Wolf Money(portfolio update end July 2025)part 2
Singapore 60th National Day
Happy National Day to my beloved home, Singapore. As we celebrate our 60th year as a nation. I have taken time to reflect on the past and beyond of this tiny nation. In general, the country has satisfied the most basic of Maslow hierarchy of needs for most Singaporeans. From a fishing village to a metropolis in a half a century. This achievement was not given by chance. We faced many challenges during our journey towards an industrial nation and later on as a world financial hub. The current generation’s success was built standing on the shoulders of the generation before. It wouldn’t be possible without the sacrifice of our pioneers. In SG100, what will my crystal ball show?
1.) GDP per capita to reach $300,000 per person.
2.) The first Singaporean to do a lunar walk on the moon.
3.) Singapore has officially declared a 2-day work week as AI and robotics relegate humans to a trumpery.
4.) Singapore was declared a nuclear power, like other 50 countries.
5.) Singapore football reached the final of the main competition of the FIFA World Cup 2066.
6.) Singapore is the largest buyer of farm land in South East Asia due to the need to grow food as global warming caused food production to drop by 50% across the world.
7.) Life expectancy in Singapore will reached 88 years on average.
The best day of our country is still ahead of us. Here’s to the grand old lady. Happy 60th birthday. 🎂
Lone Wolf Fund(LWF)
Portfolio as at end of July 2025
1.) Cash
2.) Kimly Ltd
*Stocks are not rank in accordance to capital invested.
Commentary
What a month for Lone Wolf Fund. From struggling during the first half of the year to a double-digit gain in a matter of a month is beyond my imagination. I have a lot to be thankful. The Great Lord must be working his magic behind the scene. Overall LWF was up 14.5% for the month. YTD gains stands at 16%(unleveraged excluding dividends and cash yield). Major profit contributors were Banyan Group which had an amazing rise. ComfortDelGro had broken its 52 weeks high after consolidating for more than 2 months within the $1.40 to $1.45 range. The stock was up for the month. LWF had a short stay in Thai Bev. It was later sold due to escalating Thai-Cambodia conflict.
The STI performance is commendable. From my past experience of a bull market. The star performers of the STI have pushed the index to all-time high. If the rally continues to have legs. The laggers of STI will be next to show strength. They are your usual suspects which are trading nearer their 52 week low. A huge contrast to the star performers of STI. With the deployment of the MAS 5b fund, the fundamentally good mid and small cap will be next to benefit.
I praise SGX for pushing more IPOs into our market, but we shouldn’t lose sight on the quality of the IPOs. If the underwriters drive a hard bargain on valuation. Investors of the IPOs wouldn’t be able to make a gain. If nobody is able to make a gain on the IPO market, will anyone be interested? Probably not. There will be Nothing To Talk about for our market. The 7.5% yield given by the new listing seems mildly attractive on the surface with 10 UST “risk-free” at 4.4%. The yield will be lowered due to 90% payout in a couple of years from now. With assets potentially needing a fair amount of investment to be AI-compliant and a 31% exposure to a single customer who is well known for cutting cost, it does give the Reit a higher risk profile in terms of customer concentration risk. Will it take off in a big way? I don’t know. Maybe a big rate cut in the US may help. Most investors are having their base currency in SGD. They may have to contend with a substantial drop in the exchange rate for holding USD-dominated assets. Take nothing away from SGX for pulling off the biggest IPO in years. Keep up the good work. 👍
Banyan Group(sold)
Most of Banyan Group’s financial merits were mentioned in my previous blogs a few weeks ago. I wouldn’t go into it again. I will make myself a cup of tea and stay tuned to their result announcement in the middle of August.
I have been getting a lot of congratulatory messages from friends, ex-clients and followers of my telegram channel for my trade in Banyan Group. If I can be blatantly honest, I wasn’t expecting the share price to reach for the stars within a short span of time, but one thing is for certain. The company remains undervalued. As a market participant, I can analyse stocks till I am satisfied with my findings, but there is no certainty things will go the way I envisage. I attribute the spectacle of Banyan’s performance down to pure luck. Sometimes I get it lucky, sometimes I don’t. Those who just join my telegram. I hope you stay long enough to see the horizon. There are times I will be at the receiving end of a bad market. Someone asked why am I selling the stock? Lone Wolf Fund made a gain in excess of 57%. If someone told me I was going to make north of 50% in a month on Banyan Group before my purchase, I would have taken it with both hands and legs. Can the exit price be better? It sure can!
When each investor sells their stock it can be attributed to a lot of factors. Everyone can have the same reason for buying the stock because you expect the price of the share to go up, but there are many reasons why each sells a stock. Entry price, market outlook or a down payment for a property requiring cash payments. There is no hard and fast rule. I consider Banyan Group a successful trade as it pays for my household expenses for the rest of the year, buy my family a trip to Japan and most importantly, secured donations for the charity I support for doing God’s works. I am less fixated on profit maximisation which is close to impossible. Profit is not just a number. Those gains could make an impact to your family and your surrounding community. Everyone has a number. What’s yours? LWF made a gain of more than 57% for a holding period of 1 month.
If you have made some money in Banyan Group. I would like you to consider a small donation to the charity you support. I am sure they will be very grateful for your generosity. I have donated a small part of my gains to some charities and church organisations which I support. As the economy turns uncertain, donations to charity will decrease. They need every help we can give.
ComfortDelGro(sold)
The stock is on steroids. Shareholders of CDG will be delighted to join the bull party. The stock zoom past its 52-week high with ease. The uptrend in CDG share wasn’t enough to mask the poor total shareholders’ return(TSR) in CDG. TSR over the past 10 years was abysmal. I haven’t done an actual calculation. I suspect the figure might be a negative figure to the tune of -2% to -3% a year. That figure is unacceptable given the market hasn’t done badly. It is also important to remember the bullish market doesn’t last forever. Make hay while the sun shines. Some measures like share buy back or undertaking value unlocking exercise are within the control of the company. The upcoming result is important, it will be a report card to show how well executed is their strategy on overseas acquisitions. CDG spent $750m on overseas acquisitions last year. LWF sold all my holdings to fund the purchase of Kimly Ltd. I have achieved my objective of cash management within the range of 10% to 15% profit with CDG. Return on investment comes in slightly more than 11% for a holding period of 3.5 months.
Thai Bev(sold)
I am still in the process of sizing up their prospects amid the Thai-Cambodia border crisis. Thai Bev falling fortune might be due to the woes in Thailand. The Thai stock market is the only market in Asia in bear territory. The SET index is down close to 20% this year.
In the latest Forbes list of wealthy people in Thailand. The Sirivadhanabhakdi family which controls ThaiBev has dropped to 4th on the rich list. I hope by dropping out of the top three richest families in Thailand, it will gives the Sirivadhanabhakdi family the incentive to address the underperforming share price in Thai Bev. Will we be able to finally see a BeerCo listing this year? I don’t know, but there is always hope. I will reassess my plan after their result announcement in mid-August. LWF made some beer money of around 2% on Thai Bev.
Another day, another shooting incident in Bangkok. Thailand seems to be in some sort of bad luck. The bad news just keep on coming. The shooting in Bangkok is going to deter more Chinese tourists to Thailand.
Kimly Ltd
I added Kimly just before the turn of the month. The share price has a slight uptick. My main objective is for cash management. You can read about my detail thesis on the company.
Cash
As the yield on Singapore 10-year bonds continues to drop. There is a demand for safe and risk free investment. Unfortunately, most savings accounts offered by the banks have an interest rate lower than 2%. It forces one to take market risk for higher yields.. If you are not using that capital for the next 5 years. Dividend stock is an area of consideration if you have a higher risk appetite. Some companies are still offering yield in excess of 6%. I will only buy stocks that has an unblemished record of paying a good dividend. A lower yield in the bank account is not a signal for buy everything on sight. There is still the safety of SSBs if there is nothing to invest. There was an increase in cash due to sales of Banyan Group, Thai Bev and ComfortDelGro. Cash or cash equivalent made up 86% of Lone Wolf Fund portfolio.
Summary
As the bull market creates substantial wealth, it is important to keep a level head. The dizzy height of a crazy bull market can lead to some investors doing silly things. Ultimately, a bull market will create wealth for some, but many will lose their head when the market crashes. Always stick to what you know. Don’t chase the next big idea. Sometimes people lose more than they made during a bull market. The signal to an end of a bull market came when investors started trading down the quality of their stocks.
August, historically, is a challenging month to navigate. Given the big surge in our stock market, some pullback is not totally out of the question. I wish everyone a profitable month ahead. God Bless.
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All investments is highly speculative in nature and involves substantial risk of loss. We encourage our reader to invest very carefully. We also encourage reader to get personal advice from your professional investment advisor and to make independent investigations before acting on information that we publish. Much of our information is derived directly from information published by companies or submitted to governmental agencies on which we believe are reliable but are without our independent verification. Therefore, we cannot assure you that the information is accurate or complete. We do not in any way whatsoever warrant or guarantee the success of any action you take in reliance on our statements. All information provided are for education only. Buyer beware,do you own due diligence.
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