trade sees 10.2% growth in first 9-mth YoY in trade volume 

- Australia Indigenous leaders call for week of silence after referendum rejected by majority of population 

+ NZ opposition leader Luxon is poised to form a new govt after PM Hipkins conceded defeat 

- India’s merchandise trade deficit in Sept stood at US$19.37bn: Reuters 

- South Korea to fine 2 HK banks for naked short-selling 

- Qatari investors dropped bid to buy Manchester United 

+ Sri Lanka president to visit China as debt restructuring talks progress 

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+ Indonesia allocated education budget of Rp660.8 trillion education budget; 20% of 2024 state budget to focus on high-quality human resources 

- Indonesia need to import another 1.5m tonnes of rice to brace for El Nino: Jokowi 

+ Indonesia holding on to its goal of becoming a developed economy by 2045 

+ Thailand is committed to driving country forward as regional economic hub, supporting employment, narrowing income gaps, promoting foreign investments: PM

+ Thai SEC takes measures to restore investor trust in capital market, as funding and saving destination 

+ Anwar govt tables record RM393.8bn federal budget for 2024, >40% to be allotted for finance, education and health

+ Malaysia to cut diesel subsidies in a phased manner, expects inflation to tick up at 2.1% to 3.6% next yr due to removal of some subsidies

+ Malaysia to introduce capital gain and tax on high-value goods and gradually cut subsidies to bolster fiscal position 

+ Malaysia set to increase settlements in local currencies to reduce reliance on the US dollar: Anwar 

+ Malaysia to introduce min tax in 2025 for companies with global income at least US$789m per yr, in line with int’l standard

+ Malaysia to relax conditions for My Second Home (MM2H) applications to woo foreign tourists, investors 

+ Malaysia to lift price controls on chicken, eggs to allow free market

- Goldman Sachs sued Malaysia in UK court over 1MDB settlement 

+ Sg and US to venture into new areas to beef up ties: DPM 

- Sg economy grew 0.7% YoY in Q3 vs 0.5% YoY growth in Q2 

+ Sg is fighting rising seas to save S$70bn in real estate 

+ MAS keeps monetary policy unchanged, expects Sg economy to improve gradually next year 

- Sg gym industry could consolidate further, especially n central areas: observers 

Contribution by Derek@valueinvestments chat group. Thank you

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